DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

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JasonL
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by JasonL » 21 Dec 2018, 22:17

Big thing about dooom is it’s fine as a discussion until people start taking real life actions as though dooom were actually the case. If you really believe economic collapse is a thing you rationally behave in a way that will wreck you if you are wrong. I say this every recession yes.

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Aresen
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Aresen » 21 Dec 2018, 22:44

JasonL wrote:
21 Dec 2018, 22:17
Big thing about dooom is it’s fine as a discussion until people start taking real life actions as though dooom were actually the case. If you really believe economic collapse is a thing you rationally behave in a way that will wreck you if you are wrong. I say this every recession yes.
I agree, but that doesn't mean you shouldn't have some form of Black Swan insurance.
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Warren » 22 Dec 2018, 10:17

JasonL wrote:
21 Dec 2018, 22:17
Big thing about dooom is it’s fine as a discussion until people start taking real life actions as though dooom were actually the case. If you really believe economic collapse is a thing you rationally behave in a way that will wreck you if you are wrong. I say this every recession yes.
The reverse is worse though.
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JasonL
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by JasonL » 22 Dec 2018, 11:02

That's what stupid people say to us every day. Sell out at the bottom buy gold expensive cry like babies and beg for government handouts because they are stupid and deserve their impoverished state.

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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Warren » 22 Dec 2018, 11:12

JasonL wrote:
22 Dec 2018, 11:02
That's what stupid people say to us every day. Sell out at the bottom buy gold expensive cry like babies and beg for government handouts because they are stupid and deserve their impoverished state.
Oh okay.
When exactly was the market at a bottom when gold was expensive by the way?
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JasonL
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by JasonL » 22 Dec 2018, 11:43

The last recession? Performance of gold vs equities is most often a negative correlation and more strongly so in recessions.

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Mo
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Mo » 22 Dec 2018, 12:00

Gold rose from 2008 -2011
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Warren » 22 Dec 2018, 15:55

Mo wrote:
22 Dec 2018, 12:00
Gold rose from 2008 -2011
From 2001 - 2011 in fact. Which, oh hey, also includes the previous recession.
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Mo » 24 Dec 2018, 04:56

Ok, now I’m worried. Not because of any fundamentals, but because the whole Mnuchin call and statement from Cabo shows that there’s no one in Treasury that knows what the fuck they should in a mild correction, let alone a crisis, and would choose the exact wrong course of action.
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

no one ever yells worldstar when a pet gets fucked up - dhex

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Pham Nuwen
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Pham Nuwen » 24 Dec 2018, 05:27

Mo wrote:
24 Dec 2018, 04:56
Ok, now I’m worried. Not because of any fundamentals, but because the whole Mnuchin call and statement from Cabo shows that there’s no one in Treasury that knows what the fuck they should in a mild correction, let alone a crisis, and would choose the exact wrong course of action.
I just want two stocks to go under $15/share so I can snatch up a few hundred shares. What's the likelihood of the market keeping on it's current course for another 30 to 60 days?
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Warren » 24 Dec 2018, 10:10

Pham Nuwen wrote:
24 Dec 2018, 05:27
Mo wrote:
24 Dec 2018, 04:56
Ok, now I’m worried. Not because of any fundamentals, but because the whole Mnuchin call and statement from Cabo shows that there’s no one in Treasury that knows what the fuck they should in a mild correction, let alone a crisis, and would choose the exact wrong course of action.
I just want two stocks to go under $15/share so I can snatch up a few hundred shares. What's the likelihood of the market keeping on it's current course for another 30 to 60 days?
Previous "government shutdowns" have been short lived. The media goes into salivate/hyperventilate mode and actual people get actually inconvenienced and the pols buckle under the pressure. The Clown King of America might possibly be immune to that, but more likely he's twice as vulnerable to being hung in effigy. I expect a Wall Street rally when the "shutdown" is over. But if you hold out a bit longer, as long as the tariffs remain in place, that's a headwind that will eventually erode all else.

