You think Ukraine is joke?

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You think Ukraine is joke?

Post by Number 6 » 28 Feb 2014, 19:26

Given how quickly things are going to pot in the Ukraine, I thought perhaps we should have a thread dedicated to it.
So, what are your thoughts, oh mighty gryll?
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Re: You think Ukraine is joke?

Post by D.A. Ridgely » 28 Feb 2014, 19:31

It's plain Ukraine is mainly down the drain.

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Re: You think Ukraine is joke?

Post by the innominate one » 28 Feb 2014, 19:39

Picasso III tried to start a thread on Ukraine already, you know.
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Re: You think Ukraine is joke?

Post by D.A. Ridgely » 28 Feb 2014, 20:09

the innominate one wrote:Picasso III tried to start a thread on Ukraine already, you know.
Were they Picasso's last words?

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Re: You think Ukraine is joke?

Post by GinSlinger » 28 Feb 2014, 20:23

Russian troops entered the Crimean you say?
Half a league, half a league,
Half a league onward,
All in the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.
"Forward, the Light Brigade!
"Charge for the guns!" he said:
Into the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.

"Forward, the Light Brigade!"
Was there a man dismay'd?
Not tho' the soldier knew
Someone had blunder'd:
Theirs not to make reply,
Theirs not to reason why,
Theirs but to do and die:
Into the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.

Cannon to right of them,
Cannon to left of them,
Cannon in front of them
Volley'd and thunder'd;
Storm'd at with shot and shell,
Boldly they rode and well,
Into the jaws of Death,
Into the mouth of Hell
Rode the six hundred.

Flash'd all their sabres bare,
Flash'd as they turn'd in air,
Sabring the gunners there,
Charging an army, while
All the world wonder'd:
Plunged in the battery-smoke
Right thro' the line they broke;
Cossack and Russian
Reel'd from the sabre stroke
Shatter'd and sunder'd.
Then they rode back, but not
Not the six hundred.

Cannon to right of them,
Cannon to left of them,
Cannon behind them
Volley'd and thunder'd;
Storm'd at with shot and shell,
While horse and hero fell,
They that had fought so well
Came thro' the jaws of Death
Back from the mouth of Hell,
All that was left of them,
Left of six hundred.

When can their glory fade?
O the wild charge they made!
All the world wondered.
Honor the charge they made,
Honor the Light Brigade,
Noble six hundred.

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Painboy
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Re: You think Ukraine is joke?

Post by Painboy » 28 Feb 2014, 20:56

For the more metal minded.


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Re: You think Ukraine is joke?

Post by D.A. Ridgely » 28 Feb 2014, 21:06

i sing of Olaf glad and big
whose warmest heart recoiled at war:
a conscientious object-or

his wellbelovéd colonel(trig
westpointer most succinctly bred)
took erring Olaf soon in hand;
but--though an host of overjoyed
noncoms(first knocking on the head
him)do through icy waters roll
that helplessness which others stroke
with brushes recently employed
anent this muddy toiletbowl,
while kindred intellects evoke
allegiance per blunt instruments--
Olaf(being to all intents
a corpse and wanting any rag
upon what God unto him gave)
responds,without getting annoyed
"I will not kiss your fucking flag"

straightway the silver bird looked grave
(departing hurriedly to shave)

but--though all kinds of officers
(a yearning nation's blueeyed pride)
their passive prey did kick and curse
until for wear their clarion
voices and boots were much the worse,
and egged the firstclassprivates on
his rectum wickedly to tease
by means of skilfully applied
bayonets roasted hot with heat--
Olaf(upon what were once knees)
does almost ceaselessly repeat
"there is some shit I will not eat"

our president,being of which
assertions duly notified
threw the yellowsonofabitch
into a dungeon,where he died

Christ(of His mercy infinite)
i pray to see;and Olaf,too

preponderatingly because
unless statistics lie he was
more brave than me:more blond than you.

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Re: You think Ukraine is joke?

