Putin on the Writs

User avatar
Taktix®
Posts: 7848
Joined: 07 May 2010, 05:29
Location: The Caribbean

Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by Taktix® » 05 Feb 2019, 15:37

JasonL wrote:
05 Feb 2019, 11:51
I actually see this as similar to the NK agreement. Putin was ignoring it before. It may be politically bad to get out of it but what everyone else has been doing is pretending like he wasn't violating the terms so you could pretend the treaty still existed.
But before, with the treaty in place, you could identify the violations and one hopes the world would have eventually mustered the will to stand up to Putin. Now he can do whatever he wants (which, yes, he increasingly has already been) and also rightfully claim he is not in violation of anything.

It will be far more difficult to get the necessary international consensus to stop Putin from crossing lines (both figurative and literal) if there are no longer any lines...
Last edited by Taktix® on 05 Feb 2019, 15:40, edited 1 time in total.
"Guilty as charged. Go ahead and ban me from the mall." - Ellie

User avatar
JasonL
Posts: 23445
Joined: 05 May 2010, 17:22

Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by JasonL » 05 Feb 2019, 15:39

That's one theory. The other is he never has cared and still doesn't and he uses the rule as a binding constraint on others to strategic advantage.

User avatar
Taktix®
Posts: 7848
Joined: 07 May 2010, 05:29
Location: The Caribbean

Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by Taktix® » 05 Feb 2019, 15:43

JasonL wrote:
05 Feb 2019, 15:39
That's one theory. The other is he never has cared and still doesn't and he uses the rule as a binding constraint on others to strategic advantage.
Well, that implies there is some strategic advantage to be gained for the U.S. in withdrawal. What U.S. goals or aims were being "bindingly constrained" by the treaty that we are now free to pursue?
"Guilty as charged. Go ahead and ban me from the mall." - Ellie

User avatar
JasonL
Posts: 23445
Joined: 05 May 2010, 17:22

Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by JasonL » 05 Feb 2019, 15:45

He has mid range ground based regional nukes and we don't. That's what he wants it's not what we want.

User avatar
thoreau
Posts: 27233
Joined: 06 May 2010, 12:56
Location: Back to the lab again

Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by thoreau » 05 Feb 2019, 15:55

Given that Putin wants to violate the treaties, US policymakers need to decide whether to apply the penalties in the treaties or not. Trump decided to walk away from the treaty.

Interestingly, he also decided not to apply sanctions that Congress had approved against Russia for other matters.

He seems remarkably disinterested in enforcing any penalties against Russia.
"They were basically like D&D min maxers, but instead of pissing off their DM, they destroyed the global economy. Also, instead of their DM making a level 7 paladin fight a beholder as punishment, he got a +3 sword of turning."
--Mo

User avatar
JasonL
Posts: 23445
Joined: 05 May 2010, 17:22

Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by JasonL » 05 Feb 2019, 16:12

There are sanctions in place, even new sanctions tied to election interference.

https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-sanction ... 77179.html

User avatar
Taktix®
Posts: 7848
Joined: 07 May 2010, 05:29
Location: The Caribbean

Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by Taktix® » 05 Feb 2019, 16:14

JasonL wrote:
05 Feb 2019, 16:12
There are sanctions in place, even new sanctions tied to election interference.

https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-sanction ... 77179.html
...that exist only on paper. None of these have been enforced by the Trump administration and some have even been lifted.
"Guilty as charged. Go ahead and ban me from the mall." - Ellie

User avatar
Taktix®
Posts: 7848
Joined: 07 May 2010, 05:29
Location: The Caribbean

Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by Taktix® » 05 Feb 2019, 16:15

Taktix® wrote:
05 Feb 2019, 15:43
JasonL wrote:
05 Feb 2019, 15:39
That's one theory. The other is he never has cared and still doesn't and he uses the rule as a binding constraint on others to strategic advantage.
Well, that implies there is some strategic advantage to be gained for the U.S. in withdrawal. What U.S. goals or aims were being "bindingly constrained" by the treaty that we are now free to pursue?
JasonL wrote:
05 Feb 2019, 15:45
He has mid range ground based regional nukes and we don't. That's what he wants it's not what we want.
And the U.S. withdrawing from the INF treat advances this how exactly?
"Guilty as charged. Go ahead and ban me from the mall." - Ellie

User avatar
JasonL
Posts: 23445
Joined: 05 May 2010, 17:22

Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by JasonL » 05 Feb 2019, 16:16

Taktix® wrote:
05 Feb 2019, 16:14
JasonL wrote:
05 Feb 2019, 16:12
There are sanctions in place, even new sanctions tied to election interference.

https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-sanction ... 77179.html
...that exist only on paper. None of these have been enforced by the Trump administration and some have even been lifted.
That is an untrue statement.

