Putin on the Writs

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JasonL
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Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by JasonL » 29 May 2019, 08:07

That's a litany of almost literally nothing that's unexplained by "he at one point was trying to get a big real estate deal in moscow done - these are people you talk to about that" plus "he had sycophant scumbags associated with his campaign" plus "he does the best foreign policy via flattery, the very best".

He's a buffoon who wanted a deal with russians and he became president, the end. You will keep chasing this until he wins another election.

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Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by Warren » 29 May 2019, 10:27

I wish there was cut/copy/paste for audio. Everybody in this thread needs to listen to the last four and a half minutes of the last 5th col. podcast (ep 142).
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Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by Pham Nuwen » 29 May 2019, 10:27

JasonL wrote:
29 May 2019, 08:07
He's a buffoon who wanted a deal with russians and he became president, the end.
This.
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Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by thoreau » 29 May 2019, 10:44

Pham Nuwen wrote:
JasonL wrote:
29 May 2019, 08:07
He's a buffoon who wanted a deal with russians and he became president, the end.
This.
On Trump's end it was about money. On their end it was about influence. Money buys influence. If not over the big boss then at least over underlings who can pass information both ways.

There's a reason why people with large debts have a hard time getting security clearances. There's a reason why overseas business connections will be scrutinized in background investigations.

Suppose an engineer was spending some of his time helping his family's business with Huawei contracts. Does anyone here think the US government would hire this guy into a job requiring a clearance? (Unless it was the sort of job where they want someone who has ties to Huawei, and not just so both sides can have friendly relations.)

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Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by thoreau » 29 May 2019, 10:47

Why are you guys cool with the president knowing and not caring that GRU hackers helped his campaign?

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Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by thoreau » 29 May 2019, 10:54

I mean, a lot of people here work for organizations that handle sensitive information. If your companies were hacked and the guys who did it were showering favors on a job applicant, and he had no interest in cutting off those ties...does he get the job? Especially a senior management job?

I don't think Putin is plotting out killer tariffs. I think our society is walking away from the notion of standards. And we will pay a price.

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Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by Aresen » 29 May 2019, 11:09

thoreau wrote:
29 May 2019, 10:47
Why are you guys cool with the president knowing and not caring that GRU hackers helped his campaign?
I'm not cool with it. I just don't think they were all that effective; they were certainly not as effective as Clinton's persona and her political miscalculations in getting Trump elected.

Johnson got 3 million more votes in 2016 than in 2012. Stein added nearly a million to her total. That probably had more to do with Trump winning than the GRU ever did.
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Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by thoreau » 29 May 2019, 11:25

So, no harm, no foul?

It's not a question of what actually tipped this campaign. It's about duty and avoiding conflicts of interest. Trump knows goddamn well who helped him, he's striven mightily to put a damper on investigations into the responsible parties, and he's dragged his feet on sanctions in response.

That is such a fundamental conflict of interest, such a brazen abdication of duty, that it shouldn't be allowed in any leader. All of the people shrugging and saying "Eh, he's just a stupid troll, who cares?" are just part of the downward spiral. First, even if he's "just" a stupid troll, that fact alone should be horrifying. Now add in his monumental conflicts of interest and what we have is horrifying. An elected leader who enjoys campaign assistance from a foreign dictator is inimical to the principles of a republic.

And people here are just "Eh, whatevz. He's a stupid troll and you're paranoid." It's nihilism.

I mean, say what you will about the principles of Trumpian conservatism. At least it's an ethos.
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Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by Aresen » 29 May 2019, 12:41

thoreau wrote:
29 May 2019, 11:25
So, no harm, no foul?

It's not a question of what actually tipped this campaign. It's about duty and avoiding conflicts of interest. Trump knows goddamn well who helped him, he's striven mightily to put a damper on investigations into the responsible parties, and he's dragged his feet on sanctions in response.

That is such a fundamental conflict of interest, such a brazen abdication of duty, that it shouldn't be allowed in any leader. All of the people shrugging and saying "Eh, he's just a stupid troll, who cares?" are just part of the downward spiral. First, even if he's "just" a stupid troll, that fact alone should be horrifying. Now add in his monumental conflicts of interest and what we have is horrifying. An elected leader who enjoys campaign assistance from a foreign dictator is inimical to the principles of a republic.

And people here are just "Eh, whatevz. He's a stupid troll and you're paranoid." It's nihilism.

