Observations of the Random sort

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Mo
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Re: Observations of the Random sort

Post by Mo »

Pham Nuwen wrote:
13 Jan 2020, 02:01
I mean I just dont understand the top down approach on climate change. They know all the major polluters and they know they will weasel out. There is a large incentive for cheating. It feels like a waste of time. I think we should be figuring out how to live with a changing environment not trying for some mystical one with nature outlook. And I view it as nothing more than an outlook.
If you mean big polluting countries, that's actually pretty easily solved. You do a domestic carbon tax and then on imports, you tax based on sectoral carbon emissions from the country. I've said this before, but some of the reflexive hate of regulation is that American regulation is bad (well bad for consumers*) regulation and far too many layers of regulation. A lot of the bank regulations here are actually quite good. Like there are regulations that make it really easy to change banks. IMO, that regulation enhances capitalism because it means a bank has to rely on more than friction to keep customers. However, that regulation can go down the path of ridiculous.

Also, seems weird that Cowen would fault Wilkinson for aligning with Warren, but doesn't have any similar critique for Thiel for aligning with Trump, who also spends a lot of energy tearing down American business.

* It's basically regulatory capture
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JasonL
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Re: Observations of the Random sort

Post by JasonL »

The article does kind of make me want to lay out my overall model for thinking about markets and government in 2019.

- The starting premise for me is "The Most Important Chart in the World" - that one that shows global gdp per capita being basically nothing until it takes off during the industrial revolution. I think the high level implications of that chart should be relatively uncontroversial. Capitalism defined as private property, market exchange with floating prices, and an ability to obtain returns on investments that work out - that is why everyone isn't poor and eating dirt. Markets are extremely powerful and we poo on them at our peril.

- The long run rate of growth is, after recognition of a set of rights that roughly correspond to the negative rights of libertarianism, the most important moral fact in the world. People attacking growth are attacking human wellbeing and the more significantly they do that the worse they are as people - they own considerable suffering by way of policies they advocate.

- I have no interest, none, in inequality of material wealth per se. I care about opportunity and mitigating poverty quite a bit. I think it entirely moral and appropriate to employ redistributive measures to ensure a base living standard. My view of base level is quite low relative to how other modern nations approach that question because I'm very concerned about the second point above. Related, I think equality of opportunity is not exactly the goal. That's not really a thing in a society with some people being born with more resources by many multiples. Not equality of opportunity, but a base line of opportunity. Schools should be better. Extra resources should be available to kids who have to overcome other features of their background, but that is not the same as saying school should be free or teachers should be paid more or everyone gets chromebooks or whatever, and you can't measure this by relative rates of success by demographics. Are kids who themselves are studious constrained by a low supply of quality educational opportunity? That's a thing we can attack. Are people struggling to feed themselves? Thats a thing we can attack. Do people without money wind up in comparable situations to people who do have money? That's probably not realistic as a goal and attempts to make that happen are going to be highly distortionary.

- Broadly, social welfare should be seen as a sliding scale. If you are unemployed you get enough for a basic pretty unpleasant life. If you are working you get sliding supplements like EITC designed to get you to a level above basic unpleasant life. Welfare should be a backstop against poverty not a universal "this is how everyone gets stuff" model.

- Things behave differently at different margins. "Distorting markets" is not a binary thing. Pretty much nothing is a binary thing. You may or may not notice the effects of a minimum wage set a small amount above prevailing wages. You almost certainly will notice effects at a minimum wage multiples of prevailing wages. I don't think traditional modes of libertarian thinking reasonably address this, preferring universal prohibitions based on negatives of distortions and perceived rights violations. If I'm evaluating a thing, I'm evaluating it at some margin of cost, effect and scale. Related, the way things are right now isn't Freedom (tm) and some policy change Tyranny (tm) or socialism or communism or whatever. Specific ideas have specific effects on growth, rights, etc. and I think for example the Republican view that healthcare was a market before ACA is a quite stupid take. Very often we are choosing among flavors of distortion and margins at which those distortions operate.

- Carbon is the largest uncaptured externality in the world and we should be taxing it. Any kind of tax involves some level of distortion and some level of deterrence to raise some level of funds. Taxing that thing would be a boon to society. The public case for funding basic research is quite strong. The public case of subsidy of nuclear is also quite strong. The case for solar is not very strong at all because it just doesn't produce much useful energy.

