DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

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Warren
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Warren »

JasonL wrote:
26 Feb 2020, 21:06
Our treasuries are being bid down globally. Nobody trusts any other instruments in the same way.
Our debt is in demand, and we are going supply all you can eat.
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Mo
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Mo »

JasonL wrote:
26 Feb 2020, 21:06
Our treasuries are being bid down globally. Nobody trusts any other instruments in the same way.
Part of it is also the supply. I don't get why negative yield countries like Germany don't issue a ton more debt since they're sitting on negative yeilds. I would borrow the fuck out of a ton of money for infra projects. Projects with a return of 0% would literally be profitable.
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by JasonL »

I don't understand that either.

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JasonL
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Post by JasonL »

It's as though US debt is a separate asset class and people don't see tradeoffs with other sovereign debt because they aren't the same thing.

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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Aresen »

JasonL wrote:
27 Feb 2020, 10:25
It's as though US debt is a separate asset class and people don't see tradeoffs with other sovereign debt because they aren't the same thing.
The US dollar is the only currency right now that can act as a reserve currency. It isn't likely to suffer inflation, the country is stable and democratic, and the banking system is sound.

The Euro might be able to step in if everyone weren't concerned about whether the EU was going to fall apart entirely.

WRT to Mo's comment about the Germans, they have a phobia about government debt and inflation that dates back to the Weimar era. The recent near-catastrophe with the PIIGS reminded them of that. I suspect that, if the Germans had their preference, they would have no debt at all.
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Mo
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Mo »

There are non-German countries, that did not experience hyperinflation, that are similarly reticent.
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by JasonL »

What strikes me is none of the reserve currency stable democracy stuff is new but the bottomless demand for treasuries is kinda the new normal post 2008. Did people in charge of portfolios come away from that saying the US is the cause of all this yes and the recovery was tepid but look how many mountains they moved they seem to be able to basically come back to normal after an event like that and we have no confidence anyone else could do it without melting? Maybe pricing a greater than it seems at first blush risk premium into long term EU stability and literally trusting nothing about China?

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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Mo »

I think the world is awash in cash and there's nowhere to park it. The solid euro locales are at negative yield, so you're not getting return there. UK is at sub 60 basis points, so see above. Japan is Japan and there's no return there, so you're basically left with China as the big economy left and LOL.
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Kolohe »

There was always to me good cyclic answers for the past dozen years - flight to safety in 08 debt crisis, flight from Euro in Greek debt crisis, flight from the pound in Brexit crisis. But those at least in my layman's opinion should all be played out.

I understand the 'ain't no party like a US treasury party because the US treasury party don't stop'. But I am kinda wondering where all that global cash is in fact coming from? The other thing this is paired with is kinda low commodity prices (particularly oil) so those usual sovereign wealth suspects have got to have less cash flow than they normally do. And it isn't really stopping (yet) VC money from getting dumped into stuff like Uber and others which are hemorrhaging capital.
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Warren »

Kolohe wrote:
27 Feb 2020, 14:38
ain't no party like a US treasury party because the US treasury party don't stop
SOLD!
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Post by Shem »

Kolohe wrote:
27 Feb 2020, 14:38
But I am kinda wondering where all that global cash is in fact coming from?
Bet you a coke a non-trivial portion of it is the same place real estate buyers in major cities are coming from; Chinese and Russian investors who are trying to find ways to store money overseas that are difficult for home to seize, and easy to sell to avoid sanctions.
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Post by Mo »

TIPS now have a negative yield, even the 30 year.
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Warren »

The S&P is down 25% in the past month.
I'm assuming this is all Beervid panic. Or is it?
When people start buying sportsball tickets again, will we bounce back just as fast?
Is the FED out of bullets?
Is this a buying opportunity?
Are we all fucked?
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Post by Painboy »

Well Buffet doesn't seem to think so (if that matters to anyone).

The big question is if this thing is going to be something everyone can just hunker down for a few weeks and wait out. If it is then it will likely be more of a seasonal lull. If it drags on longer, who knows.

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Post by JD »

Warren wrote:
12 Mar 2020, 10:50
The S&P is down 25% in the past month.
I'm assuming this is all Beervid panic. Or is it?
When people start buying sportsball tickets again, will we bounce back just as fast?
Is the FED out of bullets?
Is this a buying opportunity?
Are we all fucked?
I vote "buying opportunity". We've lived through shocks before, and this is a great opportunity to pick up shares on the (relatively) cheap.
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Post by Hugh Akston »

JD wrote:
12 Mar 2020, 13:48
Warren wrote:
12 Mar 2020, 10:50
The S&P is down 25% in the past month.
I'm assuming this is all Beervid panic. Or is it?
When people start buying sportsball tickets again, will we bounce back just as fast?
Is the FED out of bullets?
Is this a buying opportunity?
Are we all fucked?
I vote "buying opportunity". We've lived through shocks before, and this is a great opportunity to pick up shares on the (relatively) cheap.
Once trading is allowed again, that is.
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Post by dbcooper »

Image
Slip inside a sleeping bag.

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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Warren »

Holy Fuck. Just tuned into CNBC and we are so humped. They are about to turn on the money printing machine and they're not going to turn it off till out cities are in flames and the streets run red with blood.
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Mo »

So lower right?

Thankfully crypto is safe ....
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Warren »

Mo wrote:
18 Mar 2020, 11:30
So lower right?

Thankfully crypto is safe ....
Crypto might get a big boost but there the resistance to adaption is a big hurdle.
Gold is still gold.
Whatever you think is a good store of value, things are selling at fire sale prices right now. Your dollars ain't never gonna be worth more than they are right now. Or maybe a week from now?
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Mo
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Post by Mo »

BTC has been falling through the floor and I don’t think the halving event is going to help much. And looking at the DXY’s current movement, the dollar is looking pretty good. Gold is in the same place it was before COVID hit the news.
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

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Post by Warren »

It's not accurate to say BTC is "falling through the floor". Yes there was a big sell off a week ago, but it's still up 25% from a year ago. BTC and other crypto is not going to be the savior of the economy unless people start using it. Like when you decide to use it not just as a speculative investment but as a means of making payments. There is a lot of resistance to that.

I don't think the USD looks so good in the face of what's coming. I hear no voices saying "Whoa let's not just start cutting checks to every man, woman, and child in the country. Everybody is saying YOU GET A CHECK! AND YOU GET A CHECK! We've been very irresponsible the past decade when we should have been storing our nuts. Now we're humped and we are about to kill the goose.
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Post by lunchstealer »

My boss still won't switch payroll to gold-backed bitcoin.
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Post by Warren »

lunchstealer wrote:
18 Mar 2020, 14:45
My boss still won't switch payroll to gold-backed bitcoin.
As if you asked.
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Post by Eric the .5b »

I do miss E-Gold.
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