Post by GinSlinger » 28 Feb 2014, 21:35

When the 'arf-made recruity goes out to the East
'E acts like a babe an' 'e drinks like a beast,
An' 'e wonders because 'e is frequent deceased
Ere 'e's fit for to serve as a soldier.
Serve, serve, serve as a soldier,
Serve, serve, serve as a soldier,
Serve, serve, serve as a soldier,
So-oldier OF the Queen!

Now all you recruities what's drafted to-day,
You shut up your rag-box an' 'ark to my lay,
An' I'll sing you a soldier as far as I may:
A soldier what's fit for a soldier.
Fit, fit, fit for a soldier . . .

First mind you steer clear o' the grog-sellers' huts,
For they sell you Fixed Bay'nets that rots out your guts --
Ay, drink that 'ud eat the live steel from your butts --
An' it's bad for the young British soldier.
Bad, bad, bad for the soldier . . .

When the cholera comes -- as it will past a doubt --
Keep out of the wet and don't go on the shout,
For the sickness gets in as the liquor dies out,
An' it crumples the young British soldier.
Crum-, crum-, crumples the soldier . . .

But the worst o' your foes is the sun over'ead:
You must wear your 'elmet for all that is said:
If 'e finds you uncovered 'e'll knock you down dead,
An' you'll die like a fool of a soldier.
Fool, fool, fool of a soldier . . .

If you're cast for fatigue by a sergeant unkind,
Don't grouse like a woman nor crack on nor blind;
Be handy and civil, and then you will find
That it's beer for the young British soldier.
Beer, beer, beer for the soldier . . .

Now, if you must marry, take care she is old --
A troop-sergeant's widow's the nicest I'm told,
For beauty won't help if your rations is cold,
Nor love ain't enough for a soldier.
'Nough, 'nough, 'nough for a soldier . . .

If the wife should go wrong with a comrade, be loath
To shoot when you catch 'em -- you'll swing, on my oath! --
Make 'im take 'er and keep 'er: that's Hell for them both,
An' you're shut o' the curse of a soldier.
Curse, curse, curse of a soldier . . .

When first under fire an' you're wishful to duck,
Don't look nor take 'eed at the man that is struck,
Be thankful you're livin', and trust to your luck
And march to your front like a soldier.
Front, front, front like a soldier . . .

When 'arf of your bullets fly wide in the ditch,
Don't call your Martini a cross-eyed old bitch;
She's human as you are -- you treat her as sich,
An' she'll fight for the young British soldier.
Fight, fight, fight for the soldier . . .

When shakin' their bustles like ladies so fine,
The guns o' the enemy wheel into line,
Shoot low at the limbers an' don't mind the shine,
For noise never startles the soldier.
Start-, start-, startles the soldier . . .

If your officer's dead and the sergeants look white,
Remember it's ruin to run from a fight:
So take open order, lie down, and sit tight,
And wait for supports like a soldier.
Wait, wait, wait like a soldier . . .

When you're wounded and left on Afghanistan's plains,
And the women come out to cut up what remains,
Jest roll to your rifle and blow out your brains
An' go to your Gawd like a soldier.
Go, go, go like a soldier,
Go, go, go like a soldier,
Go, go, go like a soldier,
So-oldier of the Queen!

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Warren
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Re: You think Ukraine is joke?

Post by Warren » 01 Mar 2014, 09:01

Painboy wrote:For the more metal minded.

[Iron Maiden Video]
Back in my head bang'n days, Iron Maiden was my favorite metal band. A good deal of my metal collection has not aged well (I'm looking at you Dee Snider), but the Maiden is still impressive. One of the things that put them above the rest is they sang about stuff other than their cocks.
THIS SPACE FOR RENT

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Re: You think Ukraine is joke?

Post by Fin Fang Foom » 01 Mar 2014, 10:29

Warren wrote:
Painboy wrote:For the more metal minded.

