You think Ukraine is joke?

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thoreau
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Re: You think Ukraine is joke?

Post by thoreau » 29 Aug 2014, 17:10

The fact that John Kerry, an utterly establishment figure, is willing to support dumb shit just shows that the dumb shit is bipartisan.

I am going to be so bold as to say that there is quite literally nothing that's worth provoking a nuclear power over. I cannot think of one single thing that merits Armageddon. Even
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Re: You think Ukraine is joke?

Post by Kolohe » 29 Aug 2014, 17:35

Hugh Akston wrote:
Kolohe wrote:
Taktix® wrote:So this asshole says we should be arming Ukraine: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/ ... ADTo8vD_qB

We only spent the last 60 years avoiding a war with Russia, but you know what? Fuck it, let's start a war over the fucking Ukraine.

What the fuck is wrong with these people?
You mean like (edit: someone on the the staff of)the US Secretary of State did, some months ago?
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and somewhat ironically

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Re: You think Ukraine is joke?

Post by Hugh Akston » 29 Aug 2014, 22:53

Here's another asshole from another establishment think-tank saying that the US should arm Ukraine (but not really arm arm them) because something something something Ivan Drago.
There is, however, something the West can do to change Putin's mind much quicker, namely help Ukraine to win a just war against a foreign aggressor. Sending guns and bullets is not necessary -- Ukraine has enough. What Kiev needs is radar jamming and detection equipment to protect its planes from Russia's anti-aircraft systems (the same kind that shot down the Malaysian Airliner) as well as purely defensive weapons such as anti-tank missiles and some intelligence sharing by the West, including satellite data.

But perhaps just as important, as any weaker nation facing a much bigger aggressor can attest, the Ukrainians need moral support. And nothing will boost it more than effective gestures of battlefield solidarity.
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Re: You think Ukraine is joke?

Post by JasonL » 02 Sep 2014, 10:00

thoreau wrote:The fact that John Kerry, an utterly establishment figure, is willing to support dumb shit just shows that the dumb shit is bipartisan.

I am going to be so bold as to say that there is quite literally nothing that's worth provoking a nuclear power over. I cannot think of one single thing that merits Armageddon. Even
I'd hedge quite literally nothing with something like "very little". An unconstrained nuclear bully is a bad scene that at some margin might need to be provoked (where that means "prevent bully from doing everything he wants to anyone he wants"). That is a small universe of actions that are worth it, but the set is not null.

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Re: You think Ukraine is joke?

Post by Mo » 04 Sep 2014, 14:15

Check out the Russian separatists' new, totally original flag.

Image
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Re: You think Ukraine is joke?

Post by Warren » 05 Sep 2014, 11:05

Not bad, not bad. But those blue stripes, they're uh, they're too plain. They needs somthin. Let's see now, what could we put in the blue stripes to snap it up a bit...
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Re: You think Ukraine is joke?

Post by lunchstealer » 05 Sep 2014, 12:25

Oh, yeah, that flag could do with some polka dots to jazz things up.
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Re: You think Ukraine is joke?

Post by Eric the .5b » 05 Sep 2014, 13:30

Welp, the Blues will be even more thirsty for Kinetic Military Action, now.
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Re: You think Ukraine is joke?

Post by Aresen » 05 Sep 2014, 16:16

Mo wrote:Check out the Russian separatists' new, totally original flag.

Image
Funny, I thought Russians favored St George, not St Andrew.
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Re: You think Ukraine is joke?

Post by D.A. Ridgely » 05 Sep 2014, 17:49

How'd they get the stars off so completely?

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Re: You think Ukraine is joke?

Post by Aresen » 05 Sep 2014, 17:58

D.A. Ridgely wrote:How'd they get the stars off so completely?
Image
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Re: You think Ukraine is joke?

Post by Warren » 05 Sep 2014, 18:55

Ha. Indeed.
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Re: You think Ukraine is joke?

Post by Fin Fang Foom » 08 Oct 2014, 10:13


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Re: You think Ukraine is joke?

Post by Fin Fang Foom » 28 Jun 2015, 10:49

I know it's been a big week news-wise, but you'd think there'd be more talk about the fact that we just moved a trip wire force onto the actual territory of the Former Soviet Union (i.e., the Baltics).

