DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

[Hugh Akston]

The world was a better place (sartorially) when everyone I wanted to know was wearing a suit or a dress and everyone else had their first name embroidered on their shirt pockets.

They'd need the monogram wouldn't they? With everyone dressed the same there would be no other way to tell them apart.

[Kolohe]

Could someone maybe hip me to the problem with current standards of dress? Was there a time when they were better?

Yes

I agree with JasonL, and I offer proof, in the form of a particolor puff-and-slash codpiece:

Q.E.D.

This man has an obvious drinking problem though.

(Yet probably easily fixed if he were just to pay attention to the task at hand)

[Pham Nuwen]

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/u-s-already ... -1.1273419

I'm not sure how serious I should take this.

[Warren]

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/u-s-already ... -1.1273419

I'm not sure how serious I should take this.

Unemployment under 4%, S&P at or near all time high, not like any recession I can recall.

[Pham Nuwen]

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/u-s-already ... -1.1273419

I'm not sure how serious I should take this.

Unemployment under 4%, S&P at or near all time high, not like any recession I can recall.

That's why I was confused. I thought it was two straight quarters at least of negative growth. Is he just not using the normal definition?

[Kolohe]

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/u-s-already ... -1.1273419

I'm not sure how serious I should take this.

Unemployment under 4%, S&P at or near all time high, not like any recession I can recall.

That's why I was confused. I thought it was two straight quarters at least of negative growth. Is he just not using the normal definition?

I looked it up after your post (because I thought the same thing), and in fact the NBER says

The NBER does not define a recession in terms of two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP. Rather, a recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.

which is what home boy says in his Bloomberg post. But still, I could see the case for calling 'top of the business cycle' but I can't see already calling recession with the leading economic indicators we have now. (specifically, while the last jobs report 'missed' it was still net jobs created.

[Kolohe]

I mean, eventually if you say 'Now We Are in a Recession' you're going to be right.

[Pham Nuwen]

I mean, eventually if you say 'Now We Are in a Recession' you're going to be right.

You're so right. I predicted the last 2 recessions at least 20 times. Feels good.

[Aresen]

I mean, eventually if you say 'Now We Are in a Recession' you're going to be right.

You're so right. I predicted the last 2 recessions at least 20 times. Feels good.

I'm still waiting for the recession I predicted in 2012.

[Kolohe]

Jfc, I'm out of the country for two days and everything goes to crap.

[Pham Nuwen]

To busy dining with the Saudis and Russians? That's on you.

[Kolohe]

Actually, I'm in Canada.

But Aresen is in America.

So I think I figured out why everything's getting flipped upside down.

[Pham Nuwen]

That's smart. Neutral ground.

[Aresen]

Actually, I'm in Canada.

But Aresen is in America.

Actually, at the exact moment you posted that, I was back in Canada waiting to see if Canada Customs would believe my lies accept my customs declaration.

[Warren]

Dow plunges 650 points after bond market flashes a recession warning

[Mo]

Dow plunges 650 points after bond market flashes a recession warning

The yield curve has been inverted since the end of q1.

[Warren]

Dow plunges 650 points after bond market flashes a recession warning

The yield curve has been inverted since the end of q1.

They're looking at 10s minus 2s

[Mo]

What’s crazy is the 2 year usually inverts before the 3 month. The other way around has never happened before.

[Warren]

What’s crazy is the 2 year usually inverts before the 3 month. The other way around has never happened before.

I did not know that.

I think we uninverted intraday. So it's not the strong "recession next year" signal everyone thought. Even so, the inversion is a symptom not the cause, and all the stuff that flattened the curve to begin with is still there.

[Jennifer]

Given that Trump has (at least temporarily) backed down from his Chinese-tariff threat, has there been any sign that China will reverse its new ban on buying US agricultural products? If Chinese buyers remain off-limits to American food sellers, I suspect it'll take longer than my likely remaining lifespan for the US economy to recover from THAT setback.

[Pham Nuwen]

"You're an inverted fucking bond yield!" sounds like an amazing insult. Need Mo and JasonL to confirm though.

[Eric the .5b]

Is it time to crack each others' heads open and feast on the goo inside?

[Warren]

Soon

[thoreau]

Meanwhile, WeWork is going public, and arguing that even though they lose money they should get a better valuation than their biggest rival (which actually makes a profit).

https://www.vox.com/recode/2019/8/14/20 ... -valuation

Apparently their argument is that they are a tech company. They call their number crunchers "data scientists" instead of "statisticians", so they should be valued like a tech company powered by ego and unicorn farts.

[JasonL]

"You're an inverted fucking bond yield!" sounds like an amazing insult. Need Mo and JasonL to confirm though.

Uh. No, not really. Seems like it would work in a yo mamma format, but it isn’t very dank these days. See historical yield and time horizon relationships (longer bonds pay more than shorter bonds, which gets flipped in an inverted yield curve) are distorted by the large global demand for US treasuries- so instead of oh no recession worries pushing down the rates for long bonds, it’s just supply and demand - US debt doesn’t have to pay much to attract investors.

So yo momma is curved like inverted yield may suggest she’s in demand or may suggest she’s not long term desirable depending on who you ask.