Brexit: what say ye?

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JD
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Brexit: what say ye?

Post by JD » 23 Jun 2016, 08:17

I realized we don't have a thread on Brexit, so here it is.

My personal take is mildly pro-leave. It would give Britain more autonomy to set rules and make agreements reflecting its unique conditions.

I'm not insensitive to the arguments that it would involve an economic blow, but what stops me from buying into them is that their proponents, at least in the articles I've seen, haven't really explained the mechanism that's supposed to cause so much hurt. Britain would lose access to the Common Market? You can be a European Economic Area member without being a full EU member - Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, Switzerland are.

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D.A. Ridgely
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Re: Brexit: what say ye?

Post by D.A. Ridgely » 23 Jun 2016, 08:24

It would probably lead to at least perfunctory border checks between Britain and France, which might be a mild annoyance when touring EuropeLand. If the Brits really wanted the return of their former sovereignty, they'd be petitioning to leave NATO.

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Mo
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Re: Brexit: what say ye?

Post by Mo » 23 Jun 2016, 08:34

I'm mildly pro stay. Primarily because if they leave, the changes would be relatively minor overall. If they wanted to maintain free trade a la Norway and Switzerland, which is what Leave is saying they want, they'd have to keep open borders and anything they sell into Europe, their primary trade partner, would have to fit EU regulation. So there are some benefits around the edges, but the economic losses seem to outweigh it. For example, lots of American firms have European HQs in London, if the UK is out of the EU, it's more likely they move to Amsterdam, Brussels, Frankfurt or elsewhere in the EU.
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dbcooper
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Re: Brexit: what say ye?

Post by dbcooper » 23 Jun 2016, 08:43

D.A. Ridgely wrote:It would probably lead to at least perfunctory border checks between Britain and France, which might be a mild annoyance when touring EuropeLand. If the Brits really wanted the return of their former sovereignty, they'd be petitioning to leave NATO.
They already have them. Britain isn't part of the Schengen agreement.
Slip inside a sleeping bag.

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JasonL
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Re: Brexit: what say ye?

Post by JasonL » 23 Jun 2016, 08:44

Most interesting part is signalling value for more departures. I don't think it matters one way or another for Britain, but it could be that loose thread that makes people not feel so great about writing checks to broke Europe forever because Unity is Important.

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Re: Brexit: what say ye?

Post by Mo » 23 Jun 2016, 08:54

What would also be interesting would be if Brexit happens, then Scotland leaves to join the EU/Eurozone. In many ways, the Euro is better suited for Scotland than the pound.
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

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D.A. Ridgely
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Re: Brexit: what say ye?

Post by D.A. Ridgely » 23 Jun 2016, 08:54

dbcooper wrote:
D.A. Ridgely wrote:It would probably lead to at least perfunctory border checks between Britain and France, which might be a mild annoyance when touring EuropeLand. If the Brits really wanted the return of their former sovereignty, they'd be petitioning to leave NATO.
They already have them. Britain isn't part of the Schengen agreement.
I wasn't aware of that. Last time I went from Dover to Calais there was no one in Calais checking anything.

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Fin Fang Foom
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Re: Brexit: what say ye?

Post by Fin Fang Foom » 23 Jun 2016, 10:07

It looks like to maintain free trade, Britain would still have to comply with EU regs and pay into its budget. They'd also lose out on any say in future negotiations, and I think they lose standing on challenging NTBs in EU courts.
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Re: Brexit: what say ye?

Post by the innominate one » 23 Jun 2016, 10:11

D.A. Ridgely wrote:
dbcooper wrote:
D.A. Ridgely wrote:It would probably lead to at least perfunctory border checks between Britain and France, which might be a mild annoyance when touring EuropeLand. If the Brits really wanted the return of their former sovereignty, they'd be petitioning to leave NATO.
They already have them. Britain isn't part of the Schengen agreement.
I wasn't aware of that. Last time I went from Dover to Calais there was no one in Calais checking anything.
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Re: Brexit: what say ye?

Post by Warren » 23 Jun 2016, 12:53

The EU is built on fairy dust. You can't have one currency and several central banks. Briton at least had the good sense to stay with the pound.
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Re: Brexit: what say ye?

Post by JasonL » 23 Jun 2016, 12:54

the innominate one wrote:
D.A. Ridgely wrote:
dbcooper wrote:
D.A. Ridgely wrote:It would probably lead to at least perfunctory border checks between Britain and France, which might be a mild annoyance when touring EuropeLand. If the Brits really wanted the return of their former sovereignty, they'd be petitioning to leave NATO.
They already have them. Britain isn't part of the Schengen agreement.
I wasn't aware of that. Last time I went from Dover to Calais there was no one in Calais checking anything.
Was it time for wine and cheese?
Always is.

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Re: Brexit: what say ye?

Post by Taktix® » 23 Jun 2016, 12:59

During my morning inoculation of NPR, they were discussing how badly the economic hit from a Brexit would impact the E.U., but without ever pointing out why a Brexit would mean an automatic hit to the economy (or that it might not be a "hit" at all).

I mean, there very well may be an economic hit (any large changes cause problems, though I'd wager it will be better for the U.K. long-term), but based on how worried the leftish world sounds about the Brexit hit, I think the real concern is the "hit" to proponents of centralization and the E.U.
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Re: Brexit: what say ye?

