The Not-So- and All-Too-Real World of North Korea

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Shem
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Re: The Not-So- and All-Too-Real World of North Korea

Post by Shem » 29 Aug 2017, 10:25

I worry about what happens when one of them fails and crashes into Okayama.
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JasonL
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Re: The Not-So- and All-Too-Real World of North Korea

Post by JasonL » 29 Aug 2017, 10:27

Me too. We need a response that is meaningful but not enough to trigger full war. Good thing we have competent people ... nevermind.

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Warren
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Re: The Not-So- and All-Too-Real World of North Korea

Post by Warren » 29 Aug 2017, 13:19

The bigger worry is that as missile launches become passe, NK will need to make them scarier. I think it's likely that a nuclear warning shot across the bow is being seriously discussed.
And if they do nuke the West Pacific, what are we going to do about that?
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Kolohe
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Re: The Not-So- and All-Too-Real World of North Korea

Post by Kolohe » 29 Aug 2017, 13:21

Total war, with Seoul taking the brunt of the damage on the good guys side.
when you wake up as the queen of the n=1 kingdom and mount your steed non sequiturius, do you look out upon all you survey and think “damn, it feels good to be a green idea sleeping furiously?" - dhex

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Re: The Not-So- and All-Too-Real World of North Korea

Post by Warren » 29 Aug 2017, 13:47

Kolohe wrote:
29 Aug 2017, 13:21
Total war, with Seoul taking the brunt of the damage on the good guys side.
Well that's going to rain down shit on everyone. How fine they bounce the rubble on Seoul kind of a side issue.
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Shem
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Re: The Not-So- and All-Too-Real World of North Korea

Post by Shem » 29 Aug 2017, 14:50

Warren wrote:
29 Aug 2017, 13:47
Kolohe wrote:
29 Aug 2017, 13:21
Total war, with Seoul taking the brunt of the damage on the good guys side.
Well that's going to rain down shit on everyone. How fine they bounce the rubble on Seoul kind of a side issue.
25 million people within rocket range of the DMZ isn't a side issue. It's the single biggest reason military action is off the table.
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Re: The Not-So- and All-Too-Real World of North Korea

Post by Warren » 29 Aug 2017, 15:04

Shem wrote:
29 Aug 2017, 14:50
Warren wrote:
29 Aug 2017, 13:47
Kolohe wrote:
29 Aug 2017, 13:21
Total war, with Seoul taking the brunt of the damage on the good guys side.
Well that's going to rain down shit on everyone. How fine they bounce the rubble on Seoul kind of a side issue.
25 million people within rocket range of the DMZ isn't a side issue. It's the single biggest reason military action is off the table.
I'm saying if NK starts lobbing nukes, how many fall on Seoul compared to how many fall on Tokyo isn't the main issue. Can we take nukes off the table? In a "total war" scenario I don't see how you can.
But even if we suppose NK won't or can't actually nuke a city, if they fly a nuke over Japan and detonate it out at sea, is military action still off the table? Kolohe thinks we throw Seoul under the bus.
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Fin Fang Foom
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Re: The Not-So- and All-Too-Real World of North Korea

Post by Fin Fang Foom » 29 Aug 2017, 15:18

If NK has ten 25kt warheads that they can actually deliver, that'll probably kill less than one million. Casualties in Seoul may be higher than that, and civilian casualties in the North are likely to be even higher.
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Re: The Not-So- and All-Too-Real World of North Korea

Post by Warren » 29 Aug 2017, 15:25

Okay, so Seoul takes it up the ass and some additional staggering but not overwhelming losses for Team US. NK goes into the ash heap of history and who knows what takes its place. At what point do we say that's better than letting NK keep on keeping on? And how close are we to reaching that point?
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Re: The Not-So- and All-Too-Real World of North Korea

