Brexit: what say ye?

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Mo
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Re: Brexit: what say ye?

Post by Mo » 29 Jun 2016, 22:00

Warren wrote:
Fin Fang Foom wrote:It looks like the EU is going to fuck Britain so hard over this.
Meh. They'll be fucking themselves just as hard. It'll all blow over in six months.
It's a good thing no one has ever fucked themselves over just to spite someone.
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

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Shem
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Re: Brexit: what say ye?

Post by Shem » 29 Jun 2016, 23:59

Mo wrote:
Warren wrote:
Fin Fang Foom wrote:It looks like the EU is going to fuck Britain so hard over this.
Meh. They'll be fucking themselves just as hard. It'll all blow over in six months.
It's a good thing no one has ever fucked themselves over just to spite someone.
Or fucked themselves over by gut-shooting an ally so they can show what happens when you step to the boss without going for a kill. The EU plays nice, and Europe stops being a political entity and goes back to being a place that's only considered its own continent because it's grandfathered in.

I'm not sure why they expected the EU to be different than any other mafia, to be perfectly honest.
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Eric the .5b
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Re: Brexit: what say ye?

Post by Eric the .5b » 30 Jun 2016, 00:27

The "playing dirty" approach isn't too far from "fear will keep the local systems in line". And the EU simply isn't very scary. I see that approach as a bigger problem for the survival of the EU than for the UK.

I will be glad in a year or two when people freaking out across the pond realize it isn't the end of the world. They'll, of course, explain how nobody was really freaked out.
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Re: Brexit: what say ye?

Post by thoreau » 30 Jun 2016, 00:33

Eric the .5b wrote:They'll, of course, explain how nobody was really freaked out.
Hillary Clinton never voted for the Iraq War, Eric.
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Re: Brexit: what say ye?

Post by Aresen » 30 Jun 2016, 00:34

Shem wrote:
Mo wrote:
Warren wrote:
Fin Fang Foom wrote:It looks like the EU is going to fuck Britain so hard over this.
Meh. They'll be fucking themselves just as hard. It'll all blow over in six months.
It's a good thing no one has ever fucked themselves over just to spite someone.
Or fucked themselves over by gut-shooting an ally so they can show what happens when you step to the boss without going for a kill.
???
Would you mind parsing that?
The EU plays nice, and Europe stops being a political entity and goes back to being a place that's only considered its own continent because it's grandfathered in.

I'm not sure why they expected the EU to be different than any other mafia, to be perfectly honest.
I can see the point of the EU being tough. After all, they basically told the Greeks 'go ahead and pull the Grexit trigger'. But neither the EU nor the Brits are on the brink of collapse, with or without Brexit. The EU can only be tough to the extent that it doesn't seriously damage their own interests. Some mild self-damage is inevitable, but the finest satisfaction for the EU will be watching the UK disintigrate politically.
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Re: Brexit: what say ye?

Post by Aresen » 30 Jun 2016, 00:48

Eric the .5b wrote:The "playing dirty" approach isn't too far from "fear will keep the local systems in line". And the EU simply isn't very scary. I see that approach as a bigger problem for the survival of the EU than for the UK.
The EU is more or less at the "Articles of Confederation" stage at this time. If the Germans ever get tired of writing the checks, the EU is in serious shit. The biggest worry is if the Euro itself goes down, mainly because it is a reserve currency.
thoreau wrote:
Eric the .5b wrote:They'll, of course, explain how nobody was really freaked out.
Hillary Clinton never voted for the Iraq War, Eric.
We were always at war with Eastasia.
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Re: Brexit: what say ye?

Post by Mo » 30 Jun 2016, 07:13

Aresen wrote:
Shem wrote:
Mo wrote:
Warren wrote:
Fin Fang Foom wrote:It looks like the EU is going to fuck Britain so hard over this.
Meh. They'll be fucking themselves just as hard. It'll all blow over in six months.
It's a good thing no one has ever fucked themselves over just to spite someone.
Or fucked themselves over by gut-shooting an ally so they can show what happens when you step to the boss without going for a kill.
???
Would you mind parsing that?
The EU plays nice, and Europe stops being a political entity and goes back to being a place that's only considered its own continent because it's grandfathered in.

