msinaisuhtlaM

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Aresen
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Re: msinaisuhtlaM

Post by Aresen » 06 Feb 2019, 18:13

The economist did a projection a few years back based on the assumption that the fertility rates in the OECD countries became prevalent worldwide over the next 50 years. IIRC, they figured humanity goes extinct around 4500 CE when the last Chinese dies.

(I believe this is the article, but it's paywalled.)
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Painboy
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Re: msinaisuhtlaM

Post by Painboy » 06 Feb 2019, 20:03

This makes me think that as some point in the future governments are going to start paying their people to have babies. Without population growth the welfare state isn't sustainable. Where else are old people going to get their social security and Medicare if there is no future generation to rob.

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Re: msinaisuhtlaM

Post by Hugh Akston » 06 Feb 2019, 22:57

When you realize that more educated women = fewer babies, the entire conservative agenda comes into sharp focus.
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Re: msinaisuhtlaM

Post by JasonL » 06 Feb 2019, 23:28

There’s a book.


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Re: msinaisuhtlaM

Post by JasonL » 06 Feb 2019, 23:33

My own take on this is the tendency to project a trend into the far future never really works out because there are stabilizing factors that create shifted but non catastrophic new equilibria. It will look sufficiently different in a world with few children I expect the perceived value of the experience will shift.

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Re: msinaisuhtlaM

Post by Shem » 07 Feb 2019, 00:15

Painboy wrote:
06 Feb 2019, 20:03
Without population growth the welfare state isn't sustainable.
That's not necessarily true. We need population increases because we've spent decades not preparing for the day when the demographic pig in the python would hit the "non-productive" stage, and now our paygo lifestyle isn't sustainable with so many fewer people paying as we go. But if demographics were more or less stable across generations, you'd always have the same number of working adults supporting the same seniors and minors, so establishing an equilibrium would be orders of magnitude easier.
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Re: msinaisuhtlaM

Post by Eric the .5b » 07 Feb 2019, 00:19

But by then, the polar melt will be complete, and there will be no ice floes.
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Re: msinaisuhtlaM

Post by Aresen » 07 Feb 2019, 00:53

Painboy wrote:
06 Feb 2019, 20:03
This makes me think that as some point in the future governments are going to start paying their people to have babies. Without population growth the welfare state isn't sustainable. Where else are old people going to get their social security and Medicare if there is no future generation to rob.
I believe several countries already are.
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Re: msinaisuhtlaM

Post by Andrew » 07 Feb 2019, 07:57

Eric the .5b wrote:
07 Feb 2019, 00:19
But by then, the polar melt will be complete, and there will be no ice floes.
Now I suddenly care deeply about climate change. We can't run out of ice floes to set people adrift on.
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Re: msinaisuhtlaM

Post by nicole » 07 Feb 2019, 08:11

Painboy wrote:
06 Feb 2019, 20:03
This makes me think that as some point in the future governments are going to start paying their people to have babies. Without population growth the welfare state isn't sustainable. Where else are old people going to get their social security and Medicare if there is no future generation to rob.
We already pay people to have babies, and last year’s tax cut increased the amount.
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Painboy
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Re: msinaisuhtlaM

Post by Painboy » 07 Feb 2019, 10:44

nicole wrote:
07 Feb 2019, 08:11
Painboy wrote:
06 Feb 2019, 20:03
This makes me think that as some point in the future governments are going to start paying their people to have babies. Without population growth the welfare state isn't sustainable. Where else are old people going to get their social security and Medicare if there is no future generation to rob.
We already pay people to have babies, and last year’s tax cut increased the amount.
Obviously it's not enough. :D

I'm also curious if attitudes on immigration will ever lighten up or if they become even more hardened since the folks coming in are going to be the ones most likely to add to the gene pool.

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Re: msinaisuhtlaM

Post by Ellie » 07 Feb 2019, 10:58

Painboy wrote:
07 Feb 2019, 10:44
nicole wrote:
07 Feb 2019, 08:11
We already pay people to have babies, and last year’s tax cut increased the amount.
Obviously it's not enough. :D
I agree. I think people with four kids especially should get lots and lots of money. ;)
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Re: msinaisuhtlaM

Post by Aresen » 07 Feb 2019, 11:19

Andrew wrote:
07 Feb 2019, 07:57
Eric the .5b wrote:
07 Feb 2019, 00:19
But by then, the polar melt will be complete, and there will be no ice floes.
Now I suddenly care deeply about climate change. We can't run out of ice floes to set people adrift on.
We can always feed the sharks instead.
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Re: msinaisuhtlaM

Post by Warren » 07 Feb 2019, 12:55

Hugh Akston wrote:
06 Feb 2019, 22:57
When you realize that more educated women = fewer babies, the entire conservative agenda comes into sharp focus.
Conservative agenda? Neo, paleo, or alt right? Other?
THIS SPACE FOR RENT

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Re: msinaisuhtlaM

Post by Mo » 08 Feb 2019, 04:43

nicole wrote:
07 Feb 2019, 08:11
Painboy wrote:
06 Feb 2019, 20:03
This makes me think that as some point in the future governments are going to start paying their people to have babies. Without population growth the welfare state isn't sustainable. Where else are old people going to get their social security and Medicare if there is no future generation to rob.
We already pay people to have babies, and last year’s tax cut increased the amount.
Not by that much net-net because the tax law also got rid of personal exemptions for dependents.
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Re: msinaisuhtlaM

Post by lunchstealer » 08 Feb 2019, 11:45

Warren wrote:
07 Feb 2019, 12:55
Hugh Akston wrote:
06 Feb 2019, 22:57
When you realize that more educated women = fewer babies, the entire conservative agenda comes into sharp focus.
Conservative agenda? Neo, paleo, or alt right? Other?
Mostly the last two plus So-Cons. The first was more focused on economics and foreign adventurism with just a nod to social conservatism.
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