Observations of the Random sort

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Aresen
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Re: Observations of the Random sort

Post by Aresen »

Pham Nuwen wrote: 25 Oct 2020, 02:17 Man that mgmbets commercial just grinded my gears. I never actually watched the entire ad til a few minutes ago.

DO. NOT. PUT. SKIN. IN. THE. GAME.

DO. NOT. GO. WITH. YOUR GUT.

Like my god that was terrible advice from Jamie Fox. It's math guys. Math. I worked casinos for 10 years. It's just math. You're gut is usually wrong(you don't remember all the times you were wrong) and never gamble anything you aren't prepared to lose.

You may continue ignoring me now.
My attitude has always been 'This is money (and only this much) that I am going to spend gambling.'

I had always wanted to play roulette, so one time when I was in Vegas, I took 60 bucks to the roulette table. Gone in 12 spins. ($5/spin. I played 6 and 33, in case you were wondering.)
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Re: Observations of the Random sort

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A former coworker gambled as a hobby. He got shit from another coworker for "pissing his money away," until gambler noted that someone who buys season tickets to the Mariners doesn't have much room to talk about pissing money away.
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Re: Observations of the Random sort

Post by dead_elvis »

Aresen wrote: 25 Oct 2020, 11:10
Pham Nuwen wrote: 25 Oct 2020, 02:17 Man that mgmbets commercial just grinded my gears. I never actually watched the entire ad til a few minutes ago.

DO. NOT. PUT. SKIN. IN. THE. GAME.

DO. NOT. GO. WITH. YOUR GUT.

Like my god that was terrible advice from Jamie Fox. It's math guys. Math. I worked casinos for 10 years. It's just math. You're gut is usually wrong(you don't remember all the times you were wrong) and never gamble anything you aren't prepared to lose.

You may continue ignoring me now.
My attitude has always been 'This is money (and only this much) that I am going to spend gambling.'

I had always wanted to play roulette, so one time when I was in Vegas, I took 60 bucks to the roulette table. Gone in 12 spins. ($5/spin. I played 6 and 33, in case you were wondering.)
The one time I went to vegas and gambled I did pretty well at blackjack, came home and was excited about studying it more, the more of which I did the more I realized my strategy had been further outside the math than I had thought and thus obviously I had simply hit a lucky streak and shouldn't count on repeating that in the future without a huge amount of study and practice.
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Re: Observations of the Random sort

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When I first got to Connecticut and hadn't had time to make friends yet, I would occasionally go to the Indian casino with a $10 roll of quarters to play the 25-cent video poker machine, and play until either I ran out of quarters or got bored. Good way to kill a couple hours. Once I got some pre-1965 silver quarters in my winnings; naturally, those went into my front jeans pocket rather than back into the machine.

The last time I went to that casino was when Jeff and I intended to see a concert; we got there early to people-watch and I brought another $10 roll, but discovered the casino had new machines that only took electronic payments rather than actual coins. Which meant there was no possibility of me getting more silver quarters, so I didn't bother playing after all.
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Re: Observations of the Random sort

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Increasingly, the gambling industry is calving icebergs for my libertarian laissez faire ideological ship.

ETA - true confession - I though for the first few months seeing the url that onlyfans was a fantasy sports site that was trying to make a niche for itself by downplaying the straight up cutthroat gambling aspects of almost all current sports sites. (I am glad I no longer have a work computer, per se)
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Re: Observations of the Random sort

Post by JD »

Video poker is one of the few casino games where the player can have reasonable odds - in rare cases, the player even has an edge. But playing successfully requires knowing the game and the pay table, knowing the correct play for every possible hand, and executing consistently. Most people don't do that, which is why the casino can still make money at it. (I mean, cocktails aside.)
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Re: Observations of the Random sort

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JD wrote: 26 Oct 2020, 10:06 Video poker is one of the few casino games where the player can have reasonable odds - in rare cases, the player even has an edge. But playing successfully requires knowing the game and the pay table, knowing the correct play for every possible hand, and executing consistently. Most people don't do that, which is why the casino can still make money at it. (I mean, cocktails aside.)
Are drinks no longer free if you’re gambling? I always have driven to the Maryland casinos so I haven’t had a drink in a casino in maybe over a decade?
when you wake up as the queen of the n=1 kingdom and mount your steed non sequiturius, do you look out upon all you survey and think “damn, it feels good to be a green idea sleeping furiously?" - dhex
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Re: Observations of the Random sort

