DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

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Mo
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DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Mo » 04 Sep 2015, 22:44

Because I am too lazy to find the old doom thread.

Interesting note on the current unemployment rate. It seems to be largely driven by historically low short term unemployment, >27 week unemployment is at levels that were only seen once since this current recession.
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the innominate one
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by the innominate one » 04 Sep 2015, 22:52

By since do you mean prior to?
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Mo
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Mo » 04 Sep 2015, 22:57

Yes.
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

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Warren
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Warren » 04 Sep 2015, 23:11

With the lowest labor force participation since Carter took office.
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Mo
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Mo » 04 Sep 2015, 23:25

Yes, but most of the decline in workforce is due to demographic and other secular trends (SAHDs, more college, etc.) than a soft job market. It was going down before the recession. If it was the softness of the job market, you would see a pop in workforce participation due to the lower unemployment rate.


This chart only goes through 2013, but it shows that no earner households tracks 65+ households pretty closely.
Image
Last edited by Mo on 04 Sep 2015, 23:26, edited 1 time in total.
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

no one ever yells worldstar when a pet gets fucked up - dhex

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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Randroid 2.0 » 04 Sep 2015, 23:25

Yikes, that's not good. I did privately think that 2008-2018 would be the lost decade, but I was hoping to be wrong.


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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by thoreau » 04 Sep 2015, 23:28

I suppose that the silver lining is that there are plenty of realistic ways for things to improve yet. I look at this graph and I worry that things can't get better and we're about to rebound:
latest_numbers_LNS14000000_1977_2015_all_period_M08_data.gif
latest_numbers_LNS14000000_1977_2015_all_period_M08_data.gif (6.15 KiB) Viewed 2667 times
From BLS:

Code: Select all

Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey

Series Id:           LNS14000000
Seasonally Adjusted
Series title:        (Seas) Unemployment Rate
Labor force status:  Unemployment rate
Type of data:        Percent or rate
Age:                 16 years and over
Last edited by thoreau on 04 Sep 2015, 23:28, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Mo » 04 Sep 2015, 23:28

Randroid 2.0 wrote:Yikes, that's not good. I did privately think that 2008-2018 would be the lost decade, but I was hoping to be wrong.
Tough to tell. The trendline looks good (dropping through the floor, but the sheer magnitude of it means that there's a lot of pig still left in the snake and we'd need a few more years of recovery to get it to a level that would prevent it from getting ugly from even another short recession.
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Warren » 25 Sep 2015, 16:50

Dow +114
Nasdaq -48
WTF?
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Aresen » 25 Sep 2015, 16:57

Warren wrote:Dow +114
Nasdaq -48
WTF?
Without looking closely, I am going to guess that investors are moving to dividend stocks.
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Warren » 25 Sep 2015, 17:01

Aresen wrote:
Warren wrote:Dow +114
Nasdaq -48
WTF?
Without looking closely, I am going to guess that investors are moving to dividend stocks.
That wouldn't create that kind of disparity. I'm reading that it was a biotech selloff. But can't find an explanation for what triggered it.
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Kolohe » 25 Sep 2015, 17:03

Dude bro jacking up his prices and Hillary saying she'll go after that sort of thing when she's sitting on the Iron Throne.
when you wake up as the queen of the n=1 kingdom and mount your steed non sequiturius, do you look out upon all you survey and think “damn, it feels good to be a green idea sleeping furiously?" - dhex

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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Aresen » 25 Sep 2015, 17:07

Kolohe wrote:Dude bro jacking up his prices and Hillary saying she'll go after that sort of thing when she's sitting on the Iron Throne.
One bit of schadenfreude I am truly hoping for is that Clinton does not get elected, either due to losing the nomination or losing on 11/8/16.

It is unlikely, but the salty ham tears would be sooo delicious.
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Warren » 25 Sep 2015, 17:09

Aresen wrote:
Kolohe wrote:Dude bro jacking up his prices and Hillary saying she'll go after that sort of thing when she's sitting on the Iron Throne.
One bit of schadenfreude I am truly hoping for is that Clinton does not get elected, either due to losing the nomination or losing on 11/8/16.

It is unlikely, but the salty ham tears would be sooo delicious.
I think you're on it Kolohe

I don't mind Clinton losing, it's someone else winning that scares me.
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Aresen » 25 Sep 2015, 17:14

Warren wrote:I don't mind Clinton losing, it's someone else winning that scares me.
Team Warren. It is like Mudd's choice, isn't it?
If Trump supporters wanted a tough guy, why did they elect such a whiny bitch? - Mo

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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Sandy » 26 Sep 2015, 06:52

Aresen wrote:
Warren wrote:I don't mind Clinton losing, it's someone else winning that scares me.
Team Warren. It is like Mudd's choice, isn't it?
Harcourt Fenton Mudd's choice.

That being said, I'm insufficiently scared to vote major party. I learned that lesson.
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Warren » 26 Sep 2015, 10:49

I'd want to know a little more about his position on the imex bank, but I think I could get behind a HFM candidacy.

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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Sandy » 26 Sep 2015, 16:44

Warren wrote:I'd want to know a little more about his position on the imex bank, but I think I could get behind a HFM candidacy.

