Putin on the Writs

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thoreau
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Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by thoreau » 20 Jun 2019, 10:12

Taktix wrote:39 States
We only have 50.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... LaP8AfpMHU

But don't mind me I'm a CrAzY pErSoN!
But it's just troll farms.

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Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by JasonL » 20 Jun 2019, 13:12

Taktix wrote:39 States
We only have 50.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... LaP8AfpMHU

But don't mind me I'm a CrAzY pErSoN!
1) How many times is the phrase “tried and failed” in that story.

2) don’t shift goalposts on your crazy. You are crazy because you say things like Trump wanted sanctions to help Russia because he’s a lapdog - Putin sets policy and Trump executes it, etc. I’m unaware of anyone saying “Russia isn’t trying to influence the election through a set of electronic means”. Literally everyone thinks that.

The dispute is how effective it has been/can be and the role the administration played.

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Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by thoreau » 20 Jun 2019, 13:20

There's also the question of whether Republicans in government are interested in doing anything about it.

If I see someone repeatedly try and fail to commit a crime that would hurt my competitor, does that mean it's OK for me to push the police to leave the would-be criminal alone and let him keep trying?
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Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by Warren » 20 Jun 2019, 13:25

thoreau wrote:
20 Jun 2019, 13:20
There's also the question of whether Republicans in government are interested in doing anything about it.

If I see someone repeatedly try and fail to commit a crime that would hurt my competitor, does that mean it's OK for me to push the police to leave the would-be criminal alone and let him keep trying?
Of course not. But neither is it advisable to put history on hold while to dismantle the government in order to get at a failed crook.
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Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by Taktix® » 20 Jun 2019, 13:58

JasonL wrote:
20 Jun 2019, 13:12
Taktix wrote:39 States
We only have 50.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... LaP8AfpMHU

But don't mind me I'm a CrAzY pErSoN!
1) How many times is the phrase “tried and failed” in that story.

2) don’t shift goalposts on your crazy. You are crazy because you say things like Trump wanted sanctions to help Russia because he’s a lapdog - Putin sets policy and Trump executes it, etc. I’m unaware of anyone saying “Russia isn’t trying to influence the election through a set of electronic means”. Literally everyone thinks that.

The dispute is how effective it has been/can be and the role the administration played.
1) Again, it's a numbers game. Just because a lot of attempts failed doesn't mean:

a. that failure rate will stay the same in 2020 (especially given how little has been done to prepare thanks to exceptionally viscous GOP) and

b. it doesn't mean the successes like the Podesta hack, maybe now Durham County, NC, the 2 counties in Florida, etc., didn't happen.***

2) Fair enough. Though I think you're assuming some sort of rigid chain of command that I did not mean to imply. Let me try to rephrase a bit: I think Putin has Trump's ear when it comes to topics of governance that Trump doesn't care about, which is basically everything that's not Trump getting more money or Trump staying out of jail. I don't think Putin has Trump's ear exclusively. Trump seems to take advice from MBS and Erdoğan and Kim Jong-un too (and Steven Miller and the underTrumps and Jared, etc.) (ETA: The previous statement is all well documented in real, reliable media and verifiable by 2 minutes google searching and I don't mean superactualrealnewsnow. us)

All I'm really trying to contend is that I think Putin has a larger that average share of Trump's ear, and that Putin is suggesting things that further Russsia's interests, and that those interests often come at the expense of the US because of a variety of reasons, not the least of which was the geopolitical realignment after WWII. That's not always the case, sometimes Russian interests align with US interests (withdrawal from Syria springs to mind, though Trump still managed to slap his brand of horrible on it in the execution).

