Worthwhile YouTubez Finds

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Aresen
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Joined: 26 Apr 2010, 20:18
Location: Great White Pacific Northwest

Re: Worthwhile YouTubez Finds

Post by Aresen » 13 May 2019, 16:26

JasonL wrote:
13 May 2019, 10:13
I'm geared towards a fundamental, Humean kind of skepticism. I dont' think anyone should be very confident about very much outside of a few kinds of things that pass specific empirical tests. When you make a big play you should do so with the same humility like 'this is the best call I can make right now cross your fingers' not like "this is a validation of everything I think is true". I acknowledge that view limits me as potential leadership material.
It would save the world a lot of grief if our 'leaders' took that approach. Ghaddafi might still be in power and Libya only half-fucked instead of totally fucked.
If Trump supporters wanted a tough guy, why did they elect such a whiny bitch? - Mo

Those who know history are doomed to deja vu. - the innominate one

Never bring a knife to a joke fight" - dhex

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JasonL
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Joined: 05 May 2010, 17:22

Re: Worthwhile YouTubez Finds

Post by JasonL » 13 May 2019, 16:47

Aresen wrote:
13 May 2019, 16:26
JasonL wrote:
13 May 2019, 10:13
I'm geared towards a fundamental, Humean kind of skepticism. I dont' think anyone should be very confident about very much outside of a few kinds of things that pass specific empirical tests. When you make a big play you should do so with the same humility like 'this is the best call I can make right now cross your fingers' not like "this is a validation of everything I think is true". I acknowledge that view limits me as potential leadership material.
It would save the world a lot of grief if our 'leaders' took that approach. Ghaddafi might still be in power and Libya only half-fucked instead of totally fucked.
One of the crappy things about high stakes brinkmanship is it forces you into Black Swan mode even if you aren't inclined to think that way. It's one of the reasons I'm so resistant to DOOOOM stories. If you take the large magnitude disaster seriously, your range of rational behavior shifts out of the realm where more probable outcomes are supported. If I really think the dollar will become worthless, I should be behaving in a way that will ruin me if I turn out to be wrong. If I think there are WMD in the desert and limited deterrent effects on parties who may employ them, I shift to ticking time bomb reasoning even if not normally inclined that way. If I think global warming will destroy the earth, I may need to advocate very extreme measures. I find it interesting the way people of various inclinations process claims about black swan events of various types.

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