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Re: You think Ukraine is joke?

Post by D.A. Ridgely » 28 Jun 2015, 10:53

Fin Fang Foom wrote:I know it's been a big week news-wise, but you'd think there'd be more talk about the fact that we just moved a trip wire force onto the actual territory of the Former Soviet Union (i.e., the Baltics).
Probably because no one thinks it really is a trip wire.

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Re: You think Ukraine is joke?

Post by Fin Fang Foom » 28 Jun 2015, 10:55

D.A. Ridgely wrote:
Fin Fang Foom wrote:I know it's been a big week news-wise, but you'd think there'd be more talk about the fact that we just moved a trip wire force onto the actual territory of the Former Soviet Union (i.e., the Baltics).
Probably because no one thinks it really is a trip wire.
Because Putin wouldn't attack? Because if Russians started shooting at U.S. troops, I'd expect it to a few million degrees Fahrenheit in pretty short order.

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Re: You think Ukraine is joke?

Post by D.A. Ridgely » 28 Jun 2015, 11:15

Fin Fang Foom wrote:
D.A. Ridgely wrote:
Fin Fang Foom wrote:I know it's been a big week news-wise, but you'd think there'd be more talk about the fact that we just moved a trip wire force onto the actual territory of the Former Soviet Union (i.e., the Baltics).
Probably because no one thinks it really is a trip wire.
Because Putin wouldn't attack? Because if Russians started shooting at U.S. troops, I'd expect it to a few million degrees Fahrenheit in pretty short order.
You'd be wrong, thank God, though I don't think he would. But if Russia mounted a serious invasion, we might actually see direct combat between Russia and the U.S. and that might draw in whatever remnants of NATO non-nuclear troops are within ready distance.

But the trip wire for MAD, probably not even valid in Korea any longer without China as a legitimate nuclear threat to the West, was that Russia and the U.S. would Hiroshimize as much of Middle Europe as it took to get both sides to think twice before firing nuclear weapons at each other.

Putin may be the biggest megalomaniac ruling Russia since Stalin, but he's not afraid the U.S. is going to launch a nuclear attack at Russia and vice versa. That being so, there's no good reason to sacrifice Europe by using tactical nukes there.

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Re: You think Ukraine is joke?

Post by Fin Fang Foom » 28 Jun 2015, 12:12

D.A. Ridgely wrote:
Fin Fang Foom wrote:
D.A. Ridgely wrote:
Fin Fang Foom wrote:I know it's been a big week news-wise, but you'd think there'd be more talk about the fact that we just moved a trip wire force onto the actual territory of the Former Soviet Union (i.e., the Baltics).
Probably because no one thinks it really is a trip wire.
Because Putin wouldn't attack? Because if Russians started shooting at U.S. troops, I'd expect it to a few million degrees Fahrenheit in pretty short order.
You'd be wrong, thank God, though I don't think he would. But if Russia mounted a serious invasion, we might actually see direct combat between Russia and the U.S. and that might draw in whatever remnants of NATO non-nuclear troops are within ready distance.

But the trip wire for MAD, probably not even valid in Korea any longer without China as a legitimate nuclear threat to the West, was that Russia and the U.S. would Hiroshimize as much of Middle Europe as it took to get both sides to think twice before firing nuclear weapons at each other.

Putin may be the biggest megalomaniac ruling Russia since Stalin, but he's not afraid the U.S. is going to launch a nuclear attack at Russia and vice versa. That being so, there's no good reason to sacrifice Europe by using tactical nukes there.
On the one hand, trip wire doesn't mean merely MAD, it means an attack would lead to a more serious U.S. response, conventional or otherwise.

With respect to how states react in the lead up to war, if leaders were rational, then there would not have been a Second Gulf War, a First Gulf War, or a World War II for that matter. Unless Russia won outright, which they might, things might go real bad real quick. If the U.S. advanced into Russia, Putin might get shot by his nuclear football carrier while the leader of the Rocket Forces obliterates himself on vodka shouting "never again, Fashisty!" while launching all the missiles.

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Re: You think Ukraine is joke?

