Welcome, Robot Overlords, Er, Servants!

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Ellie
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Re: Welcome, Robot Overlords, Er, Servants!

Post by Ellie » 07 Apr 2016, 12:40

lunchstealer wrote:A broad variety of pleasuring?
What about homosexual gentlemen who don't prefer the broad variety of pleasuring? Ba-dum-bum!
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Re: Welcome, Robot Overlords, Er, Servants!

Post by JD » 07 Apr 2016, 13:51

"AIs will invent new pharmaceuticals to cure previously fatal diseases"

Agreed that the optimism on all this is way over the top, but there is a grain of truth in there. In the recent match in which AlphaGo beat Lee Sedol, a lot of analysts commented on how AlphaGo made moves that were strange and baffling, but which turned out to be indicative of a strategy that was not something a human would come up with, but was brilliant at a very deep level. One human lifetime ago, we didn't have any kind of AI, period, while people have been playing and analyzing Go for 2500 years, so you wouldn't think there wouldn't be anything new, and yet AlphaGo crushed the best human player in the world. Now if you imagine that sort of progress being made in other fields of human endeavor, the possibilities are immense. Of course, most things are not as easy to measure and retry as board games, either.
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Re: Welcome, Robot Overlords, Er, Servants!

Post by Aresen » 07 Apr 2016, 13:53

Ellie wrote:
lunchstealer wrote:A broad variety of pleasuring?
What about homosexual gentlemen who don't prefer the broad variety of pleasuring? Ba-dum-bum!
The gaybots will be equiped with gaydar.
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Re: Welcome, Robot Overlords, Er, Servants!

Post by JasonL » 07 Apr 2016, 15:33

Radical AI, radical life extension and full on singularity feel like exercises in naive extrapolation to me. Was just listening to a skeptic on econtalk and I found myself nodding for the most part. Guy was kind of focused on the need to direct technology which hurt his arguments, but I did agree with most of the rest of his concerns. I don't trust one bit inferences that are made from macro to micro to nano scales.

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Re: Welcome, Robot Overlords, Er, Servants!

Post by Warren » 07 Apr 2016, 16:38

JasonL wrote:Radical AI, radical life extension and full on singularity feel like exercises in naive extrapolation to me. Was just listening to a skeptic on econtalk and I found myself nodding for the most part. Guy was kind of focused on the need to direct technology which hurt his arguments, but I did agree with most of the rest of his concerns. I don't trust one bit inferences that are made from macro to micro to nano scales.
My feeling is that there's no knowing when we'll figure out something we don't know yet. OTOH I'm confident that we'll get better at what we have figured out. So I'm confident that self-driving cars and "printed" molecules, are just around the corner, because those things already exist. I am surprised that cloning hasn't advanced much. Dolly the sheep was twenty years ago.
OTOH I see no reason to expect cold fusion or cheap solar power anytime soon.
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Re: Welcome, Robot Overlords, Er, Servants!

Post by Aresen » 07 Apr 2016, 17:09

Warren wrote:My feeling is that there's no knowing when we'll figure out something we don't know yet.
:? :? :? :? :?
OTOH I see no reason to expect cold fusion or cheap solar power anytime soon.
We will never see cold fusion. Hot fusion, with sustained high plasma densities at 6 x 107K is something I have been hoping for since I first knew what it meant.

Cheap solar power already exists if all you are doing is drying laundry. ;) Solar-electric power can be cost effective in certain circumstances, but it is never going to match hydro or coal for power generation.
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Re: Welcome, Robot Overlords, Er, Servants!

Post by dbcooper » 07 Apr 2016, 17:18

JasonL wrote:Radical AI, radical life extension and full on singularity feel like exercises in naive extrapolation to me. Was just listening to a skeptic on econtalk and I found myself nodding for the most part. Guy was kind of focused on the need to direct technology which hurt his arguments, but I did agree with most of the rest of his concerns. I don't trust one bit inferences that are made from macro to micro to nano scales.
He was pretty good, as you would expect from an actual expert in the science.
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Re: Welcome, Robot Overlords, Er, Servants!