I mean, say what you will about the principles of Trumpian conservatism. At least it's an ethos.
You are affirming the consequent. I agree that Trump is a corrupt fool, but that does not mean that I accept that Putin swung the 2016 election. Putin and the GRU certainly tried to do so - they are following the old KGB path of disinformation - and Trump's election was certainly Putin's preferred outcome; that does not mean the GRU caused it. The benefit is more in the way of Trump being a loose cannon than an actual mole doing Putin's bidding.

As a counter-point, look at Trump tearing up the arms control treaty last year: Putin cannot be happy about that. The usual American response to Putin's violations of the treaty (and the Russians were violating it) would have been some protest that the Russians ignored and just lied about. Putin is intelligent enough to know that US technology and production capacity could vastly outproduce Russia when it comes to new weapons; he would definitely prefer the usual situation where Russia violates treaties and the US abides by them.

I am vastly more concerned about Trump's pandering to racists and socons, his support of regimes like the House of Saud and Duarte, and his ignorance of trade than I am about his chuminess with Russian Oligarchs.

And, while we're talking about foreigners influencing candidates, can we talk about the Clinton Foundation as well?
The Clinton Foundation Donors List On the Foundation's website wrote: Donations larger than $25,000,000
The Children's Investment Fund Foundation
UNITAID
Donations from $10,000,001 to $25,000,000
AUSAID
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
Stephen L. Bing
COPRESIDA-Secretariado Tecnico
Fred Eychaner
Frank Giustra, Chief Executive Officer, The Radcliffe Foundation
Tom Golisano
The Hunter Foundation
Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
The ELMA Foundation
Theodore W. Waitt
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Government of Norway
Nationale Postcode Loterij
Haim Saban and The Saban Family Foundation
Michael Schumacher
The Wasserman Foundation
Donations from $1,000,001 to $5,000,000
S. D. Abraham
Absolute Return for Kids (ARK)
Sheikh Mohammed H. Al-Amoudi
Alltel Corporation
Nasser Al-Rashid
Smith and Elizabeth Bagley
The Eli & Edythe Broad Foundation
Richard Caring
Gilbert R. Chagoury
Citi Foundation
Clinton Giustra Sustainable Growth Initiative - Canada
Victor P. Dahdaleh & The Victor Phillip Dahdaleh Charitable Foundation
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Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by thoreau » 29 May 2019, 12:57

Who said that Putin swung the election? I said that Putin aided Trump, Trump knew it, and he has dragged his feet on punishing Russia for said help. Whether or not the help was decisive does not change its corrupting nature.

If I slip a cop $100 and he tries to obstruct investigations into my activity, whether or not that Benjamin actually made any substantive change in his lifestyle is irrelevant. He is compromised. He needs to be removed ASAP, not just during the next regular performance review cycle.

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Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by JD » 29 May 2019, 13:08

The Clinton Foundation Donors List On the Foundation's website wrote: Donations from $5,000,001 to $10,000,000
Nationale Postcode Loterij
That just sounds like they got an email saying "DEAR CLINTON FOUNDATION, Congratulations! We happily announce to you the draw of the Nationale Postcode Loterij Sweepstake International programs held on the 27th of March, 2004 in the Hague, Netherlands. Your e-mail address attached to ticket number: 564 75600545188 with Serial number 5368/02 drew the lucky numbers: 19-6-26-17-35-7, which subsequently won you the lottery in the 2nd category. To claim your winnings of one (1) US Presidency, please contact MR HENDRIK VREESENS..."
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Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by Jennifer » 29 May 2019, 15:42

thoreau wrote:
29 May 2019, 10:47
Why are you guys cool with the president knowing and not caring that GRU hackers helped his campaign?
Perhaps because being uncool with it requires agreeing with the dread Ess Jay Doubleyous about something?
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Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by JasonL » 29 May 2019, 16:06

I mean, FFS. There is no SJW talk in this thread anywhere you are desperately grasping at nothing.

There are a series of claims in play and the game here is to make the most extreme comically awful implausible ones, receive criticism for the goofiness of such, then retreat to more and more nebulous things around "Trump is bad why don't you think Trump is bad". I do think he's bad, but I think claims anywhere near "he's a Putin puppet" are just hilariously goofy an indefensible.