I'm not sure why they expected the EU to be different than any other mafia, to be perfectly honest.
I can see the point of the EU being tough. After all, they basically told the Greeks 'go ahead and pull the Grexit trigger'. But neither the EU nor the Brits are on the brink of collapse, with or without Brexit. The EU can only be tough to the extent that it doesn't seriously damage their own interests. Some mild self-damage is inevitable, but the finest satisfaction for the EU will be watching the UK disintigrate politically.
I think Shem is saying that sometimes it is beneficial to make a point that harms you to show what the consequences are for stepping out of line. In some ways, it prevents future harm by making others think twice about crossing you. Not hurting someone out of spite because it harms you only makes sense in a single stage game vs. a repeated game.
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

no one ever yells worldstar when a pet gets fucked up - dhex

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Taktix®
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Re: Brexit: what say ye?

Post by Taktix® » 30 Jun 2016, 09:05

Mo wrote:
Aresen wrote:
Shem wrote:
Mo wrote:
Warren wrote:
Fin Fang Foom wrote:It looks like the EU is going to fuck Britain so hard over this.
Meh. They'll be fucking themselves just as hard. It'll all blow over in six months.
It's a good thing no one has ever fucked themselves over just to spite someone.
Or fucked themselves over by gut-shooting an ally so they can show what happens when you step to the boss without going for a kill.
???
Would you mind parsing that?
The EU plays nice, and Europe stops being a political entity and goes back to being a place that's only considered its own continent because it's grandfathered in.

I'm not sure why they expected the EU to be different than any other mafia, to be perfectly honest.
I can see the point of the EU being tough. After all, they basically told the Greeks 'go ahead and pull the Grexit trigger'. But neither the EU nor the Brits are on the brink of collapse, with or without Brexit. The EU can only be tough to the extent that it doesn't seriously damage their own interests. Some mild self-damage is inevitable, but the finest satisfaction for the EU will be watching the UK disintigrate politically.
I think Shem is saying that sometimes it is beneficial to make a point that harms you to show what the consequences are for stepping out of line. In some ways, it prevents future harm by making others think twice about crossing you. Not hurting someone out of spite because it harms you only makes sense in a single stage game vs. a repeated game.
So, making an example of Britain?
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Mo
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Re: Brexit: what say ye?

Post by Mo » 30 Jun 2016, 09:08

Bingo bango.
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

no one ever yells worldstar when a pet gets fucked up - dhex

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D.A. Ridgely
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Re: Brexit: what say ye?

Post by D.A. Ridgely » 30 Jun 2016, 09:32

Nations behave worst when they behave as though they were people. Rather than throw a hissy-fit, if the EU continues to believe that the UK should remain a member, it needs to make its case dispassionately. Similarly, if the Brexit leadership has a more substantive reason for wanting out, it should make it. This isn't what will happen, but it's what should happen.

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Brexit: what say ye?

Post by JasonL » 30 Jun 2016, 09:38

I saw a goofy statistic that somewhere between 15% and 58% of laws that govern Britons were not passed by parliament but by nameless faceless etc. I get the point but wtf you can't do better than a range of 15-58?

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Re: Brexit: what say ye?

Post by the innominate one » 30 Jun 2016, 10:47

It's Britain's version of Jade Helm black helicopters UN takeover.
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Re: Brexit: what say ye?

Post by JD » 30 Jun 2016, 11:25

Anti-Brexit people are apparently now consoling themselves with fantasies that Brexit is actually illegal and impossible: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... wful-eu-uk

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Re: Brexit: what say ye?

Post by D.A. Ridgely » 30 Jun 2016, 11:35

JD wrote:Anti-Brexit people are apparently now consoling themselves with fantasies that Brexit is actually illegal and impossible: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... wful-eu-uk
Terrible, terrible piece. Geez, if I'd only known the bar was that low to teach law at Cambridge!

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Re: Brexit: what say ye?

Post by Aresen » 30 Jun 2016, 11:46

D.A. Ridgely wrote:
JD wrote:Anti-Brexit people are apparently now consoling themselves with fantasies that Brexit is actually illegal and impossible: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... wful-eu-uk
Terrible, terrible piece. Geez, if I'd only known the bar was that low to teach law at Cambridge!
There is a doctrine called Parliamentary Supremacy, which essentially says that Parliament can override any law. In Canada, we now have a constitution which defines certain limits to Parliamentary power, but the UK has no such over-ride. Essentially, the law is what the government says it is.

