Brexit: what say ye?

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thoreau
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Re: Brexit: what say ye?

Post by thoreau » 02 Apr 2017, 14:27

Brexit gets Rocky in Gibraltar.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.nyt ... n.amp.html

Puns aside, this could get very complicated. Besides the Gibraltar issue, Scotland might try to leave the UK, and Northern Ireland might try to join the Republic. Spain has ample reason to look askance at those departures, for fear of setting precedents for Catalonia and the Basques. There are admitted differences between those possible departures from the UK and the Spanish situation, and Spain will surely play those up, but secession fever still runs the risk of getting people agitated.

So with Spain and the UK having possible sympathies there, Gibraltar gets more complicated. I know that they voted to stay in the UK in 2002, but they also voted against brexit in 2016. They may be divided and Spain will have to decide how to play with secessionist sentiments.

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D.A. Ridgely
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Re: Brexit: what say ye?

Post by D.A. Ridgely » 02 Apr 2017, 14:30

I see no way Northern Ireland joins the Irish Republic. The odds are roughly akin to Israel and the Arab States kissing and making up.

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thoreau
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Re: Brexit: what say ye?

Post by thoreau » 02 Apr 2017, 14:33

D.A. Ridgely wrote:I see no way Northern Ireland joins the Irish Republic. The odds are roughly akin to Israel and the Arab States kissing and making up.
Tequila. Lots and lots of tequila.

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Shem
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Re: Brexit: what say ye?

Post by Shem » 02 Apr 2017, 16:26

thoreau wrote:Besides the Gibraltar issue, Scotland might try to leave the UK, and Northern Ireland might try to join the Republic. Spain has ample reason to look askance at those departures, for fear of setting precedents for Catalonia and the Basques. There are admitted differences between those possible departures from the UK and the Spanish situation, and Spain will surely play those up, but secession fever still runs the risk of getting people agitated.
I repeat, Spain doesn't seem to care. As long as London gets a say, they have all the precedent they need.
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thoreau
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Re: Brexit: what say ye?

Post by thoreau » 02 Apr 2017, 16:33

Sure, but while they might be publicly saying that they don't care they must privately realize that if London says yes to Scotland and Scotland joins the EU, it becomes harder for Madrid to defend saying "No" to Catalonia.

Here's the ultimate dilemma for them: Gibraltar holds a referendum on whether to remain in the UK or join Spain. On the one hand, Spain has been wanting this since forever. On the other hand, they can't openly support a secession referendum.

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Shem
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Re: Brexit: what say ye?

Post by Shem » 02 Apr 2017, 16:51

thoreau wrote:Sure, but while they might be publicly saying that they don't care they must privately realize that if London says yes to Scotland and Scotland joins the EU, it becomes harder for Madrid to defend saying "No" to Catalonia.
Not really. They call it the "United Kingdom" for a reason. Scotland voted to join in the first place, and has a legally codified means of separation from the UK. Catalonia did not, nor do they have any legal means of pursing separation. Indeed, it is specifically contraindicated by the Spanish Constitution. Would the Supreme Court find a ruling of the German Federal Constitutional Court binding?
Here's the ultimate dilemma for them: Gibraltar holds a referendum on whether to remain in the UK or join Spain. On the one hand, Spain has been wanting this since forever. On the other hand, they can't openly support a secession referendum.
That is not going to happen. Gibraltar would sooner become independent. Which is only slightly less likely to happen.
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D.A. Ridgely
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Re: Brexit: what say ye?

Post by D.A. Ridgely » 02 Apr 2017, 17:22

Or Prudential could make an offer to buy it.

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thoreau
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Re: Brexit: what say ye?

Post by thoreau » 02 Apr 2017, 18:21

Gibraltar has fairly obvious reasons to want to stay in the EU. So it seems like they have a few options:
1) Suck it up and stay with the UK because that's how it is. Probably the most likely scenario.
2) Ask for some sort of accommodation to get at least some sort of EU access/privileges during the Brexit negotiations. I don't know enough about EU policy to know if that is feasible, but I know that a lot of British politicians have been looking for some sort of way to stay at least somewhat connected to the EU and a lot of people on the Continent have been all "Well, you guys wanted out, so you should live with what that means..." So I wouldn't hold my breath for that.
3) Outright independence. Not in the cards. No way does the UK give up that strategic base.
4) Join Spain. Again, no way does the UK give up that strategic base.
5) Some degree of independence on the spectrum between their current British Overseas Territory status and mere Commonwealth membership, so that they are autonomous enough to join the EU without the UK but tight enough with the UK that they get to keep the base. The Brits are masters at dealing with shades of grey in the independence<-->colony spectrum (can anyone explain the difference between a Crown Dependency and British Overseas Territory?), so they could probably find a way to make that work. If they wanted to.