User avatar
Mo
Posts: 23900
Joined: 26 Apr 2010, 17:08

Putin on the Writs

Post by Mo » 05 Feb 2019, 16:31

Isn’t the big issue with the INF that there will be a nuke arms race in the Pacific because now China will be encouraged to build up their nuclear arms? Also, doesn’t pulling out of the treaty reward cheating on future treaties? If your punishment for someone not complying with a treaty is to just kill the treaty, then any treaty you want killed without consequences is just to cheat. A better way to respond would be to pressure the Russians by arming the Ukrainians and Baltics to the teeth until the stop.

Theater nukes are stupid wet dreams by people like Bolton who think that low yield nuclear war will remain at the low yield nuclear war level without ever escalating. Which the best you can say about that is that it’s an ethos, but not one I would be willing to test civilization on.
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

no one ever yells worldstar when a pet gets fucked up - dhex

User avatar
JasonL
Posts: 23445
Joined: 05 May 2010, 17:22

Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by JasonL » 05 Feb 2019, 17:02

But ... you ignored the treaty in the first place. It didn't bind your actions. Aren't we dancing around the idea that the treaty doesn't mean anything if pushed brinkmanship style which is what all these guys always do? What's the incentive for maintaining an agreement with the "unless you really do it at which time ... nothing was ever going to happen".

I'm not certain it was a good thing to do to leave the treaty, but I'm also not certain asymmetrical development by a committed Russia is controllable within the framework of the treaty.

Arming Ukrainians is independent of the treaty.

User avatar
Mo
Posts: 23900
Joined: 26 Apr 2010, 17:08

Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by Mo » 05 Feb 2019, 17:12

Isn’t the way to get them to do what you want to do something they don’t want you to do? Killing the treaty gives them what they want without any sort of consequences for their violations. It’s bad for treaty norms in general.
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

no one ever yells worldstar when a pet gets fucked up - dhex

User avatar
thoreau
Posts: 27233
Joined: 06 May 2010, 12:56
Location: Back to the lab again

Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by thoreau » 05 Feb 2019, 17:25

I agree with Daniel Larison's take.

https://www.theamericanconservative.com ... s-control/
"They were basically like D&D min maxers, but instead of pissing off their DM, they destroyed the global economy. Also, instead of their DM making a level 7 paladin fight a beholder as punishment, he got a +3 sword of turning."
--Mo

User avatar
Taktix®
Posts: 7848
Joined: 07 May 2010, 05:29
Location: The Caribbean

Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by Taktix® » 06 Feb 2019, 02:43

JasonL wrote:
05 Feb 2019, 16:16
Taktix® wrote:
05 Feb 2019, 16:14
JasonL wrote:
05 Feb 2019, 16:12
There are sanctions in place, even new sanctions tied to election interference.

https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-sanction ... 77179.html
...that exist only on paper. None of these have been enforced by the Trump administration and some have even been lifted.
That is an untrue statement.
Huh?

In August 2017, Trump signed into law the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, or CAATSA, despite calling it “seriously flawed.” He then bypassed a congressionally mandated deadline in January to act on the bill and impose new sanctions on Russia for the election allegations.

Trump’s Business Needed Russia Sanctions Lifted To Obtain Loan For Trump Tower Moscow, Leaked Documents Show

Treasury Dept. Lifts Sanctions on Russian Oligarch’s Companies

Skripal poisoning: Trump admin yet to impose new Russia sanctions required by law

The Trump administration announced late Monday that it would not yet impose new sanctions on Russia as mandated by the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA)

the Democratic lawmakers said the administration has not complied with the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), which was passed overwhelmingly and signed into law last year in part to punish Russia for its election-meddling and its incursions into eastern Europe.

“Several mandatory provisions of the law have not been implemented by the administration, despite strong evidence that actions taken by or on behalf of the Russian government are in violation of the CAATSA sanctions law and applicable executive orders codified by CAATSA,” wrote Sens. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.), Mark Warner (D-VA), and Sherrod Brown (D-OH).