Post by nicole » 29 Aug 2017, 15:25

Warren wrote:
29 Aug 2017, 15:04
Shem wrote:
29 Aug 2017, 14:50
Warren wrote:
29 Aug 2017, 13:47
Kolohe wrote:
29 Aug 2017, 13:21
Total war, with Seoul taking the brunt of the damage on the good guys side.
Well that's going to rain down shit on everyone. How fine they bounce the rubble on Seoul kind of a side issue.
25 million people within rocket range of the DMZ isn't a side issue. It's the single biggest reason military action is off the table.
I'm saying if NK starts lobbing nukes, how many fall on Seoul compared to how many fall on Tokyo isn't the main issue. Can we take nukes off the table? In a "total war" scenario I don't see how you can.
But even if we suppose NK won't or can't actually nuke a city, if they fly a nuke over Japan and detonate it out at sea, is military action still off the table? Kolohe thinks we throw Seoul under the bus.
Pyongyang doesn't need nukes to destroy Seoul. They can do that any old time.
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Re: The Not-So- and All-Too-Real World of North Korea

Post by Aresen » 29 Aug 2017, 15:45

I was under the impression that the nukes that North Korea presently has are not suitable for a missile.

TBS, if they actually launched and detonated a nuke into the North Pacific, the Chinese would probably be even more pissed than the US.
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Re: The Not-So- and All-Too-Real World of North Korea

Post by Mo » 29 Aug 2017, 16:02

Warren wrote:
29 Aug 2017, 15:25
Okay, so Seoul takes it up the ass and some additional staggering but not overwhelming losses for Team US. NK goes into the ash heap of history and who knows what takes its place. At what point do we say that's better than letting NK keep on keeping on? And how close are we to reaching that point?
Multiple tens of million of dead Koreans and a humanitarian disaster is a long way from better than the status quo.
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

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Re: The Not-So- and All-Too-Real World of North Korea

Post by fyodor » 29 Aug 2017, 16:37

Mo wrote:
29 Aug 2017, 16:02
Warren wrote:
29 Aug 2017, 15:25
Okay, so Seoul takes it up the ass and some additional staggering but not overwhelming losses for Team US. NK goes into the ash heap of history and who knows what takes its place. At what point do we say that's better than letting NK keep on keeping on? And how close are we to reaching that point?
Multiple tens of million of dead Koreans and a humanitarian disaster is a long way from better than the status quo.
There we have it, it can now officially be said that Mo is objectively pro-Kim Jong Un!! :)
Your optimism just confuses and enrages me. - Timothy

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Re: The Not-So- and All-Too-Real World of North Korea

Post by Warren » 29 Aug 2017, 17:36

Mo wrote:
29 Aug 2017, 16:02
Warren wrote:
29 Aug 2017, 15:25
Okay, so Seoul takes it up the ass and some additional staggering but not overwhelming losses for Team US. NK goes into the ash heap of history and who knows what takes its place. At what point do we say that's better than letting NK keep on keeping on? And how close are we to reaching that point?
Multiple tens of million of dead Koreans and a humanitarian disaster is a long way from better than the status quo.
But what if we can't keep the status quo. What if Un keeps upping the stakes. At what point do we act? And what form can that action take? Is there anything we can do short of all out war? If it comes to it, wouldn't a commitment to all out war be preferable to dancing around with limited tit for tat war?
Gentrification is undocumented immigration for the left-leaning. - Shem

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Re: The Not-So- and All-Too-Real World of North Korea

Post by Jennifer » 29 Aug 2017, 17:39

Warren wrote:
29 Aug 2017, 17:36
Mo wrote:
29 Aug 2017, 16:02
Warren wrote:
29 Aug 2017, 15:25
Okay, so Seoul takes it up the ass and some additional staggering but not overwhelming losses for Team US. NK goes into the ash heap of history and who knows what takes its place. At what point do we say that's better than letting NK keep on keeping on? And how close are we to reaching that point?
Multiple tens of million of dead Koreans and a humanitarian disaster is a long way from better than the status quo.
But what if we can't keep the status quo. What if Un keeps upping the stakes. At what point do we act? And what form can that action take? Is there anything we can do short of all out war? If it comes to it, wouldn't a commitment to all out war be preferable to dancing around with limited tit for tat war?
Why should "we"--meaning the US--feel compelled to handle the problem, as opposed to China, Japan and South Korea? They're the ones far more likely to be hurt by Kim's antics--and also the ones far more likely to suffer the brunt of all-out war with NoKo.
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Re: The Not-So- and All-Too-Real World of North Korea