Post by Highway » 07 Apr 2016, 17:21

Aresen wrote:
Warren wrote:My feeling is that there's no knowing when we'll figure out something we don't know yet.
:? :? :? :? :?
OTOH I see no reason to expect cold fusion or cheap solar power anytime soon.
We will never see cold fusion. Hot fusion, with sustained high plasma densities at 6 x 107K is something I have been hoping for since I first knew what it meant.

Cheap solar power already exists if all you are doing is drying laundry. ;) Solar-electric power can be cost effective in certain circumstances, but it is never going to match hydro or coal for power generation.
I think this last is a misstatement. Solar-electric may not be cheaper than those other two now, but that's because there are significant externalities that have not been priced into either coal or hydro power. We are starting to see those externalities worked into the price of coal, and hence why coal is cratering for a source of electricity. Like absolutely dying. Hydro has a different problem: Where you can put it, it's relatively cheap, but it also has externalities that are being worked at. That's one reason why new Hydro power is almost unheard of. The other is that it's not scalable. You can put Hydro where you can put it, and most of those places are already taken. And where those conditions don't exist, it's impossible.

Price in externalities for coal and hydro, and they're nowhere near as cheap.
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Re: Welcome, Robot Overlords, Er, Servants!

Post by Warren » 07 Apr 2016, 17:25

Aresen wrote:
Warren wrote:My feeling is that there's no knowing when we'll figure out something we don't know yet.
:? :? :? :? :?
I'm saying that it's folly to say "We're X years away from blah blah blah" when BBB is an unsolved problem. But it's a reasonable thing to say when BBB is solved but it's still expensive, inefficient, etc.
OTOH I see no reason to expect cold fusion or cheap solar power anytime soon.
We will never see cold fusion.
I don't know about that.
Solar-electric power can be cost effective in certain circumstances, but it is never going to match hydro or coal for power generation.
Oh no. I'm confident solar-electric so cheap it makes fossil fuel power generation obsolete is possible. But I have no idea how long it will take to figure it out. Could be next year. Could be next century. Course, by then we'll have passed through the singularity and won't need electric power. Or maybe not.
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Re: Welcome, Robot Overlords, Er, Servants!

Post by JD » 08 Apr 2016, 14:29

I found this interesting paper about a relatively early (1981) successful application of narrow AI by Doug Lenat. Lenat had developed a program called EURISKO which could not only use heuristics to develop theories, but could also improve its own heuristics. Lenat decided to try it out on a tournament of Traveller TCS - basically, simulated space fleet combat, where you build a fleet of vessels with values and costs for different kinds of weapons, armor, engines, etc.

Humans tended to develop some fairly predictable kinds of fleets, but, freed from preconceptions, EURISKO experimented and came up with a very unlikely-looking fleet that went on to demolish every single human opponent. For example, EURISKO observed that very small, very agile, unarmed "lifeboats" were almost impossible to hit, so all of its fleets included one of those. But then it observed that it had to be able to counter that strategy...so all of its fleets thereafter included one vessel whose only purpose was killing lifeboats.

After EURISKO won a decisive victory in 1981, the tournament directors changed the rules at the last minute for the 1982 tournament, but EURISKO's heuristics were general enough that it was able to adapt and it won again. After that, the directors declared they would shut down the tournament if it won again in 1983, so Lenat withdrew it.

Amusingly, EURISKO even discovered how to bend its own rules: since it was trying to maximize its score, and it could develop new heuristics to do so, it came up with a heuristic that looked for valuable heuristics, then took credit for them!
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Re: Welcome, Robot Overlords, Er, Servants!

Post by JasonL » 08 Apr 2016, 14:35

Oh no. I'm confident solar-electric so cheap it makes fossil fuel power generation obsolete is possible. But I have no idea how long it will take to figure it out.
I think very cheap solar that doesn't produce a fraction of watts required to run a country is pretty close. I don't see anything obvious to suggest solar electric can convert enough to be a primary source. You would get a big boost if you could get storage under control and like fusion awesome storage is always right around the corner.

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Re: Welcome, Robot Overlords, Er, Servants!

Post by Warren » 08 Apr 2016, 14:43

JasonL wrote:
Oh no. I'm confident solar-electric so cheap it makes fossil fuel power generation obsolete is possible. But I have no idea how long it will take to figure it out.
I think very cheap solar that doesn't produce a fraction of watts required to run a country is pretty close. I don't see anything obvious to suggest solar electric can convert enough to be a primary source. You would get a big boost if you could get storage under control and like fusion awesome storage is always right around the corner.
It's been a while since I dug into it, but I think something north of 20% of the grid during daylight hours can be supplied by solar if we get efficient collectors.