However, I did find this subhead particularly humourous:
Panic not: there are good reasons to believe the government’s decision to withdraw from the EU would not be legal, and that the UK is not going anywhere
Since virtually the entire governing class was in favour of "Remain", it is hardly correct to call it 'the Government's decision.'
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Re: Brexit: what say ye?

Post by Aresen » 30 Jun 2016, 11:51

D.A. Ridgely wrote:Nations behave worst when they behave as though they were people. Rather than throw a hissy-fit, if the EU continues to believe that the UK should remain a member, it needs to make its case dispassionately. Similarly, if the Brexit leadership has a more substantive reason for wanting out, it should make it. This isn't what will happen, but it's what should happen.
Foreign policy in political campaigns is usually facepalm-worthy. What makes for a great stump speech can really piss off the people you have to negotiate with.
If Trump supporters wanted a tough guy, why did they elect such a whiny bitch? - Mo

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Re: Brexit: what say ye?

Post by D.A. Ridgely » 30 Jun 2016, 12:20

Aresen wrote:
D.A. Ridgely wrote:
JD wrote:Anti-Brexit people are apparently now consoling themselves with fantasies that Brexit is actually illegal and impossible: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... wful-eu-uk
Terrible, terrible piece. Geez, if I'd only known the bar was that low to teach law at Cambridge!
There is a doctrine called Parliamentary Supremacy, which essentially says that Parliament can override any law. In Canada, we now have a constitution which defines certain limits to Parliamentary power, but the UK has no such over-ride. Essentially, the law is what the government says it is.

However, I did find this subhead particularly humourous:
Panic not: there are good reasons to believe the government’s decision to withdraw from the EU would not be legal, and that the UK is not going anywhere
Since virtually the entire governing class was in favour of "Remain", it is hardly correct to call it 'the Government's decision.'
Yeah, sure, I know all that. For that matter, I'm not sure the referendum has an actual positive legal effect in Great Britain, but he went on and on about how this might happen and a case could be made that something else and the majority can't run roughshod over the rights of the minority and yadda, yadda, yadda. The whole article in a nutshell was "There is legal authority to thwart the Brexit vote, whether it is invoked or not." BFD

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Re: Brexit: what say ye?

Post by Aresen » 30 Jun 2016, 12:26

The referendum was non-binding, but any attempt by the old line parties to ignore it would mean a UKIP majority in the next Parliament.
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Re: Brexit: what say ye?

Post by D.A. Ridgely » 30 Jun 2016, 12:51

Aresen wrote:The referendum was non-binding, but any attempt by the old line parties to ignore it would mean a UKIP majority in the next Parliament.
Maybe.

From what I've read, there are good reasons for leaving and good reasons for staying in the EU and most of the voters relied on neither list of reasons.

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Re: Brexit: what say ye?

Post by Aresen » 30 Jun 2016, 13:08

I think it would qualify as a 'hot-button' issue.

The only way I can see the traditional parties getting around it is for the EU to make enough (cosmetic?) concessions that they could go back and say "See, we got what you wanted, how about another neverendum?"
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Re: Brexit: what say ye?

Post by Shem » 30 Jun 2016, 13:09

Aresen wrote:
Shem wrote:Or fucked themselves over by gut-shooting an ally so they can show what happens when you step to the boss without going for a kill.
???
Would you mind parsing that?
At this point, it's pretty clear (to me, at least) that this vote was less about building a new order and more about UKIP and other Leave advocates throwing a punch to build their street cred. People who want to build a new order don't immediately turn around and say "well, it's up to our opponents to figure out the details. When you're building a new order, details are the only important part. They wanted to score some points and prepare for the next fight. Well, they got lucky and knocked the big guy on his ass. And now the big guy's got a choice; he can let everyone else run around thinking they can knock him on his ass too, or he can clean the clock of the guy who knocked him down and show everyone that it was a lucky hit. Now, it's probably better for his economic interest to try and hug it out and get things back to normal as quickly as possible. But being the big guy isn't just about money; it's about control. And having people walking around thinking they can knock you on your ass, well, it's horrible from a "maintaining control of your monopoly of force" perspective. And without that, you don't have a government, you have a Rotary Club.
The EU can only be tough to the extent that it doesn't seriously damage their own interests.
The problem with this is, it assumes that the people running the EU are disinterested technocrats, working to keep things running relatively smoothly. They're not. They're true believers in the system of united Europe. They genuinely believe that the peace of Europe and the stability of the world depends on having a strong, united Europe, with everyone working through Brussels. They're not going to give up their heroic storyline for something as banal as monetary interests, especially when those interests will wind up severely damaged in the long-term anyway. They'll win over the believers with the vision of unified Europe. If that's not enough people, well, you can always shake loose enough foot soldiers by blowing the "fuck the free riders" horn to at least get going, then inertia does the rest.