Post by Warren » 29 Aug 2017, 17:42

Jennifer wrote:
29 Aug 2017, 17:39
Warren wrote:
29 Aug 2017, 17:36
Mo wrote:
29 Aug 2017, 16:02
Warren wrote:
29 Aug 2017, 15:25
Okay, so Seoul takes it up the ass and some additional staggering but not overwhelming losses for Team US. NK goes into the ash heap of history and who knows what takes its place. At what point do we say that's better than letting NK keep on keeping on? And how close are we to reaching that point?
Multiple tens of million of dead Koreans and a humanitarian disaster is a long way from better than the status quo.
But what if we can't keep the status quo. What if Un keeps upping the stakes. At what point do we act? And what form can that action take? Is there anything we can do short of all out war? If it comes to it, wouldn't a commitment to all out war be preferable to dancing around with limited tit for tat war?
Why should "we"--meaning the US--feel compelled to handle the problem, as opposed to China, Japan and South Korea? They're the ones far more likely to be hurt by Kim's antics--and also the ones far more likely to suffer the brunt of all-out war with NoKo.
Well for one thing, NK is a direct threat to the US right now. You want to wait until they concur SK and Japan before we deal with that?
Gentrification is undocumented immigration for the left-leaning. - Shem

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Fin Fang Foom
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Re: The Not-So- and All-Too-Real World of North Korea

Post by Fin Fang Foom » 29 Aug 2017, 17:47

Concur? If you mean conquer, they couldn't. They could just kill a lot of people.
". . . even the federalist folk are probably a bit wary, and they're essentially cosplaying the preacher from footloose." - dhex

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Re: The Not-So- and All-Too-Real World of North Korea

Post by Jennifer » 29 Aug 2017, 17:48

Warren wrote:
29 Aug 2017, 17:42
Jennifer wrote:
29 Aug 2017, 17:39
Warren wrote:
29 Aug 2017, 17:36
Mo wrote:
29 Aug 2017, 16:02
Warren wrote:
29 Aug 2017, 15:25
Okay, so Seoul takes it up the ass and some additional staggering but not overwhelming losses for Team US. NK goes into the ash heap of history and who knows what takes its place. At what point do we say that's better than letting NK keep on keeping on? And how close are we to reaching that point?
Multiple tens of million of dead Koreans and a humanitarian disaster is a long way from better than the status quo.
But what if we can't keep the status quo. What if Un keeps upping the stakes. At what point do we act? And what form can that action take? Is there anything we can do short of all out war? If it comes to it, wouldn't a commitment to all out war be preferable to dancing around with limited tit for tat war?
Why should "we"--meaning the US--feel compelled to handle the problem, as opposed to China, Japan and South Korea? They're the ones far more likely to be hurt by Kim's antics--and also the ones far more likely to suffer the brunt of all-out war with NoKo.
Well for one thing, NK is a direct threat to the US right now. You want to wait until they concur [sic] SK and Japan before we deal with that?
Are you arguing in favor of pre-emptive war with a country on the grounds that it might do harm to us? That's not far removed from the logic which led the US to ignore Saudi Arabia after 9/11, in lieu of invading Iraq. "Saddam is an imminent threat to us! Fear him! Booga booga booga!" But war with NoKo would be far worse -- at least our war with Iraq didn't result in millions of deaths in the next-door country allied with us, nor did it give China good and cogent reasons to be seriously pissed at us. War with NoKo would.
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Re: The Not-So- and All-Too-Real World of North Korea

Post by Warren » 29 Aug 2017, 18:35

Okay so we do nothing. Do we send NK grain and oil? What if they really want us to?
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Re: The Not-So- and All-Too-Real World of North Korea

Post by Jennifer » 29 Aug 2017, 18:43

Warren wrote:
29 Aug 2017, 18:35
Okay so we do nothing. Do we send NK grain and oil? What if they really want us to?
I wouldn't send them anything. Some years ago, I even suggested we stop sending "humanitarian" aid -- because whatever food we send them doesn't go to rank-and-file North Koreans, but to the military and government people keeping the rank-and-file under their thumb.

This is a problem for China, Japan and South Korea to solve. Our meddling will only make matters worse -- not even for us, but for the Chinese, Japanese and Koreans.
"Myself, despite what they say about libertarians, I think we're actually allowed to pursue options beyond futility or sucking the dicks of the powerful." -- Eric the .5b

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Re: The Not-So- and All-Too-Real World of North Korea

Post by Aresen » 29 Aug 2017, 18:56

Jennifer wrote:
29 Aug 2017, 18:43
Warren wrote:
29 Aug 2017, 18:35
Okay so we do nothing. Do we send NK grain and oil? What if they really want us to?
I wouldn't send them anything. Some years ago, I even suggested we stop sending "humanitarian" aid -- because whatever food we send them doesn't go to rank-and-file North Koreans, but to the military and government people keeping the rank-and-file under their thumb.