Adjacent to "he's a puppet/Putin sets the policy and Trump sells it to the rubes" is something like "he's compromised because Russia helped his campaign". I agree Russia helped his campaign. I agree that foreign powers often help people get elected. I agree it's bad when Israel does it, bad when Our Friends The House of Saud do it, and I agree that the mechanism from Russia is more directly aggressive. I agree that we are in electronic warfare with Russia and also China at a minimum. I don't agree that these conditions are sufficient in themselves to invalidate a presidency nor to establish quid pro quo. I think it is very serious to overturn an election result and your first second and third preferences to do so would be "the next election".

Adjacent to "he's compromised" is something like "hes easily influenced". Yeah well, he's the stupid president we have that stupid people wanted in office and here we are.

Adjacent to "he's easily influenced" is "he's awful and embarrassing and dumb". I mean, yeah.

Then like a hundred expanding spheres of nebulous complaint later you get "Something something SJW - can't believe you all defend Trump (from the entire sphere of critique even though you addresed the lowest one only ) - you all just want to own the libs".

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Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by thoreau » 29 May 2019, 16:16

I don't agree with what Jennifer said in her most recent message. This has jack shit to do with SJWs.

I think Taktix over-estimates the level of detail in Putin's plans.

I do think Trump is compromised in a way that merits removal. Otherwise we might as well walk away from the notion of standards.

I also think that his efforts to obstruct the investigation would, on their own, merit removal, and the fact that they're tied into how compromised he is just amplify the need for removal. If he isn't removed for this, his successors will take note and we will not like the consequences.
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Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by Warren » 29 May 2019, 16:26

thoreau wrote:
29 May 2019, 16:16
I do think Trump is compromised in a way that merits removal. Otherwise we might as well walk away from the notion of standards.
I mean. That's just crazy. If the notion of standards requires Trump be removed, then we never had, nor could ever have, a notion of standards.
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Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by thoreau » 29 May 2019, 16:32

Warren wrote:
29 May 2019, 16:26
thoreau wrote:
29 May 2019, 16:16
I do think Trump is compromised in a way that merits removal. Otherwise we might as well walk away from the notion of standards.
I mean. That's just crazy. If the notion of standards requires Trump be removed, then we never had, nor could ever have, a notion of standards.
You know what? Fuck it. Full nihilism.

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Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by Jennifer » 29 May 2019, 16:32

FWIW, I might be a little more swayed by the "Nothing to see here re: Trump" brigades were they not the same people who have made a point of hand-waving away every possible concern over Trump since he got elected.
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Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by Aresen » 29 May 2019, 16:33

thoreau wrote:
29 May 2019, 16:16
I do think Trump is compromised in a way that merits removal. Otherwise we might as well walk away from the notion of standards.
I agree Trump should go, but I am stuck with the fact that Team Red controls the Senate and even if the House impeaches, there is no way the Senate will convict. (Unless Trump gets an abortion to get rid of Putin's baby.) Trump could bloody well hand Putin the plans and specs to the F35 and the USS Gerald Ford and the Red Senate wouldn't convict. I think a failed impeachment would only embolden Trump, so I am willing to wait for November 3, 2020 and hope I am right in my belief he won't be re-elected.

(I am also acutely aware that the Dominionist Mike Pence is his VP.)
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Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by Mo » 30 May 2019, 09:18

Aresen wrote:
29 May 2019, 11:09
thoreau wrote:
29 May 2019, 10:47
Why are you guys cool with the president knowing and not caring that GRU hackers helped his campaign?
I'm not cool with it. I just don't think they were all that effective; they were certainly not as effective as Clinton's persona and her political miscalculations in getting Trump elected.

Johnson got 3 million more votes in 2016 than in 2012. Stein added nearly a million to her total. That probably had more to do with Trump winning than the GRU ever did.
I would say that the email hacking was sufficient to turn an HRC win into a loss. However, it never should have been close enough for the emails to be a sufficient factor.
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Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by JasonL » 30 May 2019, 09:37

Mo wrote:
30 May 2019, 09:18
Aresen wrote:
29 May 2019, 11:09
thoreau wrote:
29 May 2019, 10:47
Why are you guys cool with the president knowing and not caring that GRU hackers helped his campaign?
I'm not cool with it. I just don't think they were all that effective; they were certainly not as effective as Clinton's persona and her political miscalculations in getting Trump elected.