[Iron Maiden Video]
Back in my head bang'n days, Iron Maiden was my favorite metal band. A good deal of my metal collection has not aged well (I'm looking at you Dee Snider), but the Maiden is still impressive. One of the things that put them above the rest is they sang about stuff other than their cocks.
If there is a Maiden song about a given subject matter, it will get you through that area of knowledge in most high school/level 101 classes.

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Re: You think Ukraine is joke?

Post by Hugh Akston » 01 Mar 2014, 10:44

I hate to pull this heavy metal thread off-topic, but I'd like to say how comforting it is that, like President Obama, Vladmir Putin has to comply with legislative checks on his warmaking abilities.
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Re: You think Ukraine is joke?

Post by Fin Fang Foom » 01 Mar 2014, 10:53

If WWIII doesn't start, but Russia intervenes militarily in Ukraine, it might mean the end of Putin. The Russian military didn't exactly cover itself in glory in Georgia, and Ukraine is a lot bigger. Quagmire?

That said, there is a good argument for giving the Crimea to Russia, and if it were bought with allowing Ukraine to move into the EU, that might be a deal Ukraine should take. Though Crimea would probably become Kaliningrad/Turkish Cyprus on the Black Sea.

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Re: You think Ukraine is joke?

Post by Painboy » 01 Mar 2014, 12:19

Does Putin have any legitimate challengers in Russia? I don't follow Russian politics that closely but Putin seemed to pretty much have a stranglehold on the government. Is their really a scenario where intervening in the Ukraine would threaten that even if it got ugly? Chechnya was pretty much a meat grinder and he didn't seem to suffer much for it. I mean when you have large parts of his electorate waxing nostalgic for Stalin what does someone have to do to get thrown out of office?

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Re: You think Ukraine is joke?

Post by Shem » 01 Mar 2014, 14:30

Fin Fang Foom wrote:That said, there is a good argument for giving the Crimea to Russia, and if it were bought with allowing Ukraine to move into the EU, that might be a deal Ukraine should take.
This is not a deal Russia would offer. Having Ukraine in their sphere of influence is too central to Russian identity.
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Re: You think Ukraine is joke?

Post by Fin Fang Foom » 01 Mar 2014, 14:52

Shem wrote:
Fin Fang Foom wrote:That said, there is a good argument for giving the Crimea to Russia, and if it were bought with allowing Ukraine to move into the EU, that might be a deal Ukraine should take.
This is not a deal Russia would offer. Having Ukraine in their sphere of influence is too central to Russian identity.
Sure, at least not in the short or medium (20+ years term). When they would be willing to offer it, Russia will be completely broken down (absent some significant change of course).

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Re: You think Ukraine is joke?

Post by Fin Fang Foom » 01 Mar 2014, 14:59

Painboy wrote:Does Putin have any legitimate challengers in Russia? I don't follow Russian politics that closely but Putin seemed to pretty much have a stranglehold on the government. Is their really a scenario where intervening in the Ukraine would threaten that even if it got ugly? Chechnya was pretty much a meat grinder and he didn't seem to suffer much for it. I mean when you have large parts of his electorate waxing nostalgic for Stalin what does someone have to do to get thrown out of office?
He isn't nearly as popular as he used to be, though what's happening now may result in rallying around the flag. The First Chechen War was a disaster for Russia, and the media played a decisive role in killing that war. The Second Chechen War was won partly because the media was kept out. I think it would be far harder to keep the lid on fighting in the Ukraine. Further, I doubt Russia has the ability to do much invading anyways.

My hunch: right now, Putin might be helped out. If there's some Somalia situation where a Russian regiment gets cut off and wiped out, then Putin might be blamed. In any event, the Russian government is not the Iranian government and definitely not North Korea. Putin's probably more hard core about shooting civilians than Yanukovych, but if it goes bad it'll go more on the Egypt side of the spectrum than the Libya or Syrian one. Russia isn't a free country, but one of the reasons Putin looms large as a bad guy is because we hear about his dickery more; it is freer than any Middle Eastern autocracy or China.

