DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

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Kolohe
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Kolohe »

Arguably, though, stagflation had significantly different inputs than what we have now, and what we have now is possibly even closer to the 1929-1930 situation than 2007-2008 was.
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D.A. Ridgely
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by D.A. Ridgely »

JasonL wrote:
23 Mar 2020, 17:07
Stagflation broke progressivism as a political force in America for 30+ years.
It's making a comeback. Maybe not this year, but soon.

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Andrew
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Andrew »

D.A. Ridgely wrote:
23 Mar 2020, 17:18
JasonL wrote:
23 Mar 2020, 17:07
Stagflation broke progressivism as a political force in America for 30+ years.
It's making a comeback. Maybe not this year, but soon.
Typical of the boomers, trying to bring back something from the 70s.
We live in the fucked age. Get used to it. - dhex

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D.A. Ridgely
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by D.A. Ridgely »

Andrew wrote:
23 Mar 2020, 20:14
D.A. Ridgely wrote:
23 Mar 2020, 17:18
JasonL wrote:
23 Mar 2020, 17:07
Stagflation broke progressivism as a political force in America for 30+ years.
It's making a comeback. Maybe not this year, but soon.
Typical of the boomers, trying to bring back something from the 70s.
We tried ending the war and broadening civil rights in the 60s and you see how far that went.

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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Warren »

The market continued to fall but commodities bounced.
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Pham Nuwen
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Pham Nuwen »

Wait. Did the boomers do the civil rights stuff or their parents? I thought it was their parents mostly.
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Pham Nuwen »

I don't get the market rally. 3 million people just went on unemployment. Manufacturing is in recession. Farming is in recession. Hospitality industry is in recession.

Am I not understanding something? Am I missing something?
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Kolohe
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Kolohe »

It’s really high volatility right now, with still a bit of uncertainty, so I wouldn’t read too much into any particular day (esp on the upside)

The unemployment claim stats, while ginormous & unprecedented, were nonetheless expected (as of probably a week ago)
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Warren »

Pham Nuwen wrote:
26 Mar 2020, 22:11
I don't get the market rally. 3 million people just went on unemployment. Manufacturing is in recession. Farming is in recession. Hospitality industry is in recession.

Am I not understanding something? Am I missing something?
The government has made a commitment to write enough checks to make everybody feel better.
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Kolohe
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Kolohe »

https://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/debt/ ... dYear=2020

March 16, 2020 debt held by the public $17.495 trillion

April 16, 2020 debt held by the public $18.524 trillion

I gotta think this is the first time of a trillion dollars in addition public debt instruments in a single month. (And in tax receipt month, no less)

ETA to be clear, this is what needs to be done right now. But the numbers still are something.
when you wake up as the queen of the n=1 kingdom and mount your steed non sequiturius, do you look out upon all you survey and think “damn, it feels good to be a green idea sleeping furiously?" - dhex

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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Warren »

Kolohe wrote:
19 Apr 2020, 13:42
And in tax receipt month, no less
Is it though? Most individuals get a refund. And if you're not having it taken out of your pay week by week, you need to file quarterly.
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Kolohe
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Post by Kolohe »

Most individuals get a refund, but I think there's overall still a net inflow to the IRS, because all those small refunds are counterbalanced by more sizeable though less numerous tax owers. IIRC the period should still be the most positive cashflow month between that and the usual end of 1st qtr quarter remittances duenon March 31.
when you wake up as the queen of the n=1 kingdom and mount your steed non sequiturius, do you look out upon all you survey and think “damn, it feels good to be a green idea sleeping furiously?" - dhex

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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Warren »

Kolohe wrote:
19 Apr 2020, 15:17
Most individuals get a refund, but I think there's overall still a net inflow to the IRS, because all those small refunds are counterbalanced by more sizeable though less numerous tax owers. IIRC the period should still be the most positive cashflow month between that and the usual end of 1st qtr quarter remittances duenon March 31.
Yeah I don't know. If you are a sizable tax ower, you need to file every quarter. So end of each quarter should produce more positive cash flow.
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Warren »

JasonL wrote:
15 May 2020, 13:26

My global version of this is "Nothing is Nazis and Nothing is the Depression, shut up".
We're not Great Depression yet, and what's coming will look very different, but I think it likely that what's coming is going to be worse.
Our monetary policy has been very bad since the New Deal. It's been dangerous since 9/11. Bailouts and stimulus following the financial crisis were dumping on more gasoline. And now the Pandemic, economic destruction and unlimited printing press. Who really thinks we can sustain debt/GDP over 200%?
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Post by Pham Nuwen »

Warren wrote:
15 May 2020, 14:05
JasonL wrote:
15 May 2020, 13:26

My global version of this is "Nothing is Nazis and Nothing is the Depression, shut up".
We're not Great Depression yet, and what's coming will look very different, but I think it likely that what's coming is going to be worse.
Our monetary policy has been very bad since the New Deal. It's been dangerous since 9/11. Bailouts and stimulus following the financial crisis were dumping on more gasoline. And now the Pandemic, economic destruction and unlimited printing press. Who really thinks we can sustain debt/GDP over 200%?
*raises hand*

Look up the history behind the phrase "penny auction" and you'll understand why I raised my hand.
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Warren »

Pham Nuwen wrote:
15 May 2020, 18:26
Warren wrote:
15 May 2020, 14:05
JasonL wrote:
15 May 2020, 13:26