You're right about storage. So frustrating too. If I had to bet I'd have bet on capacitors, but if that was going to be the solution, we'd have it by now.
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Re: Welcome, Robot Overlords, Er, Servants!

Post by Highway » 08 Apr 2016, 14:56

Right now, all the promising development seems to have been in batteries, and it's making some moves, albeit pretty slowly. As a proxy for general development, looking at something like the FIA World Endurance Championship, for the last few years they've had Audi running a flywheel mechanical collector, Toyota running a supercapacitor, and Porsche running a battery system for their respective hybrid storage. Starting this year, everyone will be running batteries, and all are going to a 6MJ system, up from the 2 and 4 MJ systems that Audi and Toyota were running, all to match Porsche who fairly spanked them last year with a 6MJ battery system (and that is with Toyota showing up with a car that was up to 4 seconds per lap faster than its own car the previous year).

So yeah, it's a very limited sample size in a very specific usage, but the point is that batteries are 1) undergoing significant development as an energy storage medium and 2) are increasingly flexible in their usage.
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Re: Welcome, Robot Overlords, Er, Servants!

Post by thoreau » 08 Apr 2016, 15:16

There's really no way that smart money will chase the storage problem unless solar is cheap. Solar is getting cheap, so soon I think we'll see smart money chasing the storage problem.

Fusion is one of those things that I think will happen at some point in human history, but I'll be damned if I know when. "Twenty years away" is just another way of saying "I have no clue."
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Re: Welcome, Robot Overlords, Er, Servants!

Post by JasonL » 08 Apr 2016, 15:23

Note though that cheap solar is low efficiency even for solar. High efficiency solar is still not cheap and it isn't high efficiency compared to anything else either. The energy is there, you can grab it, but the density is low. I always look at what the leaders are doing. Highest level of subsidy in the world for solar is germany, and they produce 6% of demand with it. Ugh.

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Re: Welcome, Robot Overlords, Er, Servants!

Post by Highway » 08 Apr 2016, 15:56

JasonL wrote:Note though that cheap solar is low efficiency even for solar. High efficiency solar is still not cheap and it isn't high efficiency compared to anything else either. The energy is there, you can grab it, but the density is low. I always look at what the leaders are doing. Highest level of subsidy in the world for solar is germany, and they produce 6% of demand with it. Ugh.
As usual, the response is that cheap solar is also getting more efficient with time (or that higher efficiency solar is getting cheaper).

I do wonder if Germany has tried to slow down on their rollout of solar, because of the big giveaways with it.

And for outright efficiency comparisons, I think that's kind of a red herring. Is more better? Yeah. But it's not a situation where anyone is wasting effort because they don't capture a higher percentage of the energy coming from the sun. If you consider that a developed space without a solar panel has 0% efficiency, then putting any panel there is an efficiency increase. That marginal increase is what should be compared to the effort to put the panel in (manufacturing, installing, maintenance), not whether the panel isn't capturing the rest of the energy. Yes, efficiency helps your revenue from the panel, but an inefficient panel is not a dead end. It can be replaced when a higher efficiency panel makes the capital cost worth while. And the revenue is a lower, there's still those externalities I mentioned earlier distorting prices (the argument could be made that the subsidies for solar are trying to adjust cost for externalities in other generation methods, but I think everyone would agree it's not a good way to do it. Those methods should bear the costs, not monkeying with other costs to adjust it relatively).
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Re: Welcome, Robot Overlords, Er, Servants!

Post by JasonL » 08 Apr 2016, 16:24

It matters to the extent you think it is a full replacement for higher density options. I don't dispute some thing like eventually getting to 20% offset which would be a remarkable technological improvement. I raise a skeptical eyebrow at the idea of full replacement anytime soon if ever.

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Re: Welcome, Robot Overlords, Er, Servants!