But in a lot of cases, the Russian Federation's interests run counter to the US. Take the thing you call me most crazy about (despite my never having engaged in name calling bloody ostriches =/= crazy person): US farms. The Russian agricultural sector is booming: https://www.economist.com/business/2018 ... powerhouse Is it crazy to think Putin wouldn't use his leverage with Trump to try to grab greater market share, never mind what that means to US farmers? I don't mean in some Bond villiany, destroy the entire farming economy way, just moving the needle a little too much and in an unlawful method. Trump doesn't give a shit, he can just bail them out by dictate declaration these days (and by doing so admitting it's his policies that are harming them).




***ETA: I left this out because I didn't want excessive speculation to take away from my point, but there haven't been very many serious investigations into the full extent of what happened at a state level and we really don't know how many hits and misses there really are (and probably won't unless leaked for fear of a panic). Before you renew calling me crazy, I know full well that doesn't prove anything beyond a reasonable doubt, but you gotta admit there's too much smoke for there to be no fire...
Last edited by Taktix® on 20 Jun 2019, 14:40, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by Aresen » 20 Jun 2019, 14:10

Taktix® wrote:
20 Jun 2019, 13:58
...exceptionally viscous GOP
Whether that's a typo or not, it works either way.
:lol:
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Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by Taktix® » 20 Jun 2019, 14:15

Aresen wrote:
20 Jun 2019, 14:10
Taktix® wrote:
20 Jun 2019, 13:58
...exceptionally viscous GOP
Whether that's a typo or not, it works either way.
:lol:
Jesus, I can't even get credit for a little dash of imagery :(

And their's no viciousness in the GOP. Each and every one of them barring Amash is a fucking coward for not standing up for America.
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Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by Aresen » 20 Jun 2019, 14:26

Taktix® wrote:
20 Jun 2019, 14:15
Aresen wrote:
20 Jun 2019, 14:10
Taktix® wrote:
20 Jun 2019, 13:58
...exceptionally viscous GOP
Whether that's a typo or not, it works either way.
:lol:
Jesus, I can't even get credit for a little dash of imagery :(

And their's no viciousness in the GOP. Each and every one of them barring Amash is a fucking coward for not standing up for America.
I thought it was funny. I just wasn't sure you intended the play or not. I consider them both viscous (thick) and vicious (wicked).
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Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by Pham Nuwen » 20 Jun 2019, 16:39

I mean with a ton of American agricultural production being blocked from sale through their own stupidity it would make sense another producer like Russia would benefit. *shrug*
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Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by Jennifer » 20 Jun 2019, 17:03

Jason, what is your "non-crazy" explanation for why the Republicans are being so very cavalier about the possibility of foreign interference in our elections? Do you think the GOP would be equally chill about it if we had a President Hillary, and the possible Russian interference only ever seemed to help Democrats?
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Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by thoreau » 20 Jun 2019, 17:14

To be fair, I think his position is that in the opposite scenario the Blues would be cavalier about Russian meddling and the Reds would be demanding action.

I think such a position is 75% right: The Reds would demand action, some Blues would be cavalier, but a whole lot of other Blues would be desperate to prove their pro-'Murica credentials by denouncing Russian meddling. But Reds have no similar desperation because they're seen as pro-'Murica no matter what. Reds are (for the most part accurately) seen as jingoistic patriots, so if foreigners help Reds it's fine. But Blues aren't perceived as having the same patriotic bona fides, so foreign assistance for them would arouse suspicions in some swing voters.
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Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by Jennifer » 20 Jun 2019, 17:29

I'd still like to know the "non-crazy" explanation for why the Republicans are being so very cavalier about the possibility of foreign interference in our elections.
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Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by thoreau » 20 Jun 2019, 17:45

The least crazy reason would be that they don't give a shit about anything other than winning, even if it means accepting favors from people whom a wiser person would not accept favors from.

The crazier explanations involve speculations about Alexander Torshin donating money to the NRA, which is a known powerhouse in GOP politics.
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Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by JasonL » 20 Jun 2019, 17:46

I'm not even sure we are being cavalier, we have a program to install malware into Russian energy grids, and that's just one thing that has been intentionally leaked. I think that there is a complex set of situations going on wherein you may not want to directly pound the table and escalate. It's cold war logic, don't call it what it is because you have to be careful - retaliate through back channels. Trump is petty and stupid and unsophisticated, but there are institutional forces that prevent his every random utterance from mattering all that much.