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JD wrote: 26 Oct 2020, 10:06 Video poker is one of the few casino games where the player can have reasonable odds - in rare cases, the player even has an edge. But playing successfully requires knowing the game and the pay table, knowing the correct play for every possible hand, and executing consistently. Most people don't do that, which is why the casino can still make money at it. (I mean, cocktails aside.)
Color me skeptical. There are still enough card counters in the world to have their own online community. They're up against a gaming industry that is willing to cross lines of assault and police corruption. If Video Poker had that weakness, they would descend upon the machines from coast to coast and drain the coffers overnight.
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Re: Observations of the Random sort

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The times video poker payout has a positive probabilistic expected value are when jackpot multipliers are involved, which themselves are somewhat arbitrary and also depend on the player betting max money on every round.

It’s like how sometimes the state lotto jackpot can theoretically result in positive expected value, but there’s no practical way to take advantage of that due to the design of the game.
when you wake up as the queen of the n=1 kingdom and mount your steed non sequiturius, do you look out upon all you survey and think “damn, it feels good to be a green idea sleeping furiously?" - dhex
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Re: Observations of the Random sort

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Kolohe wrote: 26 Oct 2020, 11:11 The times video poker payout has a positive probabilistic expected value are when jackpot multipliers are involved, which themselves are somewhat arbitrary and also depend on the player betting max money on every round.

It’s like how sometimes the state lotto jackpot can theoretically result in positive expected value, but there’s no practical way to take advantage of that due to the design of the game.
I can buy that. You can't beat the machine with perfect play because perfect play requires unlimited resources for unlimited time.
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Re: Observations of the Random sort

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Kolohe wrote: 26 Oct 2020, 11:11 The times video poker payout has a positive probabilistic expected value are when jackpot multipliers are involved, which themselves are somewhat arbitrary and also depend on the player betting max money on every round.

It’s like how sometimes the state lotto jackpot can theoretically result in positive expected value, but there’s no practical way to take advantage of that due to the design of the game.
Of course, sometimes people have found practical ways to take advantage of that, like the MIT lottery ring.
Warren wrote: 26 Oct 2020, 11:15
Kolohe wrote: 26 Oct 2020, 11:11 The times video poker payout has a positive probabilistic expected value are when jackpot multipliers are involved, which themselves are somewhat arbitrary and also depend on the player betting max money on every round.

It’s like how sometimes the state lotto jackpot can theoretically result in positive expected value, but there’s no practical way to take advantage of that due to the design of the game.
I can buy that. You can't beat the machine with perfect play because perfect play requires unlimited resources for unlimited time.
Yeah, you shouldn't actually pay a million dollars to play the St Petersburg lottery.
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Re: Observations of the Random sort

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Jadagul wrote: 26 Oct 2020, 13:01 Of course, sometimes people have found practical ways to take advantage of that, like the MIT lottery ring.
The what now?
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Re: Observations of the Random sort

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The MIT lottery ring. Jordan Ellenberg wrote it up in his book and I saw him give a fun talk on it.

See also this article on a retired factory worker breaking the same lottery—basically the same story with a different narrative perspective.
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JD
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Re: Observations of the Random sort

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Warren wrote: 26 Oct 2020, 11:15
Kolohe wrote: 26 Oct 2020, 11:11 The times video poker payout has a positive probabilistic expected value are when jackpot multipliers are involved, which themselves are somewhat arbitrary and also depend on the player betting max money on every round.

It’s like how sometimes the state lotto jackpot can theoretically result in positive expected value, but there’s no practical way to take advantage of that due to the design of the game.
I can buy that. You can't beat the machine with perfect play because perfect play requires unlimited resources for unlimited time.
Yeah, that's basically it: it requires knowing the appropriate pay table (there are plenty of machines that have less-than-even or frankly terrible pay tables, often right next to good ones, named the same thing), it requires consistently perfect play (even a small mistake may put you under), and because there are maximum bet amounts and you can only play so many hands so fast, even if you did play perfectly on a machine with the best possible pay table, you'd probably still make something like $8/hour. On top of that, the very slight edge means that you could still reasonably expect to have a long run of back luck, which might bust you or at the very least make your time to profitability unreasonably long.
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Re: Observations of the Random sort

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JD wrote: 26 Oct 2020, 13:25
Warren wrote: 26 Oct 2020, 11:15
Kolohe wrote: 26 Oct 2020, 11:11 The times video poker payout has a positive probabilistic expected value are when jackpot multipliers are involved, which themselves are somewhat arbitrary and also depend on the player betting max money on every round.