This is a problem for China, Japan and South Korea to solve. Our meddling will only make matters worse -- not even for us, but for the Chinese, Japanese and Koreans.
Even IF we could some how knock out the Kim Jong Un regime without a single casualty in South Korea, Japan, China or anyone else nearby, I would be opposed to a pre-emptive strike.

I see no reason to cause the deaths of tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands or even millions of North Koreans because their ruler is an unpredictable tyrant.

If the Kim Jong Un regime launches a clear attack (not 20 men floating ashore in South Korea from a patrol boat or firing on a US plane in disputed airspace), then it will be necessary to destroy it.

Until then, keep an eye on them and ignore the sabre-rattling.
If Trump supporters wanted a tough guy, why did they elect such a whiny bitch? - Mo

Those who know history are doomed to deja vu. - the innominate one

Most people don't realize Stephen King downplayed the horror that is Maine. - Jennifer

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Mo
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Re: The Not-So- and All-Too-Real World of North Korea

Post by Mo » 29 Aug 2017, 21:20

Aresen wrote:
29 Aug 2017, 18:56
Jennifer wrote:
29 Aug 2017, 18:43
Warren wrote:
29 Aug 2017, 18:35
Okay so we do nothing. Do we send NK grain and oil? What if they really want us to?
I wouldn't send them anything. Some years ago, I even suggested we stop sending "humanitarian" aid -- because whatever food we send them doesn't go to rank-and-file North Koreans, but to the military and government people keeping the rank-and-file under their thumb.

This is a problem for China, Japan and South Korea to solve. Our meddling will only make matters worse -- not even for us, but for the Chinese, Japanese and Koreans.
Even IF we could some how knock out the Kim Jong Un regime without a single casualty in South Korea, Japan, China or anyone else nearby, I would be opposed to a pre-emptive strike.

I see no reason to cause the deaths of tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands or even millions of North Koreans because their ruler is an unpredictable tyrant.

If the Kim Jong Un regime launches a clear attack (not 20 men floating ashore in South Korea from a patrol boat or firing on a US plane in disputed airspace), then it will be necessary to destroy it.

Until then, keep an eye on them and ignore the sabre-rattling.
This would bother me less so. Shit is fucking grim for the folks in there as is. If we could keep it at tens of thousands, we'd probably end up at par with what the regime already does.
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

no one ever yells worldstar when a pet gets fucked up - dhex

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Shem
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Re: The Not-So- and All-Too-Real World of North Korea

Post by Shem » 29 Aug 2017, 21:33

Aresen wrote:
29 Aug 2017, 15:45
I was under the impression that the nukes that North Korea presently has are not suitable for a missile.

TBS, if they actually launched and detonated a nuke into the North Pacific, the Chinese would probably be even more pissed than the US.
The event that precipitated the current crisis was the announcement by the DIA that North Korea is now capable of producing a nuke that can be mounted onto an ICBM. Whether they actually do have that capability, only Kim knows. Notably, the CIA didn't publicly follow suit with that assessment.
"VOTE SHEMOCRACY! You will only have to do it once!" -Loyalty Officer Aresen

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Re: The Not-So- and All-Too-Real World of North Korea

Post by Painboy » 29 Aug 2017, 22:33

The minute Kim gives the order to put a nuke on an ICBM, with the intention of launching at somebody, is the minute there's a coup. He may just have a bunch of cronies around him now but they're his cronies because they like living. There isn't a scenario that exists where they hit someone with a nuke and get out alive.

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Kolohe
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Re: The Not-So- and All-Too-Real World of North Korea

Post by Kolohe » 29 Aug 2017, 22:47

It's somewhat unclear which cronies are around him. His grandad's generation are now almost all dead, and he's done a couple of purges of the big wigs (big hats I suppose) of his dad's generation.
when you wake up as the queen of the n=1 kingdom and mount your steed non sequiturius, do you look out upon all you survey and think “damn, it feels good to be a green idea sleeping furiously?" - dhex

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