Observations of the Random sort

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thoreau
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Re: Observations of the Random sort

Post by thoreau » 08 Jan 2018, 14:59

JasonL wrote:
08 Jan 2018, 14:54
I mean, maybe?

They used to say that every Senator looks in the mirror and sees a Presidential candidate. Now I think that every CEO with a Twitter account and media following looks in the mirror and sees a Presidential candidate.

Oprah, Donaldik Fredovich, the T-Mobile guy, presumably Bloomberg, Zuckerberg...
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Re: Observations of the Random sort

Post by pistoffnick » 08 Jan 2018, 16:37

I always thought GoPros were overpriced. Maybe I am not wrong?
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Warren
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Re: Observations of the Random sort

Post by Warren » 10 Jan 2018, 10:46

pistoffnick wrote:
08 Jan 2018, 16:37
I always thought GoPros were overpriced. Maybe I am not wrong?
Depends on what you want to do with them. GoPros are pretty robust. If you want to put a camera on a drone or wear one while you do something athletic, go GoPro. If you want to hold it in your hand or mount it on something stationary, there are cheaper options.
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Aresen
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Re: Observations of the Random sort

Post by Aresen » 10 Jan 2018, 23:51

To me, the stock market hype right now feels much like January 2000 and November 2007. Everybody seems to be predicting that the market will continue to make huge gains.

Maybe they are right. But my gut says 'bubble.'
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Painboy
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Re: Observations of the Random sort

Post by Painboy » 11 Jan 2018, 01:06

Aresen wrote:
10 Jan 2018, 23:51
To me, the stock market hype right now feels much like January 2000 and November 2007. Everybody seems to be predicting that the market will continue to make huge gains.

Maybe they are right. But my gut says 'bubble.'
Really? It seems to me everyone is saying it's all just a bubble. Those jumping in seem to be doing it only until they see things start going south before they jump back out.

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Sandy
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Observations of the Random sort

Post by Sandy » 11 Jan 2018, 01:56

I don’t know what the bubble would be of. There were pretty obvious signs of mania around a sector of the economy each time before. I don’t doubt we’re in for a correction or even a recession, but I don’t see a huge asset price bubble like ‘00 or ‘07/08.
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Mo
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Re: Observations of the Random sort

Post by Mo » 11 Jan 2018, 09:25

Painboy wrote:
11 Jan 2018, 01:06
Aresen wrote:
10 Jan 2018, 23:51
To me, the stock market hype right now feels much like January 2000 and November 2007. Everybody seems to be predicting that the market will continue to make huge gains.

Maybe they are right. But my gut says 'bubble.'
Really? It seems to me everyone is saying it's all just a bubble. Those jumping in seem to be doing it only until they see things start going south before they jump back out.
The pros aren't saying that. Even bears are talking about significant jumps up in asset prices.
Jeremy Grantham, a bearish investor at Boston money managers Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo & Co. with a history of spotting market tops, said last week that investors ought to brace for explosive short-term stock gains.

He dubbed this phase a “melt-up,” or climactic late-rally leg higher that might push prices up an additional 50% over the next six months to two years.
Sandy wrote:
11 Jan 2018, 01:56
I don’t know what the bubble would be of. There were pretty obvious signs of mania around a sector of the economy each time before. I don’t doubt we’re in for a correction or even a recession, but I don’t see a huge asset price bubble like ‘00 or ‘07/08.
P/E ratios are at danger zone levels (TTM at 24). Aside from post recession PE spikes, we haven't had an S&P 500 PE ratio this high since the late 90s. The CAPE P/E is sitting at 33. Also, there's nearly a trillion dollars sitting in crypto currencies and there's quite a bit of money washing around in tech. Crypto and tech are pretty closely linked, so those could have domino effects on each other.
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JasonL
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Re: Observations of the Random sort

Post by JasonL » 11 Jan 2018, 10:01

P/E makes me nervous this is not advice.

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Re: Observations of the Random sort

Post by Shem » 11 Jan 2018, 10:17

I'm nervous because there's nothing fundamental that should be driving this degree of growth speed. We're not recovering from a recession, nor is there anything specific happening that should be causing this. Any time that comes up, I start to think irrational exuberance.
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Re: Observations of the Random sort

Post by Sandy » 11 Jan 2018, 11:06

Previously, a cab driver has given me investment advice before each crash. I haven't gotten that this time. So maybe the truly stupid money is not yet in.
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Mo
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Re: Observations of the Random sort

Post by Mo » 11 Jan 2018, 11:08

Not even for bitcoin?
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

no one ever yells worldstar when a pet gets fucked up - dhex

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Re: Observations of the Random sort

Post by Andrew » 11 Jan 2018, 11:14

I don't know about other places, but housing has been absurd in Phoenix for the last 2 years. While not to 2006 levels (the far-flung suburbs are still miles underwater), there is an awful lot of "new countertops flip for an extra $50k" nonsense again.
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Re: Observations of the Random sort

Post by Sandy » 11 Jan 2018, 12:54

Mo wrote:
11 Jan 2018, 11:08
Not even for bitcoin?
Nope. A bunch of ex-tech people, but no crypto-anything.
Hindu is the cricket of religions. You can observe it for years, you can have enthusiasts try to explain it to you, and it's still baffling. - Warren

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Sandy
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Re: Observations of the Random sort

Post by Sandy » 11 Jan 2018, 12:56

Is it me, or does Project Veritas's latest "revelations" seem like really weak sauce? "Yeah, we're trying to keep shitty people off the platform." The interlocutor seems to be the only one harping about conservatives, not the Twitter employees.