Post by Aresen » 23 Jun 2016, 13:21

D.A. Ridgely wrote:
dbcooper wrote:
D.A. Ridgely wrote:It would probably lead to at least perfunctory border checks between Britain and France, which might be a mild annoyance when touring EuropeLand. If the Brits really wanted the return of their former sovereignty, they'd be petitioning to leave NATO.
They already have them. Britain isn't part of the Schengen agreement.
I wasn't aware of that. Last time I went from Dover to Calais there was no one in Calais checking anything.
Are you sure the French border guards weren't on strike?
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Re: Brexit: what say ye?

Post by thoreau » 23 Jun 2016, 13:22

Aresen wrote:
D.A. Ridgely wrote:
dbcooper wrote:
D.A. Ridgely wrote:It would probably lead to at least perfunctory border checks between Britain and France, which might be a mild annoyance when touring EuropeLand. If the Brits really wanted the return of their former sovereignty, they'd be petitioning to leave NATO.
They already have them. Britain isn't part of the Schengen agreement.
I wasn't aware of that. Last time I went from Dover to Calais there was no one in Calais checking anything.
Are you sure the French border guards weren't on strike?
Syrian refugees should seek entrance to Europe via France. Just wait until August, when all French public employees are on vacation.
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Re: Brexit: what say ye?

Post by Aresen » 23 Jun 2016, 13:25

I am mildly pro-stay, mainly because of the role that London plays in the currency exchanges.

If the Brits leave, then a lot of firms are going to look at relocating out of London. Frankfurt, Paris and Amsterdam simply don't have the clout to take up the slack.
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Re: Brexit: what say ye?

Post by Fin Fang Foom » 23 Jun 2016, 13:32

Nerds and the IRA will unite to wipe Britain from the face of the earth if the Brexit goes through:

http://nypost.com/2016/06/23/how-brexit ... f-thrones/

English will be a language only spoken in Hell. And the US, Canada, Ireland, Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, and pretty much everywhere else, but not Britain, because they'll all be dead.
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Re: Brexit: what say ye?

Post by JasonL » 23 Jun 2016, 13:34

Aresen wrote:I am mildly pro-stay, mainly because of the role that London plays in the currency exchanges.

If the Brits leave, then a lot of firms are going to look at relocating out of London. Frankfurt, Paris and Amsterdam simply don't have the clout to take up the slack.
Did not know this.

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Re: Brexit: what say ye?

Post by thoreau » 23 Jun 2016, 13:38

If Britain leaves the EU, does that make Scotland more or less likely to make another attempt at secession?
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Mo
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Re: Brexit: what say ye?

Post by Mo » 23 Jun 2016, 13:45

thoreau wrote:If Britain leaves the EU, does that make Scotland more or less likely to make another attempt at secession?
More. They are very pro stay.
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

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Re: Brexit: what say ye?

Post by Aresen » 23 Jun 2016, 14:58

Mo wrote:
thoreau wrote:If Britain leaves the EU, does that make Scotland more or less likely to make another attempt at secession?
More. They are very pro stay.
Considering that many English would be perfectly happy if the Scots voted to seceed, that kind of reinforces the "Leave" side.

Side note: I was thinking of a thread on this topic. I thought a good title would be "What's for Brexit?"
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JD
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Re: Brexit: what say ye?

Post by JD » 23 Jun 2016, 15:23

Aresen wrote:IIf the Brits leave, then a lot of firms are going to look at relocating out of London. Frankfurt, Paris and Amsterdam simply don't have the clout to take up the slack.
Interesting - the firms are going to leave because they want an EU office?

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Re: Brexit: what say ye?

Post by Taktix® » 23 Jun 2016, 15:29

JD wrote:
Aresen wrote:IIf the Brits leave, then a lot of firms are going to look at relocating out of London. Frankfurt, Paris and Amsterdam simply don't have the clout to take up the slack.
Interesting - the firms are going to leave because they want an EU office?
If the U.K. leaves the E.U., they'll have to do business with the E.U. as if they were complete outsiders, and, surprise surprise, the large centralized E.U. has a bunch of protectionist barriers to trade with parties outside of its fief...

ETA: I heard an interview with a hovercraft maker in the U.K. who said her product costs $20k in the Eurozone and by the time it gets to India with all the tariffs and taxes and what not, it costs $47k. She was pro-split, by the way, because she would rather pay/charge that markup to clients in the Europe market and be free to trade with the rest of the world...
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Mo
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Re: Brexit: what say ye?

Post by Mo » 23 Jun 2016, 15:57

JD wrote:
Aresen wrote:IIf the Brits leave, then a lot of firms are going to look at relocating out of London. Frankfurt, Paris and Amsterdam simply don't have the clout to take up the slack.
Interesting - the firms are going to leave because they want an EU office?
Yup. The EU will still be a much bigger market than the UK alone.
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

no one ever yells worldstar when a pet gets fucked up - dhex

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Re: Brexit: what say ye?

Post by Sandy » 23 Jun 2016, 17:34

Looks like that one MP died successfully for the EU, so the troll in me won't get to enjoy as much popcorn.
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Re: Brexit: what say ye?

Post by dbcooper » 23 Jun 2016, 20:56

University of East Anglia rolling forecasts:

Slip inside a sleeping bag.

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