The right course of action for Ukraine is probably to move to legitimize itself through elections and complain about Russia. The government should return Russian to its status as co-official language (which they just changed) and do other stuff to settle down ethnic Russians.

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Re: You think Ukraine is joke?

Post by lunchstealer » 01 Mar 2014, 18:41

Shem wrote:
Fin Fang Foom wrote:That said, there is a good argument for giving the Crimea to Russia, and if it were bought with allowing Ukraine to move into the EU, that might be a deal Ukraine should take.
This is not a deal Russia would offer. Having Ukraine in their sphere of influence is too central to Russian identity.
But if they take Crimea by force, they dilute the Russia-leaning voting bloc in Ukraine, and piss off the rest of Ukraine pretty mightily. Would Ukraine be willing to go back into their sphere under those circumstances? Can Russia bring enough economic or political force to bear on them to keep a pissed off Ukraine from permanently realigning westward?
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Re: You think Ukraine is joke?

Post by Painboy » 01 Mar 2014, 20:10

With regard to Russia using force, the Ukraine has a modern, if dated, army. They possess several thousand tanks and armored vehicles. Their active force is listed as over 150,000. I'm not sure how well trained they are but current Russian standards aren't particularly high anymore either from what I can tell. If they got into with Russia this would be on scale much larger than Chechnya which was an asymmetric guerrilla war. This could turn into a full scale war. Of course as 60% of the population of the Ukraine is Russian speaking would the military stand together, break apart, or sit it out?

This article seems to imply they would remain loyal and are a capable military. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/f ... sia-crimea Of course it's the Guardian and I'm not sure what their accuracy is on military matters.

This article goes through several possible scenarios. http://abcnews.go.com/International/ukr ... d=22703348

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Re: You think Ukraine is joke?

Post by GinSlinger » 01 Mar 2014, 21:29

Are the Russians doing anything outside of the Crimea? AFAIK, the Crimea is still quite pro-Russia and anti-Ukraine.

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Re: You think Ukraine is joke?

Post by D.A. Ridgely » 01 Mar 2014, 23:22

Our president, who should know, has accused Putin of violating international law.

[insert "Crimea river" joke here]

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Re: You think Ukraine is joke?

Post by thoreau » 01 Mar 2014, 23:25

If there’s one thing I know, it’s never to mess with mother nature, mother-in-laws, or mother freakin’ Ukrainians.
"They were basically like D&D min maxers, but instead of pissing off their DM, they destroyed the global economy. Also, instead of their DM making a level 7 paladin fight a beholder as punishment, he got a +3 sword of turning."
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Re: You think Ukraine is joke?

Post by Painboy » 01 Mar 2014, 23:44

GinSlinger wrote:Are the Russians doing anything outside of the Crimea? AFAIK, the Crimea is still quite pro-Russia and anti-Ukraine.
From what I read there is a sizable contingent or Tatars living in Crimea (~15%) who are vehemently anti-Russian (for obvious reasons). They could provide a spark for things to get ugly.

Also even though there are a majority of Russian speaking people their not all big on the idea of letting Moscow run their lives, at least that's the sense I get from the articles I've been reading.

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Re: You think Ukraine is joke?

Post by dbcooper » 02 Mar 2014, 05:17

Here's What Is Going To Happen With Ukraine

Ten predictions and one big question mark.

By Kevin Drum | Sat Mar. 1, 2014 3:59 PM GMT

Following up on the previous post, if you do want to fret about Ukraine, I have just the thing for you. I'm going to tell you how this will all unfold:

Vladimir Putin will do something belligerent. (Already done.)

Republicans will demand that we show strength in the face of Putin's provocation. Whatever it is that we're doing, we should do more.

President Obama will denounce whatever it is that Putin does. But regardless of how unequivocal his condemnation is, Bill Kristol will insist that he's failing to support the democratic aspirations of the Ukrainian people.