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Mo
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Re: Observations of the Random sort

Post by Mo »

JasonL wrote:
13 Jan 2020, 09:07
The starting premise for me is "The Most Important Chart in the World" - that one that shows global gdp per capita being basically nothing until it takes off during the industrial revolution. I think the high level implications of that chart should be relatively uncontroversial. Capitalism defined as private property, market exchange with floating prices, and an ability to obtain returns on investments that work out - that is why everyone isn't poor and eating dirt. Markets are extremely powerful and we poo on them at our peril.
Doesn't it say more about industrialization? I'm sure you could get a similarly shaped chart even had we stuck with mercantilism and we had centuries of mercantilism without that massive jump in growth.
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

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JasonL
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Re: Observations of the Random sort

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I'm not at all sure it would be the same chart with the same duration and slope of upward trajectory. You can see country by country rates of growth and ... it's pretty apparent that commie life is not good for this feature. It's pretty apparent you don't just get one time bump in industrialization phase then level off in rate if you continue trading and letting capital do it's thing. The more you look at it, I really don't think this is controversial.

https://ourworldindata.org/economic-growth

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Shem
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Re: Observations of the Random sort

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JasonL wrote:
13 Jan 2020, 09:36
I'm not at all sure it would be the same chart with the same duration and slope of upward trajectory. You can see country by country rates of growth and ... it's pretty apparent that commie life is not good for this feature. It's pretty apparent you don't just get one time bump in industrialization phase then level off in rate if you continue trading and letting capital do it's thing. The more you look at it, I really don't think this is controversial.

https://ourworldindata.org/economic-growth
But every country that's been successful in doing that has gone though a mercantilist phase on their way to industrialization. Spend a decade or two building internal capacity with a protection scaffolding, and you get South Korea. Don't, and you wind up with Bangladesh. Or, if you want a less broadly applicable example, China's careful control of market liberalization versus Russia's fast action. The lesson is that trade is inevitable, but markets are not, and markets are actually a lot more fragile for it.
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Shem
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Re: Observations of the Random sort

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Pham Nuwen wrote:
13 Jan 2020, 02:01
I think we should be figuring out how to live with a changing environment not trying for some mystical one with nature outlook.
"Living with a changing environment" means huge chunks of the tropics becoming uninhabitable for at least a portion of most years. Which in turn means millions of refugees. It also means loss of cropland, and the ability to produce food. Ultimately, it means a lot of people are going to die on the way to a technological equilibrium that may never actually come. All because people gave up on making changes, even though we have examples of bringing about massive changes to do things like protect the ozone.
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JasonL
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Re: Observations of the Random sort

Post by JasonL »

Shem wrote:
13 Jan 2020, 11:12
JasonL wrote:
13 Jan 2020, 09:36
I'm not at all sure it would be the same chart with the same duration and slope of upward trajectory. You can see country by country rates of growth and ... it's pretty apparent that commie life is not good for this feature. It's pretty apparent you don't just get one time bump in industrialization phase then level off in rate if you continue trading and letting capital do it's thing. The more you look at it, I really don't think this is controversial.

https://ourworldindata.org/economic-growth
But every country that's been successful in doing that has gone though a mercantilist phase on their way to industrialization. Spend a decade or two building internal capacity with a protection scaffolding, and you get South Korea. Don't, and you wind up with Bangladesh. Or, if you want a less broadly applicable example, China's careful control of market liberalization versus Russia's fast action. The lesson is that trade is inevitable, but markets are not, and markets are actually a lot more fragile for it.
There's a lot to argue about there including how the mercantilist critique interacts with the model I'm suggesting. Trade barriers operating at some levels in some conditions fall under the category of things you evaluate at margins. I didn't stipulate global free trade as a precondition, but rather core elements of property, ability to profit from private investment, and market exchange with floating prices. How much friction is in there we can talk about, but price fixing would be an example of a more direct attack on the mechanism I'm talking about. I'll go about 40% of the way down the path you would suggest based on previous interactions on this. China had HK. Other partners had the US as a market of demand kept relatively open. What happens if everyone does development protectionism at the same time? Nothing good.

