DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

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lunchstealer
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by lunchstealer »

Warren wrote:
18 Mar 2020, 15:37
lunchstealer wrote:
18 Mar 2020, 14:45
My boss still won't switch payroll to gold-backed bitcoin.
As if you asked.
IS JOKE. IS NO SUCH THING AS GOLD-BACKED BITCOIN. CRYPTO IS CRYPTO-BACKED NOT GOLD-BACKED.
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Pham Nuwen
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Pham Nuwen »

LOUD NOISES!!

Image
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Pham Nuwen
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Pham Nuwen »

Man. I really want to buy some jetblue stock. I just don't want to do it because i'm thinking it's going to go down further. I wanted frontier airlines but I didn't realize they were a private outfit.
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Mo
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Mo »

Spirit!!!!
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

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Warren
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Warren »

lunchstealer wrote:
18 Mar 2020, 18:40
Warren wrote:
18 Mar 2020, 15:37
lunchstealer wrote:
18 Mar 2020, 14:45
My boss still won't switch payroll to gold-backed bitcoin.
As if you asked.
IS JOKE. IS NO SUCH THING AS GOLD-BACKED BITCOIN. CRYPTO IS CRYPTO-BACKED NOT GOLD-BACKED.
*sets sarcasm to kill*
Nohhhhh
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Jennifer
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Jennifer »

If anyone sees flaws in my logic here, PLEASE tell me if you think I'm wrong, and why: I'm thinking the market hasn't bottomed out yet. in part because, here in the US (outside of a couple places in California) we haven't even gone of "full lockdown" mode yet -- IIRC there are at least six or seven states that aren't even closing bars and restaurants. But I figure sooner or later we WILL go into lockdown (at least, more of one than we've seen already), and when that happens the markets will go down again.

Does anyone see any problems with this line of thought?
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Warren
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Warren »

We could see another leg down in the market, but I don't think we're going to go full lockdown. I expect the number of new cases to start begin to start slowing down in a couple of weeks.
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Jadagul
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Jadagul »

Jennifer wrote:
19 Mar 2020, 16:14
If anyone sees flaws in my logic here, PLEASE tell me if you think I'm wrong, and why: I'm thinking the market hasn't bottomed out yet. in part because, here in the US (outside of a couple places in California) we haven't even gone of "full lockdown" mode yet -- IIRC there are at least six or seven states that aren't even closing bars and restaurants. But I figure sooner or later we WILL go into lockdown (at least, more of one than we've seen already), and when that happens the markets will go down again.

Does anyone see any problems with this line of thought?
If enough other investors believe that, it should be priced in already.

I'm not sure whether I believe that; stock market reaction has been a little jerky in a way that means it's maybe not pricing in expected future paths? But I'm not sure I disbelieve it either.

Or maybe what I believe is there's a decent chance we're at the bottom and a decent chance we're not. And current prices are sort of an average of "they fall sharply again" and "no, they don't."

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D.A. Ridgely
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by D.A. Ridgely »

IOW, "it will fluctuate."

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Painboy
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Painboy »

Regardless, trying to time the market is generally a fool's errand. If for no other reason than almost everyone else is also trying to do it.

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Hugh Akston
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Hugh Akston »

Painboy wrote:
19 Mar 2020, 17:06
Regardless, trying to time the market is generally a fool's errand. If for no other reason than almost everyone else is also trying to do it.
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Warren
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Warren »

Painboy wrote:
19 Mar 2020, 17:06
Regardless, trying to time the market is generally a fool's errand. If for no other reason than almost everyone else is also trying to do it.
By the laws of Bwandu Huur I swear: I am that fool.
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Aresen
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Aresen »

Jadagul wrote:
19 Mar 2020, 16:55
Or maybe what I believe is there's a decent chance we're at the bottom and a decent chance we're not. And current prices are sort of an average of "they fall sharply again" and "no, they don't."
"Things will happen in the future."

TBS, I dumped the largest chunk of my Canadian bank shares a little over 2 years ago, thinking the market was due for an adjustment (and then watched sadly as they continued to rise). I am still sitting on a large chunk of cash. I have some shares in mind to buy at a specific target price.
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Jennifer
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Jennifer »

The state of Kansas is going under lockdown/shelter-in-place order.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/no-lo ... r-BB11tHub
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Jennifer
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Jennifer »

Shit, didn't see that Illinois and New York are too. (I was on the phone and off news sites for two whole hours -- no wonder I'm behind the times.)

https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronav ... 00320.html
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Kolohe »

Someone said on twitter that Goldman Sachs is predicting negative twenty five percent (-25%) economic growth for the quarter, and also pointed out that in the aftermath of the USSR collapse it was only -15%.
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by thoreau »

Recovering from a planned shutdown is different from recovering from a collapse in the face of mismanagement and unsustainable models.

The US system does have mismanaged and unsustainable things, but those aren't what are taking us down right now. I think we can recover from this more quickly than we would from a different sort of shock.

OTOH, I think we need to ask some hard questions about why it's been so goddamn difficult to get COVID-19 tests in the US. Yes, the Trump administration is part of the answer, but I suspect that there are deeper system failures, but in the sclerotic bureaucracy and the gatekeepers of the private sector. Our healthcare system should be simplified relative to its current form. Whether that streamlining means cutting from the public or private sectors, there's a lot to fix.
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Shem
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Shem »

thoreau wrote:
20 Mar 2020, 19:28
The US system does have mismanaged and unsustainable things, but those aren't what are taking us down right now. I think we can recover from this more quickly than we would from a different sort of shock.
Depends. All the restaurants and attractions can't hold out forever, and once they're gone, they won't be coming back, meaning the people who work at them will have to find new work. We're already getting WARN Notices for restaurants and resorts, and they're not required to issue those for temporary layoffs. They're expecting to have to cut at least some people loose.
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Warren
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Warren »

Shem wrote:
20 Mar 2020, 21:16
thoreau wrote:
20 Mar 2020, 19:28
The US system does have mismanaged and unsustainable things, but those aren't what are taking us down right now. I think we can recover from this more quickly than we would from a different sort of shock.
Depends. All the restaurants and attractions can't hold out forever, and once they're gone, they won't be coming back, meaning the people who work at them will have to find new work. We're already getting WARN Notices for restaurants and resorts, and they're not required to issue those for temporary layoffs. They're expecting to have to cut at least some people loose.
The more I look at the current situation, and especially the more I look at the response that will be done in the name of the crisis, the more horrified I become.

I see hard times coming. Harder times than this country has seen since the Civil War.
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Warren
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Warren »

Serious question: Does anybody believe we will avoid double digit inflation past the next decade?
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Pham Nuwen
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Pham Nuwen »

Yes.
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Warren
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Warren »

Pham Nuwen wrote:
23 Mar 2020, 09:13
Yes.
please show your work
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Pham Nuwen
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Pham Nuwen »

I dont have to. Your generation and the boomers wont allow it. See last 40 years.
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Aresen
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Aresen »

DAR and I are two of the few on this site who remember the stagflation of the 1970s and the 18% interest rates it took to control it.

I think if we get those again, Bernie Sanders is going to look like a moderate.
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JasonL
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by JasonL »

Stagflation broke progressivism as a political force in America for 30+ years.

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