Journalists will write a variety of thumbsuckers pointing out that our options are extremely limited, what with Ukraine being 5,000 miles away and all.

John McCain will appear on a bunch of Sunday chat shows to bemoan the fact that Obama is weak and no one fears America anymore.

Having written all the "options are limited" thumbsuckers, journalists and columnists will follow McCain's lead and start declaring that the crisis in Ukraine is the greatest foreign policy test of Obama's presidency. It will thus supplant Afghanistan, Egypt, Libya, Syria, Iran, and North Korea for this honor.

In spite of all the trees felled and words spoken about this, nobody will have any good ideas about what kind of action might actually make a difference. There will be scattered calls to impose a few sanctions here and there, introduce a ban on Russian vodka imports, convene NATO, demand a UN Security Council vote, etc. None of this will have any material effect.

Obama will continue to denounce Putin. Perhaps he will convene NATO. For their part, Republicans will continue to insist that he's showing weakness and needs to get serious.

This will all continue for a while.

In the end, it will all settle down into a stalemate, with Russia having thrown its weight around in its near abroad—just like it always has—and the West not having the leverage to do much about it.

Ukraine will...

Actually, there's no telling about #11. Maybe Ukraine will choose (or have foisted on them) a pro-Russian leader that Putin is happy with. Maybe east and west will split apart. Maybe a nominally pro-Western leader will emerge. Who knows? What we do know is that (a) the United States will play only a modest role in all this, and (b) conservative hawks will continue to think that if only we'd done just a little bit more, Putin would have blinked and Ukraine would be free.

You may now go about your regular weekend business.
Slip inside a sleeping bag.

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Re: You think Ukraine is joke?

Post by GinSlinger » 02 Mar 2014, 09:15

Painboy wrote:
GinSlinger wrote:Are the Russians doing anything outside of the Crimea? AFAIK, the Crimea is still quite pro-Russia and anti-Ukraine.
From what I read there is a sizable contingent or Tatars living in Crimea (~15%) who are vehemently anti-Russian (for obvious reasons). They could provide a spark for things to get ugly.

Also even though there are a majority of Russian speaking people their not all big on the idea of letting Moscow run their lives, at least that's the sense I get from the articles I've been reading.
They may not think they're letting Russia run their lives.
The fast-moving events began in the morning, when the pro-Russia prime minister of Crimea, Sergei Aksyonov, declared that he had sole control over the military and the police, and appealed to Mr. Putin for Russian help in safeguarding the region. He also said a public referendum on independence would be held on March 30.

The Kremlin quickly issued a statement saying that Mr. Aksyonov’s plea “would not be ignored,” and within hours the upper chamber of Russia’s Parliament had authorized military action.
And
In Crimea, however, officials said they did not recognize the [Ukrainian] new government, and declared that they had taken control.

Mr. Aksyonov, the regional prime minister, said he was ordering the regional armed forces, the Interior Ministry troops, the Security Service, border guards and other ministries under his direct control. “I ask anyone who disagrees to leave the service,” he said.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/02/world ... .html?_r=0

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Re: You think Ukraine is joke?

Post by Painboy » 02 Mar 2014, 12:34

Yeah it's looking like Crimea is pretty pro-Russian. The color coded map from that article puts it in a pretty good perspective.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014 ... rimea.html

This makes me wonder if it almost wouldn't be better to let Russia have the Crimea in exchange for something. While it doesn't set a very good precedent, what is the Crimea really getting the Ukraine other than a headache. The local Crimean government is already telling Kiev they don't recognize them. If there is tax revenue or the like they would be losing then Russia could pay cash to make up for it. Apparently the Ukraine is having financial troubles so why not kill two birds with one stone? Yes it would suck for those minorities in the region who don't want Russian rule but I don't think there is going to be a non-suck option for them anyway.

Unfortunately there is the whole "national honor" bullshit that inevitably stops these kind of arrangements from actually happening. People often prefer to go to war rather than being "humiliated."

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