It’s like how sometimes the state lotto jackpot can theoretically result in positive expected value, but there’s no practical way to take advantage of that due to the design of the game.
I can buy that. You can't beat the machine with perfect play because perfect play requires unlimited resources for unlimited time.
Yeah, that's basically it: it requires knowing the appropriate pay table (there are plenty of machines that have less-than-even or frankly terrible pay tables, often right next to good ones, named the same thing), it requires consistently perfect play (even a small mistake may put you under), and because there are maximum bet amounts and you can only play so many hands so fast, even if you did play perfectly on a machine with the best possible pay table, you'd probably still make something like $8/hour. On top of that, the very slight edge means that you could still reasonably expect to have a long run of back luck, which might bust you or at the very least make your time to profitability unreasonably long.
Well that's a different thing but yeah. But yeah, I can see how even if you can get the odds in your favor, the edge is too slim and bets too small to make it worth your time.
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Re: Observations of the Random sort

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Warren wrote: 26 Oct 2020, 13:58
JD wrote: 26 Oct 2020, 13:25
Warren wrote: 26 Oct 2020, 11:15
Kolohe wrote: 26 Oct 2020, 11:11 The times video poker payout has a positive probabilistic expected value are when jackpot multipliers are involved, which themselves are somewhat arbitrary and also depend on the player betting max money on every round.

It’s like how sometimes the state lotto jackpot can theoretically result in positive expected value, but there’s no practical way to take advantage of that due to the design of the game.
I can buy that. You can't beat the machine with perfect play because perfect play requires unlimited resources for unlimited time.
Yeah, that's basically it: it requires knowing the appropriate pay table (there are plenty of machines that have less-than-even or frankly terrible pay tables, often right next to good ones, named the same thing), it requires consistently perfect play (even a small mistake may put you under), and because there are maximum bet amounts and you can only play so many hands so fast, even if you did play perfectly on a machine with the best possible pay table, you'd probably still make something like $8/hour. On top of that, the very slight edge means that you could still reasonably expect to have a long run of back luck, which might bust you or at the very least make your time to profitability unreasonably long.
Well that's a different thing but yeah. But yeah, I can see how even if you can get the odds in your favor, the edge is too slim and bets too small to make it worth your time.
Some people like playing the machines. For them, knowing that a machine on a 3-6-9 payoff schedule is positive (albeit barely) while one on a 3-5-8 isn't, is useful information.
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Re: Observations of the Random sort

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I am darkly amused by the conflation of some kind of structural "anti catholic" American way of life regarding the Barrett nom and political criticism. But I'm genuinely incensed at the idea that an American anti catholic sentiment exists. Actual anticatholicism would involve the mass incarceration and Rico usage against the church. Which should have happened mind you because it is a massive criminal enterprise on a scale that is horrifying. Bernie law should have died in jail rather than a nice bed in Rome.
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Re: Observations of the Random sort

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dhex wrote: 27 Oct 2020, 14:42 I am darkly amused by the conflation of some kind of structural "anti catholic" American way of life regarding the Barrett nom and political criticism. But I'm genuinely incensed at the idea that an American anti catholic sentiment exists. Actual anticatholicism would involve the mass incarceration and Rico usage against the church. Which should have happened mind you because it is a massive criminal enterprise on a scale that is horrifying. Bernie law should have died in jail rather than a nice bed in Rome.
I also found the 'anti-catholic' smear amusing, since many GOP Senators have ties to fundamentalist christian groups that regard Roman Catholics with deep suspicion.
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Re: Observations of the Random sort