3:2 the S&P is down another 10% or more 100 days into the new year so long as the tariffs aren't lifted. If the tariffs are lifted, we're going to kick that can at highway speeds.
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Mo » 24 Dec 2018, 10:47

The market isn’t down because of the shutdown. It’s because the president wants central bank to be based on his whims. Long term yields don’t give a shit about the Fed if the Fed has no legitimacy, so anything that puts that legitimacy at risk scares them. I would bet money that if it’s close, Powell leans to increase over flat to demonstrate independence.
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

no one ever yells worldstar when a pet gets fucked up - dhex

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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Warren » 24 Dec 2018, 10:58

Mo wrote:
24 Dec 2018, 10:47
The market isn’t down because of the shutdown. It’s because the president wants central bank to be based on his whims. Long term yields don’t give a shit about the Fed if the Fed has no legitimacy, so anything that puts that legitimacy at risk scares them. I would bet money that if it’s close, Powell leans to increase over flat to demonstrate independence.
Don't agree. Rapid down movements are sparked by changing circumstances and uncertainty. Politicians whining about what the FED is doing and whether the FED should do the opposite to show Independence, is a very old story. Not to mention, the market wants what the president wants, what the establishment in all it's forms always wants: Another injection.
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by thoreau » 24 Dec 2018, 11:04

Relax, economic policy is in steady hands.

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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Warren » 24 Dec 2018, 11:06

:lol:
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Mo
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Mo » 24 Dec 2018, 11:46

Warren wrote:
Mo wrote:
24 Dec 2018, 10:47
The market isn’t down because of the shutdown. It’s because the president wants central bank to be based on his whims. Long term yields don’t give a shit about the Fed if the Fed has no legitimacy, so anything that puts that legitimacy at risk scares them. I would bet money that if it’s close, Powell leans to increase over flat to demonstrate independence.
Don't agree. Rapid down movements are sparked by changing circumstances and uncertainty. Politicians whining about what the FED is doing and whether the FED should do the opposite to show Independence, is a very old story. Not to mention, the market wants what the president wants, what the establishment in all it's forms always wants: Another injection.
Actually presidents have laid off criticizing the Fed since HW. And none have threatened to fire the Fed chair
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

no one ever yells worldstar when a pet gets fucked up - dhex

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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Aresen » 24 Dec 2018, 12:36

thoreau wrote:
24 Dec 2018, 11:04
Relax, economic policy is in steady hands.

*Starts seriously looking at SHTF websites*
If Trump supporters wanted a tough guy, why did they elect such a whiny bitch? - Mo

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JasonL
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by JasonL » 24 Dec 2018, 13:24

Trump is behaving dangerously. This mornings conversations were shocking.

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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Jennifer » 24 Dec 2018, 14:14

thoreau wrote:
24 Dec 2018, 11:04
Relax, economic policy is in steady hands.

Ah, yes, if only the Fed had some economic genius at the helm. Maybe we can find someone who went bankrupt running a casino?
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Shem » 24 Dec 2018, 14:51

JasonL wrote:
24 Dec 2018, 13:24
Trump is behaving dangerously. This mornings conversations were shocking.
Really? Really really?
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Pham Nuwen
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Pham Nuwen » 24 Dec 2018, 22:04

Me: Hahahaha. I hope Jetblue and Williams Companies drop below $15 a share at some point.

*glances at dow jones*

Wtf! 650 points? How did that happen?

Summary: Wife and I are apparently the Joe P Kennedy's of the gryll since we sold the 401k back in april and the house in october.
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Jennifer
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Jennifer » 24 Dec 2018, 23:46

Since we're likely to put off buying a house anyway, I'd been thinking of taking some "house money" out of savings and into my first-ever index fund. Good thing I did not do so a few weeks ago when first I thought of it.
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JasonL
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by JasonL » 07 Jan 2019, 10:13

The job numbers, not the current ones which you never react to but the trend for the trump era, are interesting. Increased hiring in domestic durable goods manufacturing seems to be a real thing. Migration out of service sector toward larger firms seems to be a thing.

I can't imagine either of those things being real things if March elapses without a China trade deal that locks in a tariff regime that's pretty stout. Economics is hard.

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