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JD
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Re: Observations of the Random sort

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The Burj Khalifa is so tall that sunset is several minutes later on the higher floors than it is at ground level. This has caused clerics to recommend that people living on higher floors wait several extra minutes before breaking their fast on Ramadan. (Also, suck on that, flat earthers.)
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Eric the .5b
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Re: Observations of the Random sort

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JD wrote:
14 Jan 2020, 14:00
The Burj Khalifa is so tall that sunset is several minutes later on the higher floors than it is at ground level. This has caused clerics to recommend that people living on higher floors wait several extra minutes before breaking their fast on Ramadan. (Also, suck on that, flat earthers.)
They'll just say that's globalist moos-lem propaganda.
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Re: Observations of the Random sort

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There's maybe only a dozen subreddits I subscribe to, but of those, I can't tell who posts more pictures, r/guns or r/breaddit. Folks really like to show off their bangers and baguettes.
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nicole
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Re: Observations of the Random sort

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"Fucking qualia." -Hugh Akston

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Hugh Akston
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Re: Observations of the Random sort

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Is GG in Brasil currently?
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Aresen
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Re: Observations of the Random sort

Post by Aresen »

Jasper wrote:
17 Jan 2020, 16:08
There's maybe only a dozen subreddits I subscribe to, but of those, I can't tell who posts more pictures, r/guns or r/breaddit. Folks really like to show off their bangers and baguettes.
Here's some intersectionality:

Image
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nicole
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Re: Observations of the Random sort

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Hugh Akston wrote:
21 Jan 2020, 11:27
Is GG in Brasil currently?
He lives there, I couldn't say definitively that he's there right this minute. But I haven't heard otherwise.
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"Sliced bagels aren't why trump won; it's why it doesn't matter who wins." -dhex

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nicole
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Re: Observations of the Random sort

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GG has commented to the Daily Beast https://www.thedailybeast.com/glenn-gre ... ilence-him
"Fucking qualia." -Hugh Akston

"Sliced bagels aren't why trump won; it's why it doesn't matter who wins." -dhex

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lunchstealer
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Re: Observations of the Random sort

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It's not at all impossible that he might've had associates who fucked around with that sort of thing and it's not impossible that he willfully turned a blind eye. Don't get the impression that he'd intentionally/actively participate, but I don't find it completely implausible that he'd accept the fruits of such shenanigans.

That said, Bolsonaro would totally pull this kind of bullshit. Like it's almost implausible that he wouldn't.

I'd say 3-1 odds it's completely manufactured, 2-9 odds that he had associates who did it and Bolsonaro's using that to squash an annoying bug, and 1-9 or less that he actively participated.
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Jasper
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Re: Observations of the Random sort

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Aresen wrote:
21 Jan 2020, 11:28
Jasper wrote:
17 Jan 2020, 16:08
There's maybe only a dozen subreddits I subscribe to, but of those, I can't tell who posts more pictures, r/guns or r/breaddit. Folks really like to show off their bangers and baguettes.
Here's some intersectionality:

Image
Bullets and boules.
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Kolohe
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Re: Observations of the Random sort

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nicole wrote:
21 Jan 2020, 12:06
GG has commented to the Daily Beast https://www.thedailybeast.com/glenn-gre ... ilence-him
Huh. So that's where Lloyd Grove is now. (He was the gossip reporter at the WaPo when I was a teenager)
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JD
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Re: Observations of the Random sort

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Mamie van Doren is still alive and well. She's one of those people who I just sort of thought had died a while back, for no particular reason.
I sort of feel like a sucker about aspiring to be intellectually rigorous when I could just go on twitter and say capitalism causes space herpes and no one will challenge me on it. - Hugh Akston

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Hugh Akston
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Re: Observations of the Random sort

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Just scoped a dude wearing a Bear Stearns IT Ski Weekend 2006 backpack. The 2007 version is probably the real collectors item.
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JasonL
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Re: Observations of the Random sort

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LOL

ETA: It was all downhill.

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nicole
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Re: Observations of the Random sort

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hahaha
"Fucking qualia." -Hugh Akston

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Hugh Akston
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Re: Observations of the Random sort

Post by Hugh Akston »

Solid
"Is a Lulztopia the best we can hope for?!?" ~Taktix®
"Somali pirates are beholden to their hostages in a way that the USG is not." ~Dangerman

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