After all, if this was just about money, why would they have fought so hard to keep Greece the charity case in the Eurozone?
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Re: Brexit: what say ye?

Post by D.A. Ridgely » 30 Jun 2016, 13:31

Shem wrote: After all, if this was just about money, why would they have fought so hard to keep Greece the charity case in the Eurozone?
To make sure those souvlaki and gyro food trucks keep showing up outside EU headquarters?

So far, the funniest fallout to me was the EU deciding to remove English as one of its official languages. Sure, dream on, France!

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Re: Brexit: what say ye?

Post by Mo » 30 Jun 2016, 13:35

Shem wrote:After all, if this was just about money, why would they have fought so hard to keep Greece the charity case in the Eurozone?
To protect German exports by keeping the Euro weaker.
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

no one ever yells worldstar when a pet gets fucked up - dhex

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Re: Brexit: what say ye?

Post by thoreau » 30 Jun 2016, 13:36

Isn't English a co-official language of Ireland? I thought that if it was an official language of an EU member state then it would be an official language of the EU. Until the Irish get more serious about their Gaeilge lessons I think they're going to want the EU to keep using English.
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Re: Brexit: what say ye?

Post by Aresen » 30 Jun 2016, 13:36

Shem wrote:
Aresen wrote:
Shem wrote:Or fucked themselves over by gut-shooting an ally so they can show what happens when you step to the boss without going for a kill.
???
Would you mind parsing that?
At this point, it's pretty clear (to me, at least) that this vote was less about building a new order and more about UKIP and other Leave advocates throwing a punch to build their street cred. People who want to build a new order don't immediately turn around and say "well, it's up to our opponents to figure out the details. When you're building a new order, details are the only important part. They wanted to score some points and prepare for the next fight. Well, they got lucky and knocked the big guy on his ass. And now the big guy's got a choice; he can let everyone else run around thinking they can knock him on his ass too, or he can clean the clock of the guy who knocked him down and show everyone that it was a lucky hit. Now, it's probably better for his economic interest to try and hug it out and get things back to normal as quickly as possible. But being the big guy isn't just about money; it's about control. And having people walking around thinking they can knock you on your ass, well, it's horrible from a "maintaining control of your monopoly of force" perspective. And without that, you don't have a government, you have a Rotary Club.
OK. I thought you meant something like that.
The EU can only be tough to the extent that it doesn't seriously damage their own interests.
The problem with this is, it assumes that the people running the EU are disinterested technocrats, working to keep things running relatively smoothly. They're not. They're true believers in the system of united Europe. They genuinely believe that the peace of Europe and the stability of the world depends on having a strong, united Europe, with everyone working through Brussels. They're not going to give up their heroic storyline for something as banal as monetary interests, especially when those interests will wind up severely damaged in the long-term anyway. They'll win over the believers with the vision of unified Europe. If that's not enough people, well, you can always shake loose enough foot soldiers by blowing the "fuck the free riders" horn to at least get going, then inertia does the rest.

After all, if this was just about money, why would they have fought so hard to keep Greece the charity case in the Eurozone?
In the case of Greece, I think the EU had pretty well reached the point of "My way or the highway" by last June, which is why Tsipras caved. The EU had reached its limit on what it would do. They knew (and Tsipras knew even if the Greek electorate was still in denial) that their final offer was better than the horror show facing Greece if Grexit happened. More, they knew that if they did cave to Tsipras' demands, the Spanish and Portugese and maybe the Italians would be demanding similar concessions. The EU wasn't fighting to keep Greece in as much as it was working on damage control.

For the UK, the Eurocrats may love themselves some power, but I think they have to be aware that allowing Brexit to cause too much economic damage within the EU itself might help other anti-EU parties to gain power in other member states.
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