Post by JD » 19 Oct 2017, 10:55

Google's new Go-playing AI, AlphaGo Zero, seems to be seriously impressive. It started completely ignorant and playing at random, but used feedback to constantly improve. After training, when pitted against the last-generation AlphaGo (which, as you'll recall, trounced 18-time world champion Lee Sedol), it won 100 games to zero. And the speed of its improvement was stunning:
Writing in the journal Nature, the researchers describe how AlphaGo Zero started off terribly, progressed to the level of a naive amateur, and ultimately deployed highly strategic moves used by grandmasters, all in a matter of days. It discovered one common play, called a joseki, in the first 10 hours. Other moves, with names such as “small avalanche” and “knight’s move pincer” soon followed. After three days, the program had discovered brand new moves that human experts are now studying. Intriguingly, the program grasped some advanced moves long before it discovered simpler ones, such as a pattern called a ladder that human Go players tend to grasp early on.
As I've said before, Go is still a relatively simple problem - it's a perfect-knowledge game, turn-taking is in strict order, there are fewer than 360 moves available to you at any point in the game, etc. - but this does point to the possibilities of continuous-feedback improvement.
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Re: Welcome, Robot Overlords, Er, Servants!

Post by JD » 19 Oct 2017, 13:27

Been thinking about this all morning and wondering what other fields this kind of learning might usefully be employed in and what its limitations might be. I know that AIs tend to do less well in imperfect-information games but I'm wondering if they might still be useful at coming up with optimal strategies given what information remains unknown. I would love to be able to play around with one of these systems and point it at a Star Trader/Drug Wars-type problem. And, of course, if it does well there, you point it at the real stock market to see how it does. :^)
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Re: Welcome, Robot Overlords, Er, Servants!

Post by Mo » 06 Dec 2017, 23:11

Hmmm....
The Los Angeles Police Department asked drivers to avoid navigation apps, which are steering users onto more open routes — in this case, streets in the neighborhoods that are on fire.
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Re: Welcome, Robot Overlords, Er, Servants!

Post by Sandy » 07 Dec 2017, 10:35

Mo wrote:
06 Dec 2017, 23:11
Hmmm....
The Los Angeles Police Department asked drivers to avoid navigation apps, which are steering users onto more open routes — in this case, streets in the neighborhoods that are on fire.
On the one hand, fire. On the other hand...it's commuting in LA. If the streets weren't so narrow here, I'd imagine a lot of people would take advantage if a major wildfire raged through Arlington.
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Re: Welcome, Robot Overlords, Er, Servants!

Post by Mo » 13 Mar 2018, 08:29

I did not realize that years of watching Saturday morning cartoons would help in the robot uprising.

his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

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Re: Welcome, Robot Overlords, Er, Servants!

Post by tr0g » 13 Mar 2018, 14:16

Sandy wrote:
07 Dec 2017, 10:35
Mo wrote:
06 Dec 2017, 23:11
Hmmm....
The Los Angeles Police Department asked drivers to avoid navigation apps, which are steering users onto more open routes — in this case, streets in the neighborhoods that are on fire.
On the one hand, fire. On the other hand...it's commuting in LA. If the streets weren't so narrow here, I'd imagine a lot of people would take advantage if a major wildfire raged through Arlington.
I saw something about this earlier. I don't remember seeing any stories about GPS taking people underwater during Harvey. So maybe Houston drivers are smarter than LA drivers? (Having driven in both cities, I find this implausible.) Or did the algorithms mark streets as impassable when they were flooded? I use Waze, which has user feedback for that, but I dunno if Google & Apple Maps have an analogous system for feedback.
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Re: Welcome, Robot Overlords, Er, Servants!

Post by Jennifer » 13 Mar 2018, 16:12

tr0g wrote:
13 Mar 2018, 14:16
I dunno if Google & Apple Maps have an analogous system for feedback.
Google does; whenever Jeff and I are driving around metro Atlanta and come across an unexpected traffic backup, Jeff calls up Google Maps on his phone and most of the time, it'll show how far ahead the backup is, and accurately, too.
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Re: Welcome, Robot Overlords, Er, Servants!

Post by Pham Nuwen » 14 Mar 2018, 00:07

Mo wrote:
13 Mar 2018, 08:29
I did not realize that years of watching Saturday morning cartoons would help in the robot uprising.

Good stuff. My first thought was, "Get fucked, skynet."
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