DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

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D.A. Ridgely
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by D.A. Ridgely »

But what about my Gary U.S. Bonds record collection?

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Pham Nuwen
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Pham Nuwen »

JasonL wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 22:43
Pham Nuwen wrote:"You're an inverted fucking bond yield!" sounds like an amazing insult. Need Mo and JasonL to confirm though.
Uh. No, not really. Seems like it would work in a yo mamma format, but it isn’t very dank these days. See historical yield and time horizon relationships (longer bonds pay more than shorter bonds, which gets flipped in an inverted yield curve) are distorted by the large global demand for US treasuries- so instead of oh no recession worries pushing down the rates for long bonds, it’s just supply and demand - US debt doesn’t have to pay much to attract investors.

So yo momma is curved like inverted yield may suggest she’s in demand or may suggest she’s not long term desirable depending on who you ask.
I don't know how you made that sound boring but you did. Bravo I guess. :(
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lunchstealer
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by lunchstealer »

JasonL wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 22:43
Pham Nuwen wrote:"You're an inverted fucking bond yield!" sounds like an amazing insult. Need Mo and JasonL to confirm though.
Uh. No, not really. Seems like it would work in a yo mamma format, but it isn’t very dank these days. See historical yield and time horizon relationships (longer bonds pay more than shorter bonds, which gets flipped in an inverted yield curve) are distorted by the large global demand for US treasuries- so instead of oh no recession worries pushing down the rates for long bonds, it’s just supply and demand - US debt doesn’t have to pay much to attract investors.

So yo momma is curved like inverted yield may suggest she’s in demand or may suggest she’s not long term desirable depending on who you ask.
But there's still a lot of volume in your mom.
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Mo
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Mo »

Warren wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 18:05
Mo wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 16:28
What’s crazy is the 2 year usually inverts before the 3 month. The other way around has never happened before.
I did not know that.

I think we uninverted intraday. So it's not the strong "recession next year" signal everyone thought. Even so, the inversion is a symptom not the cause, and all the stuff that flattened the curve to begin with is still there.
The 3-10 is still inverted and the 3-10 is the more meaningful spread.
NY Fed wrote:The best maturity combination may be three months and ten years. Other choices lead to results that are highly correlated with our own, but whatever combination is selected should be used consistently in both analysis and prediction.
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Warren
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Warren »

Mo wrote:
15 Aug 2019, 07:10
The 3-10 is still inverted and the 3-10 is the more meaningful spread.
NY Fed wrote:The best maturity combination may be three months and ten years. Other choices lead to results that are highly correlated with our own, but whatever combination is selected should be used consistently in both analysis and prediction.
The three-month rate is best represented by the secondary market rate, expressed on a bond-equivalent basis to match the ten-year rate.
I don't know what this means. Can you explain?
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Mo
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Mo »

Basically, the best way to look at the 3 month rate is to see what the yield on bonds maturing in 3 months on the open market are rather than what the rate is for new 3-month bonds.
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

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Warren
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Warren »

Mo wrote:
15 Aug 2019, 10:32
Basically, the best way to look at the 3 month rate is to see what the yield on bonds maturing in 3 months on the open market are rather than what the rate is for new 3-month bonds.
Huh. What accounts for the spread? Is there a difference between buying a 10yr that matures in 3 months over buying a 3 month bond?
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Mo
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Mo »

It’s just one jobs report, but a full 20% of the new jobs in the jobs report are temporary census workers. Also, on the heels of the contraction of the manufacturing report, not looking good.
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

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Pham Nuwen
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Pham Nuwen »

I'm just going to say it. We need a recession! Asset prices are ridiculous! But it needs to wait til the second week of December now. Mo. I know you are part of the secret cabal that controls the world economy. You know what I mean. Just convince everyone in the volcano lair to wait til the second week of December.
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Warren
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Warren »

Pham Nuwen wrote:
06 Sep 2019, 20:07
I'm just going to say it. We need a recession! Asset prices are ridiculous! But it needs to wait til the second week of December now. Mo. I know you are part of the secret cabal that controls the world economy. You know what I mean. Just convince everyone in the volcano lair to wait til the second week of December.
You think Mo is an Elder of Zion?
Best disguise ever!
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dead_elvis
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by dead_elvis »

Perfect ad slogan for DOOOOM:

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cs6zgsqusaaxzok.jpg (126.53 KiB) Viewed 736 times
"Never forget: a war on undocumented immigrants by necessity is a war on all of our freedoms of association and movement."