My global version of this is "Nothing is Nazis and Nothing is the Depression, shut up".
We're not Great Depression yet, and what's coming will look very different, but I think it likely that what's coming is going to be worse.
Our monetary policy has been very bad since the New Deal. It's been dangerous since 9/11. Bailouts and stimulus following the financial crisis were dumping on more gasoline. And now the Pandemic, economic destruction and unlimited printing press. Who really thinks we can sustain debt/GDP over 200%?
*raises hand*

Look up the history behind the phrase "penny auction" and you'll understand why I raised my hand.
Yeah we got a whole different problem here. Durring the Great Depression, the USD actually deflated. I'm worried about hyper inflation. Who's going buy our bonds when they expect the dollars they cash them in for will be worth only pennies of the dollars they purchase them with? It ainna gonna be a bunch of clod-busting hicks in overalls I'll tell you that.
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Aresen »

Warren wrote:
15 May 2020, 19:22
Pham Nuwen wrote:
15 May 2020, 18:26
Warren wrote:
15 May 2020, 14:05
JasonL wrote:
15 May 2020, 13:26

My global version of this is "Nothing is Nazis and Nothing is the Depression, shut up".
We're not Great Depression yet, and what's coming will look very different, but I think it likely that what's coming is going to be worse.
Our monetary policy has been very bad since the New Deal. It's been dangerous since 9/11. Bailouts and stimulus following the financial crisis were dumping on more gasoline. And now the Pandemic, economic destruction and unlimited printing press. Who really thinks we can sustain debt/GDP over 200%?
*raises hand*

Look up the history behind the phrase "penny auction" and you'll understand why I raised my hand.
Yeah we got a whole different problem here. Durring the Great Depression, the USD actually deflated. I'm worried about hyper inflation. Who's going buy our bonds when they expect the dollars they cash them in for will be worth only pennies of the dollars they purchase them with? It ainna gonna be a bunch of clod-busting hicks in overalls I'll tell you that.
Don't worry, Warren, they'll just shoot all the nasty gold-hoarders.
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Post by Pham Nuwen »

Warren,

We'll take the entire planet with us. It ain't gonna happen.
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Post by Hugh Akston »

The opposite of DOOM, framed as a good economy spelling electoral disaster for Team Blue
Furman’s case begins with the premise that the 2020 pandemic-triggered economic collapse is categorically different than the Great Depression or the Great Recession, which both had slow, grinding recoveries.

Instead, he believes, the way to think about the current economic drop-off, at least in the first two phases, is more like what happens to a thriving economy during and after a natural disaster: a quick and steep decline in economic activity followed by a quick and steep rebound.

The Covid-19 recession started with a sudden shuttering of many businesses, a nationwide decline in consumption and massive increase in unemployment. But starting around April 15, when economic reopening started to spread but the overall numbers still looked grim, Furman noticed some data that pointed to the kind of recovery that economists often see after a hurricane or industrywide catastrophe like the Gulf of Mexico oil spill.

Consumption and hiring started to tick up “in gross terms, not in net terms,” Furman said, describing the phenomenon as a “partial rebound.” The bounce back “can be very very fast, because people go back to their original job, they get called back from furlough, you put the lights back on in your business. Given how many people were furloughed and how many businesses were closed you can get a big jump out of that. It will look like a V.”
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Warren »

Hugh Akston wrote:
26 May 2020, 22:22
The opposite of DOOM, framed as a good economy spelling electoral disaster for Team Blue
He's completely discounting Money Printer Go Brrrrrr which is the cause of slow grinding recoveries, if there even is a recovery.
DOOOOM
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Shem »

Hugh Akston wrote:
26 May 2020, 22:22
The opposite of DOOM, framed as a good economy spelling electoral disaster for Team Blue
Furman’s case begins with the premise that the 2020 pandemic-triggered economic collapse is categorically different than the Great Depression or the Great Recession, which both had slow, grinding recoveries.

Instead, he believes, the way to think about the current economic drop-off, at least in the first two phases, is more like what happens to a thriving economy during and after a natural disaster: a quick and steep decline in economic activity followed by a quick and steep rebound.

The Covid-19 recession started with a sudden shuttering of many businesses, a nationwide decline in consumption and massive increase in unemployment. But starting around April 15, when economic reopening started to spread but the overall numbers still looked grim, Furman noticed some data that pointed to the kind of recovery that economists often see after a hurricane or industrywide catastrophe like the Gulf of Mexico oil spill.

Consumption and hiring started to tick up “in gross terms, not in net terms,” Furman said, describing the phenomenon as a “partial rebound.” The bounce back “can be very very fast, because people go back to their original job, they get called back from furlough, you put the lights back on in your business. Given how many people were furloughed and how many businesses were closed you can get a big jump out of that. It will look like a V.”
It's really going to depend on how many small businesses manage to make it through. Joe's Hardware isn't like Home Depot; they can't rely on corporate to help float them, and if they go out, they're not coming back, and their employees aren't getting their jobs back as a result.
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Kolohe
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Kolohe »

I think Furman is full of malarkey, because pointing to abstract stats is not going to overcome people’s lived experience with unemployment.

Or rather, since it doesn’t take that many voters from 2016 to change their mind to get Biden the win in 2020, those that are now unemployed ( or now dead) can easily be the decisive factor regardless of what the economy looks like on paper.

(& until the schools come back, it’s not going to look good on paper anyway)
when you wake up as the queen of the n=1 kingdom and mount your steed non sequiturius, do you look out upon all you survey and think “damn, it feels good to be a green idea sleeping furiously?" - dhex

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Shem
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Shem »

There's no possible way this is going to wind up becoming a disaster. Well, not again, anyway.

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