I don't doubt they have a more-than-Google-level bias, but so far I have seen zero really damaging come out of this.
Hindu is the cricket of religions. You can observe it for years, you can have enthusiasts try to explain it to you, and it's still baffling. - Warren

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Mo
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Re: Observations of the Random sort

Post by Mo » 11 Jan 2018, 13:26

A goo article on the rise and fall of the Do Not Call List. If Donald Trump fixes robocalls on your cell phone, he will be reelected.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyl ... story.html
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

no one ever yells worldstar when a pet gets fucked up - dhex

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Aresen
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Re: Observations of the Random sort

Post by Aresen » 11 Jan 2018, 14:02

Mo wrote:
11 Jan 2018, 13:26
A goo article on the rise and fall of the Do Not Call List. If Donald Trump fixes robocalls on your cell phone, he will be reelected.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyl ... story.html
My thoughts on what I would like to do to anyone running a robocall operation would horrify ISIS.
If Trump supporters wanted a tough guy, why did they elect such a whiny bitch? - Mo

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dead_elvis
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Re: Observations of the Random sort

Post by dead_elvis » 11 Jan 2018, 14:25

Mo wrote:
11 Jan 2018, 13:26
A goo article on the rise and fall of the Do Not Call List. If Donald Trump fixes robocalls on your cell phone, he will be reelected.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyl ... story.html
I basically get one per day, which is annoying but it's usually obvious enough for me to safely ignore. Just this morning the call was from Llano, CA, and after finding it on a map quickly I knew that there was 0% chance of it being legit. In the plus column though it did however educate me, in that through the googling I learned about the Llano del Rio socialist colony that was attempted there around 1913-18 or so.
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Sandy
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Re: Observations of the Random sort

Post by Sandy » 11 Jan 2018, 15:28

Supposedly you're not allowed to block calls that appear to be from your own exchange. This seems like an FTC problem, not a technology problem.
Hindu is the cricket of religions. You can observe it for years, you can have enthusiasts try to explain it to you, and it's still baffling. - Warren

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Mo
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Re: Observations of the Random sort

Post by Mo » 11 Jan 2018, 15:31

Sandy wrote:
11 Jan 2018, 15:28
Supposedly you're not allowed to block calls that appear to be from your own exchange. This seems like an FTC problem, not a technology problem.
The big problem is that there's no system currently in place to tell what is legit phone number spoofing (e.g. a corporation making every outgoing call appear to come from the main line) and what are spammers spoofing numbers.
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

no one ever yells worldstar when a pet gets fucked up - dhex

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Jadagul
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Re: Observations of the Random sort

Post by Jadagul » 11 Jan 2018, 16:10

There are apps that do a lookup on the number and block it if it's a probable-scam. I use HiYa, which seems to work okay.

I would be less annoyed with scam calls if fewer of them came when I was asleep.

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nicole
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Re: Observations of the Random sort

Post by nicole » 11 Jan 2018, 17:30

Mobile is still nowhere near as bad as landlines for this stuff though

Yes I have a landline don’t @ me
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Re: Observations of the Random sort

Post by nicole » 12 Jan 2018, 09:58

I fucking hate when Americans write "whinging"
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Dangerman
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Re: Observations of the Random sort

Post by Dangerman » 12 Jan 2018, 10:32

Re: robocalls

I've been getting so many that I now leave my voicemail full (so no more can be added) and my outgoing message says 'I no longer receive voicemail at this number, it is not monitored and messages will not be returned. Please send an SMS or email if you need to contact me.'

I'm on the do not call list, I file complaints after each call with the number, time and date. My next action will be a complaint to the NH AG because all of these calls are being routed through a Verizon center in NH, and VZN won't respond to my complaints.

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Sandy
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Re: Observations of the Random sort

Post by Sandy » 12 Jan 2018, 11:00

Nomorobo has made my phone usable again. I just wish they were allowed to block numbers spoofed to look like they're on the same exchange as you.
Hindu is the cricket of religions. You can observe it for years, you can have enthusiasts try to explain it to you, and it's still baffling. - Warren

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pistoffnick
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Re: Observations of the Random sort

Post by pistoffnick » 12 Jan 2018, 11:02

nicole wrote:
12 Jan 2018, 09:58
I fucking hate when Americans write "whinging"
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