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Andrew
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Andrew »

dead_elvis wrote:
08 Sep 2019, 13:20
THE FUTURE IS HERE AND EVERYTHING NEEDS TO BE DESTROYED
That should be the tagline for the new Terminator movie. And a bumper sticker on my truck.
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Warren
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Warren »

Andrew wrote:
08 Sep 2019, 15:35
dead_elvis wrote:
08 Sep 2019, 13:20
THE FUTURE IS HERE AND EVERYTHING NEEDS TO BE DESTROYED
That should be the tagline for the new Terminator movie. And a bumper sticker on my truck.
I was thinking it will be the slogan of the populist wave Shem rides into power on.
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Shem
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Shem »

Can't rise from the ashes until everything is burned to the ground.
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by lunchstealer »

Shem wrote:Can't rise from the ashes until everything is burned to the ground.
This will be the bumper sticker on my truck.
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Warren
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Warren »

lunchstealer wrote:
10 Sep 2019, 05:09
Shem wrote:Can't rise from the ashes until everything is burned to the ground.
This will be the bumper sticker on my truck.
With a decal of Calvin dousing the flames on a combusting American Flag.
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lunchstealer
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by lunchstealer »

Warren wrote:
10 Sep 2019, 09:38
lunchstealer wrote:
10 Sep 2019, 05:09
Shem wrote:Can't rise from the ashes until everything is burned to the ground.
This will be the bumper sticker on my truck.
With a decal of Calvin dousing the flames on a combusting American Flag.
"The constitution is more of a BDSM agreement with a safe word." - Sandy

"Neoliberalism. Austerity. Booga booga!!!!" - JasonL

"We can't confirm rumors that Lynndie England is in the running to be Gina Haspel's personal aide." - DAR

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Warren
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Warren »

Federal Deficit Hit $984 Billion Last Year

Remember when congress critters gave lip service to the deficit being a serious problem? I'm not sure I do. I think this use to be a stump speech item, but my memory is becoming unreliable.
But let's keep focused on The Kremlin, The Green New Deal, and those dirty immigrants.
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JasonL
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Post by JasonL »

It's military spending right now. It has run amok and is scheduled to do more of that next year. The overseas contingency "war fund" or "slush fund" is slated to go from like $69 billion to like $165 billion. The budget control act should cap defense spending at like $580 billion but guess what the war fund for GWOT and other international operations is not governed by that cap. Bases won't be closed because local jobs in districts. We are not pulling back if anyone had that hope from Trump.

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Mo
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Post by Mo »

Warren wrote:Federal Deficit Hit $984 Billion Last Year

Remember when congress critters gave lip service to the deficit being a serious problem? I'm not sure I do. I think this use to be a stump speech item, but my memory is becoming unreliable.
But let's keep focused on The Kremlin, The Green New Deal, and those dirty immigrants.
Congress and the media don’t care about the deficit because there’s a Republican in the White House.
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

no one ever yells worldstar when a pet gets fucked up - dhex

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Shem
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Shem »

Mo wrote:
27 Oct 2019, 16:21
Warren wrote:Federal Deficit Hit $984 Billion Last Year

Remember when congress critters gave lip service to the deficit being a serious problem? I'm not sure I do. I think this use to be a stump speech item, but my memory is becoming unreliable.
But let's keep focused on The Kremlin, The Green New Deal, and those dirty immigrants.
Congress and the media don’t care about the deficit because there’s a Republican in the White House.
Well, and because a big driver of the increase is tax cuts for rich people, which are going to pay for themselves any day now, since we're apparently permanently on the right side of the Laffler Curve.
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Painboy
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Post by Painboy »

Well the GOP isn't going to say anything because it happened on their watch and the Dems aren't going to bring it up since that might highlight the fact that there's no money for all those goodies they want to add.

At some point this will matter. Unfortunately by then it will likely be too late.

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JasonL
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Post by JasonL »

I think there is real consensus across both parties that debt and deficits don't matter - bringing it up is loser politics and nobody can imagine a world where the US treasury isn't the sexiest debt instrument among truly fugly competition.

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Painboy
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Post by Painboy »

JasonL wrote:
27 Oct 2019, 19:34
I think there is real consensus across both parties that debt and deficits don't matter - bringing it up is loser politics and nobody can imagine a world where the US treasury isn't the sexiest debt instrument among truly fugly competition.
I wonder sometimes that since we have had a massive debt for so long, like generations, without any apparent visible consequences, that people just don't think it's a real problem anymore.

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Hugh Akston
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Hugh Akston »

Painboy wrote:
28 Oct 2019, 14:24
JasonL wrote:
27 Oct 2019, 19:34
I think there is real consensus across both parties that debt and deficits don't matter - bringing it up is loser politics and nobody can imagine a world where the US treasury isn't the sexiest debt instrument among truly fugly competition.
I wonder sometimes that since we have had a massive debt for so long, like generations, without any apparent visible consequences, that people just don't think it's a real problem anymore.
Same with wars in the Middle East
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