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Aresen wrote: 27 Oct 2020, 14:53
dhex wrote: 27 Oct 2020, 14:42 I am darkly amused by the conflation of some kind of structural "anti catholic" American way of life regarding the Barrett nom and political criticism. But I'm genuinely incensed at the idea that an American anti catholic sentiment exists. Actual anticatholicism would involve the mass incarceration and Rico usage against the church. Which should have happened mind you because it is a massive criminal enterprise on a scale that is horrifying. Bernie law should have died in jail rather than a nice bed in Rome.
I also found the 'anti-catholic' smear amusing, since many GOP Senators have ties to fundamentalist christian groups that regard Roman Catholics with deep suspicion.
It has been a strange 50 years that I've been alive, that Catholics used to be those-wacky-cult-of-mary-internationalist-gazillionaires and yet after the pedophile scandals the alliance between them has only grown. Fear of the secular world and the need for allies against it trumps even basic human decency.
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Re: Observations of the Random sort

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American Catholics are a weird bunch, socially and politically. Some have gone pretty hard-core SoCon, and have provided a lot of the intellectual firepower for SoCon legal groups (hence the number of Catholics on SCOTUS). Some are pretty liberal on social issues, and are also disengaged from the politics of the church. They show up to Mass many Sundays, put their kids in CCD and volunteer for a few events, but don't fight any political battles within the parish. This makes it easier for conservative evangelicals and Catholics to work together, because the evangelicals don't have to worry that they'll get any librul heresy on them when they mix with the filthy papists.

And then there's a shitload of Hispanics and other people of color, who could easily go Red SoCon were it not for the xenophobia. But they are also mostly disengaged from the religious and political circles that groom affluent Catholic kids to go to Yale Law and train to overturn Roe vs. Wade.

So it's not really an alliance of Catholics and evangelicals. It's an alliance of evangelicals with Catholic Prep School kids training to go to Yale Law and work to overturn abortion.

This alliance will last as long as abortion is an issue in play. If Roe were seen as either impossible to overturn or impossible to restore, they'd surely find a reason to dislike each other.
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Re: Observations of the Random sort

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My view of Catholicism is a bit skewed, as I was not raised Catholic, but went to a Jesuit high school and a Jesuit university. I did RCIA under the Jebbies. The religiousness didn’t really stick, but I do have an abiding respect for the SJs.
That being said, when I got out of college, I was a bit taken aback by the regular Catholic world, some of which takes things like dogma really, really seriously. That was disappointing.
I have no real point here except to second Thoreau’s observation that one should be careful about making blanket assumptions about the beliefs or political tendencies of Catholics.
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Re: Observations of the Random sort

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I just assume they are going to be pissed off in 30 years when Roe vs Wade is reestablished since their numbers have plummeted to the level of mere steel workers unions. I understand that's probably not going to happen.
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Re: Observations of the Random sort

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Jadagul wrote: 26 Oct 2020, 13:25 The MIT lottery ring. Jordan Ellenberg wrote it up in his book and I saw him give a fun talk on it.

See also this article on a retired factory worker breaking the same lottery—basically the same story with a different narrative perspective.
I didn’t know anyone was able to take advantage that late. I thought most of the schemes had dried up in the first few years of the 2000s as lotteries inhibited ( but did not entirely prohibit) bulk purchases of tickeTVs

(Plus, as the article notes, high participation may turn your mathematical positive odds negative, as there is then a higher chance of a split payout. Which is I think the main reason lottery consortiums aren’t a thing anymore despite payouts breaking records a couple of years ago))
when you wake up as the queen of the n=1 kingdom and mount your steed non sequiturius, do you look out upon all you survey and think “damn, it feels good to be a green idea sleeping furiously?" - dhex
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Re: Observations of the Random sort

Post by JD »

IMO, when you look at those lottery-ring stories, the lotteries themselves are really the only ones to blame. It wouldn't be that hard to set up a lottery that was simple enough that there would be few or no edge cases where expected return is positive, but lotteries always seem to want to attract people with gimmicks, and that's when they run into trouble.
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Re: Observations of the Random sort

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JD wrote: 28 Oct 2020, 10:59 IMO, when you look at those lottery-ring stories, the lotteries themselves are really the only ones to blame. It wouldn't be that hard to set up a lottery that was simple enough that there would be few or no edge cases where expected return is positive, but lotteries always seem to want to attract people with gimmicks, and that's when they run into trouble.
Well, also, all this gaming was good for the lotteries. The lotteries had roughly a fixed loss per ticket sold; it was great for them that all these people were gaming them by buying tickets in bulk.

The people who were losing out were the normal people playing the lottery on weeks that didn't have rollover prizes.
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