Johnson got 3 million more votes in 2016 than in 2012. Stein added nearly a million to her total. That probably had more to do with Trump winning than the GRU ever did.
I would say that the email hacking was sufficient to turn an HRC win into a loss. However, it never should have been close enough for the emails to be a sufficient factor.
I hate to say it but close elections are actually like coin tosses people stare at too carefully to find The Reason it came up heads. They tend to try to isolate the thing working against their person and saying that's the whole picture. Even if you can assess magnitudes, there are lots and lots of variables in play and many of them are codependent. People start saying weird things like "so and so group felt bad and stayed home" but that was a choice man and it is part of the process. The most salient feature of a close election is that it's close. There almost is no such thing as an unfair close loss in a democratic vote the size of a presidential election.

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Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by Mo » 30 May 2019, 09:43

There's no one thing, but there are a lot of "but for"s. But for the DNC email drop or the Comey letter (or a bunch of other stuff), HRC would be president. All of those added to the election being closer than it should have been and none of them are why she lost, but it's like saying the PI at the end of the Saints-Rams game didn't affect the outcome of the game.
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Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by JasonL » 30 May 2019, 10:00

Mo wrote:
30 May 2019, 09:43
There's no one thing, but there are a lot of "but for"s. But for the DNC email drop or the Comey letter (or a bunch of other stuff), HRC would be president. All of those added to the election being closer than it should have been and none of them are why she lost, but it's like saying the PI at the end of the Saints-Rams game didn't affect the outcome of the game.
Right, and like that game do we get to look at all the non calls and questionable things that even allowed that possession to happen or just the one? It's like trying to micro officiate James Harden - do you give him any of those fouls? All of them? Just the one he's really mad about?

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Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by Mo » 30 May 2019, 10:48

JasonL wrote:
30 May 2019, 10:00
Mo wrote:
30 May 2019, 09:43
There's no one thing, but there are a lot of "but for"s. But for the DNC email drop or the Comey letter (or a bunch of other stuff), HRC would be president. All of those added to the election being closer than it should have been and none of them are why she lost, but it's like saying the PI at the end of the Saints-Rams game didn't affect the outcome of the game.
Right, and like that game do we get to look at all the non calls and questionable things that even allowed that possession to happen or just the one? It's like trying to micro officiate James Harden - do you give him any of those fouls? All of them? Just the one he's really mad about?
You mean the part where I said:
However, it never should have been close enough for the emails to be a sufficient factor.
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Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by lunchstealer » 30 May 2019, 11:03

JasonL wrote:
Mo wrote:
30 May 2019, 09:18
Aresen wrote:
29 May 2019, 11:09
thoreau wrote:
29 May 2019, 10:47
Why are you guys cool with the president knowing and not caring that GRU hackers helped his campaign?
I'm not cool with it. I just don't think they were all that effective; they were certainly not as effective as Clinton's persona and her political miscalculations in getting Trump elected.

Johnson got 3 million more votes in 2016 than in 2012. Stein added nearly a million to her total. That probably had more to do with Trump winning than the GRU ever did.
I would say that the email hacking was sufficient to turn an HRC win into a loss. However, it never should have been close enough for the emails to be a sufficient factor.
I hate to say it but close elections are actually like coin tosses people stare at too carefully to find The Reason it came up heads. They tend to try to isolate the thing working against their person and saying that's the whole picture.
I think “the” is the problem here in BOTH sides of this analysis. In an election this close, there generally isn’t a ‘the reason’. That’s because everything is important. There’s no one thing because any of the things could tip things the other way.

Without the hack, it never becomes a narrative that she rigged the primary. That probably softens the blow from Comey because there hasn’t been all the seeming confirmation of the crooked Hilary thing, but maybe not.

But any factor of sufficient magnitude is a necessary condition. This election was so close that those are really small magnitudes. So it’s not that we’re looking to see if Russia is a sufficient condition, or THE thing that tipped the election. It’s that every factor of a given magnitude is a necessary condition. Take away any necessary condition and you get the other result.

So yes, Russian hacking probably did cause her to lose. And her personality. And her private server. And her gender. And ignoring MI/PA/WI.

Which you’d think dilutes Russia’s culpability, but it really doesn’t. Because even though all sorts of other stuff is equally important, if you take away hacking you get a different outcome which means Russia was super goddamned critical to Trumps win.
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Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by thoreau » 30 May 2019, 11:16

The strongest evidence that Russian meddling didn't matter is that Donaldik Fredovich now says it did.



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