The kept passing them but they were never enforced (a.k.a. the actual responsibility of the executive branch, something he can actually command the "adults in the room" to do).
"Guilty as charged. Go ahead and ban me from the mall." - Ellie

User avatar
JasonL
Posts: 23445
Joined: 05 May 2010, 17:22

Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by JasonL » 06 Feb 2019, 09:40

The upshot is there was a year delay but enforcement did take place. There is an OFAC sanctions list related to CAATSA that is currently in effect at least since September 2018. If you try to process a financial transaction for a covered party you will go to jail.

User avatar
JasonL
Posts: 23445
Joined: 05 May 2010, 17:22

Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by JasonL » 06 Feb 2019, 09:47

I would say in general that the narrative about no sanctions ever being enforced is overblown. It's more like the sanctions regime is hot and cold, with periods during this administration of significant heat.

User avatar
Taktix®
Posts: 7848
Joined: 07 May 2010, 05:29
Location: The Caribbean

Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by Taktix® » 02 Mar 2019, 21:23

This is why the trade war is happening; Putin is trying to cripple our food supply: https://www.axios.com/farmer-bankruptci ... SwEUYjnwxk
"Guilty as charged. Go ahead and ban me from the mall." - Ellie

User avatar
Hugh Akston
Posts: 17655
Joined: 05 May 2010, 15:51
Location: El Pueblo de Nuestra Señora Reina de los Angeles

Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by Hugh Akston » 03 Mar 2019, 01:30

Taktix® wrote:
02 Mar 2019, 21:23
This is why the trade war is happening; Putin is trying to cripple our food supply: https://www.axios.com/farmer-bankruptci ... SwEUYjnwxk
I can't access the original WSJ article. Are the bankruptcies affecting crops for domestic consumption or cash crops grown for export? And since the WSJ concludes that Putin is singlehandedly manipulating the unbelievably complex global food supply chain in order to starve the American people, I assume that means that the bankrupted farms are being seized, burned, and salted (with Black Sea salt, naturally) so that nothing can grow again.
"Is a Lulztopia the best we can hope for?!?" ~Taktix®
"Inexplicably cockfighting monsters that live in your pants" ~Jadagul

User avatar
Warren
Posts: 25682
Joined: 26 Apr 2010, 17:03
Location: Goat Rope MO
Contact:

Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by Warren » 03 Mar 2019, 11:21

Low commodity prices have been gouging U.S. farmers’ bottom lines for years now, exacerbated by increasing agricultural competition from Russia and Brazil. President Trump’s trade disputes, meanwhile, are adding salt to the wounds, as tariffs drive down prices and decrease profit for farmers.
You better check with Wilbur on that one Orville. I don't think it's gonna fly.
We fucked up, so we're going to need more money. - Tuco

User avatar
Taktix®
Posts: 7848
Joined: 07 May 2010, 05:29
Location: The Caribbean

Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by Taktix® » 05 Mar 2019, 00:56

Warren wrote:
03 Mar 2019, 11:21
Low commodity prices have been gouging U.S. farmers’ bottom lines for years now, exacerbated by increasing agricultural competition from Russia and Brazil. President Trump’s trade disputes, meanwhile, are adding salt to the wounds, as tariffs drive down prices and decrease profit for farmers.
You better check with Wilbur on that one Orville. I don't think it's gonna fly.
[citation needed]
"Guilty as charged. Go ahead and ban me from the mall." - Ellie

User avatar
Taktix®
Posts: 7848
Joined: 07 May 2010, 05:29
Location: The Caribbean

Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by Taktix® » 05 Mar 2019, 01:12

Hugh Akston wrote:
03 Mar 2019, 01:30
Taktix® wrote:
02 Mar 2019, 21:23
This is why the trade war is happening; Putin is trying to cripple our food supply: https://www.axios.com/farmer-bankruptci ... SwEUYjnwxk
I can't access the original WSJ article. Are the bankruptcies affecting crops for domestic consumption or cash crops grown for export? And since the WSJ concludes that Putin is singlehandedly manipulating the unbelievably complex global food supply chain in order to starve the American people, I assume that means that the bankrupted farms are being seized, burned, and salted (with Black Sea salt, naturally) so that nothing can grow again.
What strawman is this?

Seriously, though. The southern border bullshit fucks with American agricultural labor supply and the tariffs fuck with American agricultural markets. It's not salting the earth, but it's pressure and disruption and, if, for a moment, we can stop pretending that we all lost our memories from two years ago, SOLVES ABSOLUTELY NO FUCKING PROBLEM THAT HAS EVER EXISTED ON THE BORDER BECAUSE IT'S ALL MADE UP.