MUDD 2016
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by lunchstealer » 26 Sep 2015, 16:47

I'd vote for a Mudd/Jones ticket.
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Aresen » 26 Nov 2015, 12:09

Yet another sign of the impending apocalypse:

The Oxford Dictionary Word of the Year
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by dbcooper » 12 Jan 2016, 05:37

Heed the fears of the financial markets

They understood the gravity of the 2008 crisis well before the Federal Reserve

Lawrence Summers

Often markets are volatile at the end of a year and then settle down as a new year begins. Not this year. US and European markets closed lower on Friday after a very rough week despite a strong US jobs report. The week saw dramatic declines in China’s stock market and currency. Oil prices fell even in the face of major tension between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

A week when bad market news makes the front page raises two questions. How much should forecasters and policymakers look to speculative markets as indicators of future prospects? And how alarmed should they be about the prospect of a global slowdown?

Markets are more volatile than the fundamentals they seek to assess. Economist Paul Samuelson quipped 50 years ago, “the stock market has predicted nine of the last five recessions”.

Former Treasury secretary Robert Rubin was right when he would regularly reassure anxious politicos in the Clinton White House that “markets go up, markets go down” on days when a market move created either joy or anxiety. The best executives manage their companies with an eye to long-run profitability, not the daily stock price. And policymakers do best when they concentrate on strengthening economic fundamentals rather than on daily market fluctuations.

Still, since markets are constantly assessing the future and aggregate the views of a huge number of participants, they often give valuable warning when conditions change. Studies have shown that prediction markets do a better job of predicting elections than pollsters. Hollywood studios use such markets to judge the likely success of movies.

Policymakers who dismiss market moves as reflecting mere speculation often make a serious mistake. Markets understood the gravity of the 2008 crisis well before the Federal Reserve. They grasped the unsustainability of fixed exchange rates in the UK, Mexico and Brazil while the authorities were still in denial, and saw slowdown or recession well before forecasters in countless downturns. While markets do sometimes send false alarms and should not be slavishly followed, the conventional wisdom essentially never recognises gathering storms.

The Economist reports that, looking across all major countries over the past several decades, there were 220 instances in which a year of positive growth was followed by one of contraction. Not once did International Monetary Fund forecasts anticipate the recession in the April of the growth year.

Signals should be taken seriously when they are long lasting and coming from many markets, as with current market indications that inflation will not reach target levels within a decade in the US, Europe or Japan. It is especially ominous when markets fail to rally on what should be good news.

It is conceivable that Chinese developments reflect market psychology and clumsy policy responses, and that the response of world markets is an example of transient contagion. But I doubt it.

Over the past year, about 20 per cent of China’s growth as reported in its official statistics has come from its financial services sector, which is now about as large relative to gross domestic product as in Britain, and Chinese debt levels are extraordinarily high. This is hardly a case of healthy or sustainable growth.

In recent years, China’s growth has come heavily from massive infrastructure investment; China poured more cement and concrete between 2011 and 2013 than the US did in the whole of the 20th century. This, too, is unsustainable. Even if it is replaced by domestic services, China’s contribution to demand for global commodities will fall.


Experience suggests that the best indicator of a country’s future economic prospects is the decisions its citizens make about keeping capital at home or exporting it abroad. The renminbi is under pressure because Chinese citizens are eager to move their money overseas. Were it not for the substantial recent depletion of China’s reserves, the renminbi would have fallen further.

Traditionally, international developments have had only a limited effect on the US and European economies because they could be offset by monetary policy actions. Thus, the US economy grew robustly through the Asian financial crisis as the Fed brought down interest rates. With rates essentially at zero in the industrial countries, however, this option is no longer available, and foreign economic problems are likely to have much more of a direct effect on economic performance.

Because of China’s scale, its potential volatility and the limited room for conventional monetary manoeuvres, the global risk to domestic economic performance in the US, Europe and many emerging markets is as great as at any time I can remember. Policymakers should hope for the best and plan for the worst.

The writer is Charles W Eliot university professor at Harvard and a former US Treasury secretary
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by JasonL » 12 Jan 2016, 08:26

Chinese GDP is made of lies, everyone knows it, and the argument has always hinged on something like "they'll grow into it because look how many people". Looking less credible as a story. Domestic demand ain't great. It is the story of the next 5 years at least in global markets.

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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Kolohe » 12 Jan 2016, 09:09

JasonL wrote:Chinese GDP is made of lies, everyone knows it, and the argument has always hinged on something like "they'll grow into it because look how many people". Looking less credible as a story. Domestic demand ain't great. It is the story of the next 5 years at least in global markets.
Though I think it's more like 1998 than 2008. Granted, like Larry said the fed had more room in which to work back in 98, but the total cut was only about 1 percentage point. And that rate decrease in no small way helped add bouncy bouncy to the tech bubble.
when you wake up as the queen of the n=1 kingdom and mount your steed non sequiturius, do you look out upon all you survey and think “damn, it feels good to be a green idea sleeping furiously?" - dhex

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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Warren » 12 Jan 2016, 10:37

The US (and every other nation's) economy has been keeping afloat on debt. Without China we've been forced to buy our own debt. I don't know how long we can keep paying MasterCard with VISA, but I know it's not forever. When the crash comes, I don't see how it can be anything but catastrophic on a global scale. Cities in flames, streets running red with blood, that sort of thing. Sooner or later the bill has got to be paid and I just don't see any way it can be.
Gentrification is undocumented immigration for the left-leaning. - Shem

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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Mo » 12 Jan 2016, 10:52

Two thirds of federal debt is owned by the domestic sources. China holds less than 8% of total US debt and hasn't been a big buyer in recent months (I think they've been a net seller).
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

no one ever yells worldstar when a pet gets fucked up - dhex

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