I suppose that Spain could lean on Britain to give Gibraltar some legal status sufficient to join the EU, but I doubt that Spain wants to lean on anyone to grant more independence to restive provinces.
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Mo
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Re: Brexit: what say ye?

Post by Mo » 02 Apr 2017, 23:48

Not a good look for those that said the EU didn't do much to keep the peace in Europe.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... ael-fallon
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Re: Brexit: what say ye?

Post by dbcooper » 02 Apr 2017, 23:50

Gibraltar's economy is dependent on moving money into and out of the UK, so I'm not sure why they'd want to leave.
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Mo
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Re: Brexit: what say ye?

Post by Mo » 02 Apr 2017, 23:51

dbcooper wrote:Gibraltar's economy is dependent on moving money into and out of the UK, so I'm not sure why they'd want to leave.
Isn't it moving money from/to the EU into and out of the UK? Wouldn't Commonwealth Status, bilateral trade agreement and remain in EU be more beneficial for that?
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Re: Brexit: what say ye?

Post by dbcooper » 02 Apr 2017, 23:54

They have a lot of UK colonies etc competing with them. I don't see why the UK would let them have both.
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Mo
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Re: Brexit: what say ye?

Post by Mo » 03 Apr 2017, 00:11

They've got a strategic military base with a location like no one else.
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Mo
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Re: Brexit: what say ye?

Post by Mo » 22 Sep 2017, 23:06

his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

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Kolohe
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Re: Brexit: what say ye?

Post by Kolohe » 22 Sep 2017, 23:14

Mo wrote:
22 Sep 2017, 23:06
Not good.
Credit ratings of first world countries are complete bullshit. There's almost perfect information symmetry & transparency on their debt and highly liquid & efficient market mechanisms for pricing that debt.
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dbcooper
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Re: Brexit: what say ye?

Post by dbcooper » 22 Sep 2017, 23:23

IIRC, UK debt to gdp ratio is more than 10 percentage points lower than the US.

Brexit though.
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JasonL
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Re: Brexit: what say ye?

Post by JasonL » 23 Sep 2017, 08:17

I just look at rates and futures. Seen rating agency grandstanding too many times.

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dbcooper
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Re: Brexit: what say ye?

Post by dbcooper » 23 Sep 2017, 10:23

Mr. non-comittal over here.

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dbcooper
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Re: Brexit: what say ye?

Post by dbcooper » 23 Sep 2017, 10:24

JasonL wrote:
23 Sep 2017, 08:17
I just look at rates and futures. Seen rating agency grandstanding too many times.
Well uk debt this quarter hit some targets.
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dbcooper
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Re: Brexit: what say ye?

Post by dbcooper » 23 Sep 2017, 10:26

Yeah fuck, back to London times coming very soon.
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Mo
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Re: Brexit: what say ye?

Post by Mo » 10 Oct 2017, 14:48

Good to see that May has a realistic backup plan.

https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2017/10 ... nafta.html
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thoreau
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Re: Brexit: what say ye?

Post by thoreau » 10 Oct 2017, 14:55

Mo wrote:
10 Oct 2017, 14:48
Good to see that May has a realistic backup plan.

https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2017/10 ... nafta.html
Maybe while she's at it she can bring Catalonia and Kurdistan into NAFTA, and work with Jared Kushner to finally end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
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Re: Brexit: what say ye?

Post by Aresen » 10 Oct 2017, 15:52

I did not pay a great deal of attention to the news during my recent trip to London, but from the little I saw, it is finally dawning on the Brits that the Europeans intend to stick it to them hard on the way out.

(And there's not a great deal the Brits can do to prevent it.)
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Fin Fang Foom
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Re: Brexit: what say ye?

Post by Fin Fang Foom » 10 Oct 2017, 16:14

I almost feel sorry for May. She was personally pro-Brexit but campaigned against it due to party discipline. Now she'll be lucky if the UK doesn't end up crawling back to the EU in a decade as its constituent countries while having to accept the Euro.
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