Post by D.A. Ridgely » 28 Jun 2015, 12:51

Fair enough. But given "a few million degrees Fahrenheit," I don't think my reading of your comments was way off.

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Re: You think Ukraine is joke?

Post by Kolohe » 28 Jun 2015, 21:58

I'd be surprised if we have tactical nukes anymore that could be used with less than thirty days notice.
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Re: You think Ukraine is joke?

Post by Fin Fang Foom » 28 Jun 2015, 22:17

D.A. Ridgely wrote:Fair enough. But given "a few million degrees Fahrenheit," I don't think my reading of your comments was way off.
To be completely clear, I think the risk is that a few minor escalations would lead a collapse of Russian capacity to defend herself, leading to nuclear war.

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Re: You think Ukraine is joke?

Post by Aresen » 28 Jun 2015, 22:35

Fin Fang Foom wrote:
D.A. Ridgely wrote:Fair enough. But given "a few million degrees Fahrenheit," I don't think my reading of your comments was way off.
To be completely clear, I think the risk is that a few minor escalations would lead a collapse of Russian capacity to defend herself, leading to nuclear war.
I don't see any scenario where the US would advance troops into Russian Territory, even "Greater Russia" as Putin defines it. What is possible is a serious Russian reverse, such as a regiment being captured or obliterated by Ukranian forces armed with US weapons in such a way that it was impossible for Putin to deny they were regular Russian forces. This could either cause Putin to double down or face a mutiny. Either of those could cause things to spiral out of control very quickly. Even then, it would not be US troops in Russian territory, though it is possible that Putin could decide to take Kiev and the US would commit troops to defending the Ukranian capital.
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Re: You think Ukraine is joke?

Post by thoreau » 28 Jun 2015, 23:39

Aresen wrote:though it is possible that Putin could decide to take Kiev and the US would commit troops to defending the Ukranian capital.
In this generation I do not see US policymakers deciding to defend Kiev with people wearing US military uniforms or other US military markers. Ukrainian leaders, from both sides, have failed to comport themselves as leaders that the US should be willing to risk an escalation over.

A generation from now, much water could go under many bridges and I will hazard no forecasts, but for the next 20 years I do not see the US putting uniformed troops in Ukraine to openly fight Russian troops.
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Re: You think Ukraine is joke?

Post by Aresen » 29 Jun 2015, 00:19

thoreau wrote:
Aresen wrote:though it is possible that Putin could decide to take Kiev and the US would commit troops to defending the Ukranian capital.
In this generation I do not see US policymakers deciding to defend Kiev with people wearing US military uniforms or other US military markers. Ukrainian leaders, from both sides, have failed to comport themselves as leaders that the US should be willing to risk an escalation over.

A generation from now, much water could go under many bridges and I will hazard no forecasts, but for the next 20 years I do not see the US putting uniformed troops in Ukraine to openly fight Russian troops.
I would not make a call either way on that. I don't think it is terribly likely, but if a POTUS were to feel the need to 'show he/she was tough', it is possible. Very stupid, but possible.*

*TBS, if Putin were to reconquer the Ukraine and reintigrate it with 'Greater Russia', the ethnic cleansing of Russians that would follow the next Russian collapse would be horrific.
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Re: You think Ukraine is joke?

Post by thoreau » 29 Jun 2015, 00:41

Aresen wrote:
thoreau wrote:
Aresen wrote:though it is possible that Putin could decide to take Kiev and the US would commit troops to defending the Ukranian capital.
In this generation I do not see US policymakers deciding to defend Kiev with people wearing US military uniforms or other US military markers. Ukrainian leaders, from both sides, have failed to comport themselves as leaders that the US should be willing to risk an escalation over.

A generation from now, much water could go under many bridges and I will hazard no forecasts, but for the next 20 years I do not see the US putting uniformed troops in Ukraine to openly fight Russian troops.
I would not make a call either way on that. I don't think it is terribly likely, but if a POTUS were to feel the need to 'show he/she was tough', it is possible. Very stupid, but possible.
I agree that if US troops were, for whatever reason, already in Ukraine when shit went down, Americans do tend to get war-boners that require medical attention. However, I think that is the very reason why US troops would never be openly stationed there in the first place.
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