Yes, I think russia and the US are on the verge of something pretty significant electronic conflict wise. No, I don't think the optics of the situation either look all that much like a lapdog unless you already determined that's the answer to every behavior, nor do I think the above the line visible reaction is the only reaction taking place.

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Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by JasonL » 20 Jun 2019, 17:48

In order - i'd say highest probability my suggestion that there are more layers to this is highest, not because of trumps genius but because he isnt' the only player on the board, then thoreau's first thing, then a million miles of dirt, the center of the earth, out the other side and the NRA thing mattering here.

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Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by Jennifer » 20 Jun 2019, 17:51

JasonL wrote:
20 Jun 2019, 17:46
I'm not even sure we are being cavalier, we have a program to install malware into Russian energy grids, and that's just one thing that has been intentionally leaked. I think that there is a complex set of situations going on wherein you may not want to directly pound the table and escalate. It's cold war logic, don't call it what it is because you have to be careful - retaliate through back channels. Trump is petty and stupid and unsophisticated, but there are institutional forces that prevent his every random utterance from mattering all that much.

Yes, I think russia and the US are on the verge of something pretty significant electronic conflict wise. No, I don't think the optics of the situation either look all that much like a lapdog unless you already determined that's the answer to every behavior, nor do I think the above the line visible reaction is the only reaction taking place.
I didn't say "we" are being cavalier about it; I said the GOP is. Like, in my own current home state of Georgia, GOP Secretary of state (now governor) Brian Kemp refused DHS funding to help guard against interference in the 2016 election. Why do you suppose a man who in other contexts is so hardcore "law and order" shrugged off a Homeland Security threat (and funds to cover it) in this instance?
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Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by thoreau » 20 Jun 2019, 17:55

JasonL wrote:
20 Jun 2019, 17:46
I'm not even sure we are being cavalier, we have a program to install malware into Russian energy grids, and that's just one thing that has been intentionally leaked. I think that there is a complex set of situations going on wherein you may not want to directly pound the table and escalate. It's cold war logic, don't call it what it is because you have to be careful - retaliate through back channels. Trump is petty and stupid and unsophisticated, but there are institutional forces that prevent his every random utterance from mattering all that much.

Yes, I think russia and the US are on the verge of something pretty significant electronic conflict wise. No, I don't think the optics of the situation either look all that much like a lapdog unless you already determined that's the answer to every behavior, nor do I think the above the line visible reaction is the only reaction taking place.
Institutional (i.e. people who stick around no matter how the election goes) figures at the federal level are definitely working on retaliation.

Some less institutional/more partisan figures (i.e. people who live and die by elections) at the state level seem far more cavalier about election security, i.e. prevention.
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Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by Highway » 20 Jun 2019, 18:22

Jennifer wrote:
20 Jun 2019, 17:51
JasonL wrote:
20 Jun 2019, 17:46
I'm not even sure we are being cavalier, we have a program to install malware into Russian energy grids, and that's just one thing that has been intentionally leaked. I think that there is a complex set of situations going on wherein you may not want to directly pound the table and escalate. It's cold war logic, don't call it what it is because you have to be careful - retaliate through back channels. Trump is petty and stupid and unsophisticated, but there are institutional forces that prevent his every random utterance from mattering all that much.