It's written off as a campaign-stunt-cum-voter-base-ambrosia but it's designed to apply pressure to the U.S. economy.

I'd even argue the severe cruelty at the southern border is designed to provide the U.S. with its own Chechnya or Palestine, i.e. a generational animosity that will be a thorn in our side for decades. You think those people, those children, who continue to be abused are just going to forget what the men and women with guns and stars and fucking stripes on their shoulders did to them? To their families?

After all, Russia knows full well the power of a wall...
"Guilty as charged. Go ahead and ban me from the mall." - Ellie

User avatar
Painboy
Posts: 3901
Joined: 18 Feb 2013, 11:33
Location: Seattle

Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by Painboy » 05 Mar 2019, 02:56

Taktix® wrote:
05 Mar 2019, 01:12
Hugh Akston wrote:
03 Mar 2019, 01:30
Taktix® wrote:
02 Mar 2019, 21:23
This is why the trade war is happening; Putin is trying to cripple our food supply: https://www.axios.com/farmer-bankruptci ... SwEUYjnwxk
I can't access the original WSJ article. Are the bankruptcies affecting crops for domestic consumption or cash crops grown for export? And since the WSJ concludes that Putin is singlehandedly manipulating the unbelievably complex global food supply chain in order to starve the American people, I assume that means that the bankrupted farms are being seized, burned, and salted (with Black Sea salt, naturally) so that nothing can grow again.
What strawman is this?

Seriously, though. The southern border bullshit fucks with American agricultural labor supply and the tariffs fuck with American agricultural markets. It's not salting the earth, but it's pressure and disruption and, if, for a moment, we can stop pretending that we all lost our memories from two years ago, SOLVES ABSOLUTELY NO FUCKING PROBLEM THAT HAS EVER EXISTED ON THE BORDER BECAUSE IT'S ALL MADE UP.

It's written off as a campaign-stunt-cum-voter-base-ambrosia but it's designed to apply pressure to the U.S. economy.

I'd even argue the severe cruelty at the southern border is designed to provide the U.S. with its own Chechnya or Palestine, i.e. a generational animosity that will be a thorn in our side for decades. You think those people, those children, who continue to be abused are just going to forget what the men and women with guns and stars and fucking stripes on their shoulders did to them? To their families?

After all, Russia knows full well the power of a wall...
I'm not really certain what you're getting at. But I'll take a stab at it.

- Agriculture as a profession has been a declining industry for the last 200 years. in 1800 over 80% of the population was farmers. Now it's less than 2%. So farmers going out of business isn't really a new thing. Even the article said it's not as high as it was a decade ago.

- Russia and Brazil are poorer countries so they likely have a price advantage in the same way it costs less to make clothes in parts of Asia. That cuts into US profits.

- Any specific policies by Putin are far more likely to be done to aid Russian farmers or Russian consumers than trying to hurt US farmers. Putin still has to worry about his approval in his country and putting money in his own farmer's pockets and decent food into the mouths of his consumers is much more likely to earn that support than trying some scheme to sabotage US farmers.

- Trump is an idiot and likes to get into mini-trade wars. I believe he thinks it's a way to leverage better deals. Unfortunately any tariffs he raises usually gets retaliatory tariffs in return.

- It's also a question of scale. The sugar lobby is likely more detrimental to US agriculture than anything Russia is doing.
Last edited by Painboy on 05 Mar 2019, 11:31, edited 1 time in total.

User avatar
JasonL
Posts: 23445
Joined: 05 May 2010, 17:22

Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by JasonL » 05 Mar 2019, 06:46

Take any issue. Ask “how does Putin benefit” make up a story, assign causality. Rinse, repeat.

User avatar
Aresen
Posts: 15336
Joined: 26 Apr 2010, 20:18
Location: Great White Pacific Northwest

Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by Aresen » 05 Mar 2019, 10:51

JasonL wrote:
05 Mar 2019, 06:46
Take any issue. Ask “how does Putin benefit” make up a story, assign causality. Rinse, repeat.
There is no conspiracy theory, no matter how wild, that you cannot find some sort of 'evidence' to support. This is especially true in the internet age.
If Trump supporters wanted a tough guy, why did they elect such a whiny bitch? - Mo

Those who know history are doomed to deja vu. - the innominate one

Never bring a knife to a joke fight" - dhex

User avatar
Dangerman
Posts: 6419
Joined: 07 May 2010, 12:26

Re: Putin on the Writs

Post by Dangerman » 05 Mar 2019, 13:09

Image

Post Reply

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: JD and 7 guests