Yes, I think russia and the US are on the verge of something pretty significant electronic conflict wise. No, I don't think the optics of the situation either look all that much like a lapdog unless you already determined that's the answer to every behavior, nor do I think the above the line visible reaction is the only reaction taking place.
I didn't say "we" are being cavalier about it; I said the GOP is. Like, in my own current home state of Georgia, GOP Secretary of state (now governor) Brian Kemp refused DHS funding to help guard against interference in the 2016 election. Why do you suppose a man who in other contexts is so hardcore "law and order" shrugged off a Homeland Security threat (and funds to cover it) in this instance?
Because he thought it would help him win. It was pretty obvious he'd do anything to win.
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Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by Jennifer » 20 Jun 2019, 18:27

Highway wrote:
20 Jun 2019, 18:22
Jennifer wrote:
20 Jun 2019, 17:51
JasonL wrote:
20 Jun 2019, 17:46
I'm not even sure we are being cavalier, we have a program to install malware into Russian energy grids, and that's just one thing that has been intentionally leaked. I think that there is a complex set of situations going on wherein you may not want to directly pound the table and escalate. It's cold war logic, don't call it what it is because you have to be careful - retaliate through back channels. Trump is petty and stupid and unsophisticated, but there are institutional forces that prevent his every random utterance from mattering all that much.

Yes, I think russia and the US are on the verge of something pretty significant electronic conflict wise. No, I don't think the optics of the situation either look all that much like a lapdog unless you already determined that's the answer to every behavior, nor do I think the above the line visible reaction is the only reaction taking place.
I didn't say "we" are being cavalier about it; I said the GOP is. Like, in my own current home state of Georgia, GOP Secretary of state (now governor) Brian Kemp refused DHS funding to help guard against interference in the 2016 election. Why do you suppose a man who in other contexts is so hardcore "law and order" shrugged off a Homeland Security threat (and funds to cover it) in this instance?
Because he thought it would help him win. It was pretty obvious he'd do anything to win.
Duh. But I'd like to know what Jason thinks about the matter --- in the specific context of him insisting it's somehow crazy to think the GOP (or certain elected officials therein) might be getting a tad cozy with the Russians for reasons that are not in the best interests of the USA?
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Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by Warren » 20 Jun 2019, 19:17

Taktix® wrote:
20 Jun 2019, 14:15
Aresen wrote:
20 Jun 2019, 14:10
Taktix® wrote:
20 Jun 2019, 13:58
...exceptionally viscous GOP
Whether that's a typo or not, it works either way.
:lol:
Jesus, I can't even get credit for a little dash of imagery :(

And their's no viciousness in the GOP. Each and every one of them barring Amash is a fucking coward for not standing up for America.
More imagery?
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Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by Pham Nuwen » 20 Jun 2019, 19:33

Jennifer wrote:
20 Jun 2019, 18:27
Highway wrote:
20 Jun 2019, 18:22
Jennifer wrote:
20 Jun 2019, 17:51
JasonL wrote:
20 Jun 2019, 17:46
I'm not even sure we are being cavalier, we have a program to install malware into Russian energy grids, and that's just one thing that has been intentionally leaked. I think that there is a complex set of situations going on wherein you may not want to directly pound the table and escalate. It's cold war logic, don't call it what it is because you have to be careful - retaliate through back channels. Trump is petty and stupid and unsophisticated, but there are institutional forces that prevent his every random utterance from mattering all that much.

Yes, I think russia and the US are on the verge of something pretty significant electronic conflict wise. No, I don't think the optics of the situation either look all that much like a lapdog unless you already determined that's the answer to every behavior, nor do I think the above the line visible reaction is the only reaction taking place.
I didn't say "we" are being cavalier about it; I said the GOP is. Like, in my own current home state of Georgia, GOP Secretary of state (now governor) Brian Kemp refused DHS funding to help guard against interference in the 2016 election. Why do you suppose a man who in other contexts is so hardcore "law and order" shrugged off a Homeland Security threat (and funds to cover it) in this instance?
Because he thought it would help him win. It was pretty obvious he'd do anything to win.
Duh. But I'd like to know what Jason thinks about the matter --- in the specific context of him insisting it's somehow crazy to think the GOP (or certain elected officials therein) might be getting a tad cozy with the Russians for reasons that are not in the best interests of the USA?
Jen,

You are just going to ignore his main point and retort with a broken analogy you have been doing for years. That's how you roll when you two argue.
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Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by Jennifer » 20 Jun 2019, 19:42

Pham Nuwen wrote:
20 Jun 2019, 19:33
Jennifer wrote:
20 Jun 2019, 18:27
Highway wrote:
20 Jun 2019, 18:22
Jennifer wrote:
20 Jun 2019, 17:51
JasonL wrote:
20 Jun 2019, 17:46
I'm not even sure we are being cavalier, we have a program to install malware into Russian energy grids, and that's just one thing that has been intentionally leaked. I think that there is a complex set of situations going on wherein you may not want to directly pound the table and escalate. It's cold war logic, don't call it what it is because you have to be careful - retaliate through back channels. Trump is petty and stupid and unsophisticated, but there are institutional forces that prevent his every random utterance from mattering all that much.

Yes, I think russia and the US are on the verge of something pretty significant electronic conflict wise. No, I don't think the optics of the situation either look all that much like a lapdog unless you already determined that's the answer to every behavior, nor do I think the above the line visible reaction is the only reaction taking place.
I didn't say "we" are being cavalier about it; I said the GOP is. Like, in my own current home state of Georgia, GOP Secretary of state (now governor) Brian Kemp refused DHS funding to help guard against interference in the 2016 election. Why do you suppose a man who in other contexts is so hardcore "law and order" shrugged off a Homeland Security threat (and funds to cover it) in this instance?
Because he thought it would help him win. It was pretty obvious he'd do anything to win.
Duh. But I'd like to know what Jason thinks about the matter --- in the specific context of him insisting it's somehow crazy to think the GOP (or certain elected officials therein) might be getting a tad cozy with the Russians for reasons that are not in the best interests of the USA?
Jen,

You are just going to ignore his main point and retort with a broken analogy you have been doing for years. That's how you roll when you two argue.
Thus far, the man hasn't even had the chance to state his point, whatever it may be. I did learn what Thoreau and Highway think he'd say, though. (Also, FWIW, I've not mentioned any analogies here, merely brought up actual historical examples of GOPers ignoring, denying or downplaying issues with election integrity.)
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Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by Pham Nuwen » 20 Jun 2019, 19:47

We all know how you feel, jen. We all know how JasonL feels. I'm just saying maybe let's not waste time calling him out? You won't like his answer. You will ignore his main point. You will make a terrible analogy.

That's how it's been for a while. Why pretend?
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Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by Jennifer » 20 Jun 2019, 20:00

Pham Nuwen wrote:
20 Jun 2019, 19:47
We all know how you feel, jen. We all know how JasonL feels.
Maybe not? In all the time this forum's been up, various members have changed their minds on various issues (I personally now take back anything I ever said along the lines of "Maybe we can try rescinding certain parts of the CRA now that racism's on its way out -- first black president, woo hoo!" -- I don't deny having said and believed such things once, but I will say I don't believe them anymore). I think there's a few folks who have drifted away from "Trump won't do much damage even if he does win" and "Trump is not a narcissist and it's dishonest to say otherwise," too.
I'm just saying maybe let's not waste time calling him out?
Better to waste time with comments explaining why it's a waste of time to discuss certain topics on a thread dedicated to that specific topic, you mean?

Nonetheless, I appreciate your well-meaning efforts to ensure my time is not wasted improperly.
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Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by Pham Nuwen » 20 Jun 2019, 20:16

Jennifer wrote:
20 Jun 2019, 20:00
Better to waste time with comments explaining why it's a waste of time to discuss certain topics on a thread dedicated to that specific topic, you mean?

Nonetheless, I appreciate your well-meaning efforts to ensure my time is not wasted improperly.
Sounds like you've (like always, huh) got it all figured out. And you're welcome.
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