Iran (so far away)

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thoreau
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Re: Iran (so far away)

Post by thoreau » 11 Sep 2019, 15:54

Stopping Iran from getting nukes is pretty much impossible, short of a massive war that nobody except John Bolton wants. Nukes are inherently desirable, and all 3 US presidents of the 21st century drove home the message that giving up nukes is too dangers. Iraq did it and got invaded by Bush. Libya gave up nukes and got invaded by Obama. Iran gave up nukes and Trump tore up the deal, while NK got nukes and is getting its ass kissed by Trump. Plus, Ukraine gave up nukes and lost territory to Putin in spite of a deal back in the 1990's signed by both the US and Russia.

Nobody will ever again walk away from a nuclear program, and we have Bush, Obama, Trump, and Putin to blame.
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Kolohe
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Re: Iran (so far away)

Post by Kolohe » 11 Sep 2019, 15:56

Looking forward to Iranian students storming the Chinese embassy in 2029 and taking hostages.
when you wake up as the queen of the n=1 kingdom and mount your steed non sequiturius, do you look out upon all you survey and think “damn, it feels good to be a green idea sleeping furiously?" - dhex

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Hugh Akston
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Re: Iran (so far away)

Post by Hugh Akston » 11 Sep 2019, 16:00

Kolohe wrote:
11 Sep 2019, 15:56
Looking forward to Iranian students storming the Chinese embassy in 2029 and taking hostages.
That's what the 5k Chinese security officers are for.
"Is a Lulztopia the best we can hope for?!?" ~Taktix®
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Kolohe
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Re: Iran (so far away)

Post by Kolohe » 11 Sep 2019, 16:03

I made a joke literally 10 years ago that 30 years from then, a couple of PLA majors are going to be looking forward to 'American night' at a Kabul base dinning facility.
when you wake up as the queen of the n=1 kingdom and mount your steed non sequiturius, do you look out upon all you survey and think “damn, it feels good to be a green idea sleeping furiously?" - dhex

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Aresen
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Re: Iran (so far away)

Post by Aresen » 11 Sep 2019, 16:08

thoreau wrote:
11 Sep 2019, 15:54
Stopping Iran from getting nukes is pretty much impossible, short of a massive war that nobody except John Bolton wants. Nukes are inherently desirable, and all 3 US presidents of the 21st century drove home the message that giving up nukes is too dangers.
Even if Bolton got his war, Iran would just bury the centrifuges deeper.
If Trump supporters wanted a tough guy, why did they elect such a whiny bitch? - Mo

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JD
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Re: Iran (so far away)

Post by JD » 11 Sep 2019, 16:15

Hugh Akston wrote:
11 Sep 2019, 16:00
Kolohe wrote:
11 Sep 2019, 15:56
Looking forward to Iranian students storming the Chinese embassy in 2029 and taking hostages.
That's what the 5k Chinese security officers are for.
I do wonder how China's anti-Muslim policies are going to sit with Iran, but I suppose ultimately they all worship power and money.
I sort of feel like a sucker about aspiring to be intellectually rigorous when I could just go on twitter and say capitalism causes space herpes and no one will challenge me on it. - Hugh Akston

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Re: Iran (so far away)

Post by Hugh Akston » 11 Sep 2019, 16:29

JD wrote:
11 Sep 2019, 16:15
Hugh Akston wrote:
11 Sep 2019, 16:00
Kolohe wrote:
11 Sep 2019, 15:56
Looking forward to Iranian students storming the Chinese embassy in 2029 and taking hostages.
That's what the 5k Chinese security officers are for.
I do wonder how China's anti-Muslim policies are going to sit with Iran, but I suppose ultimately they all worship power and money.
It won't really matter in the long run. Once the Chinese garrison is there, the Iranians will find them quite difficult to remove.
"Is a Lulztopia the best we can hope for?!?" ~Taktix®
"Somali pirates are beholden to their hostages in a way that the USG is not." ~Dangerman

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Re: Iran (so far away)

Post by Mo » 11 Sep 2019, 17:48

Painboy wrote:
dbcooper wrote:
10 Sep 2019, 01:45
I wonder if this will have an effect on Iran's nuclear program. I'm not sure if China wants to deal with the instability a nuclear Iran would cause.
Because their history of not supporting unstable nations nuclear ambitions has been so stellar in the past?
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

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Re: Iran (so far away)

Post by Warren » 11 Sep 2019, 17:57

Hugh Akston wrote:
11 Sep 2019, 16:29
JD wrote:
11 Sep 2019, 16:15
Hugh Akston wrote:
11 Sep 2019, 16:00
Kolohe wrote:
11 Sep 2019, 15:56
Looking forward to Iranian students storming the Chinese embassy in 2029 and taking hostages.
That's what the 5k Chinese security officers are for.
I do wonder how China's anti-Muslim policies are going to sit with Iran, but I suppose ultimately they all worship power and money.
It won't really matter in the long run. Once the Chinese garrison is there, the Iranians will find them quite difficult to remove.
Time consuming, but not that difficult.
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thoreau
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Re: Iran (so far away)

Post by thoreau » 11 Sep 2019, 18:04

Persians and Chinese in an imperial game. This should be an amazing contest to watch. Each round will probably last, what, one century? Two?
"They were basically like D&D min maxers, but instead of pissing off their DM, they destroyed the global economy. Also, instead of their DM making a level 7 paladin fight a beholder as punishment, he got a +3 sword of turning."
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Painboy
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Re: Iran (so far away)

Post by Painboy » 11 Sep 2019, 18:29

Mo wrote:
11 Sep 2019, 17:48
Painboy wrote:
dbcooper wrote:
10 Sep 2019, 01:45
I wonder if this will have an effect on Iran's nuclear program. I'm not sure if China wants to deal with the instability a nuclear Iran would cause.
Because their history of not supporting unstable nations nuclear ambitions has been so stellar in the past?
They are not happy with North Korea and I guarantee you they would prefer them not to have to nukes. They tolerate them and only support them just enough not to collapse because the NK is a useful foil to the US and the ROK.

Also with Iran they are going to have substantial financial and strategic interests that they do not have with NK. I would think they would not want to lose all that in a nuclear exchange with Israel.

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Re: Iran (so far away)

Post by dbcooper » 11 Sep 2019, 19:02

JD wrote:
11 Sep 2019, 16:15
Hugh Akston wrote:
11 Sep 2019, 16:00
Kolohe wrote:
11 Sep 2019, 15:56
Looking forward to Iranian students storming the Chinese embassy in 2029 and taking hostages.
That's what the 5k Chinese security officers are for.
I do wonder how China's anti-Muslim policies are going to sit with Iran, but I suppose ultimately they all worship power and money.
Sunni (Uyghur) vs. Shia (Persian)?
Slip inside a sleeping bag.

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JD
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Re: Iran (so far away)

Post by JD » 11 Sep 2019, 19:37

dbcooper wrote:
11 Sep 2019, 19:02
JD wrote:
11 Sep 2019, 16:15
Hugh Akston wrote:
11 Sep 2019, 16:00
Kolohe wrote:
11 Sep 2019, 15:56
Looking forward to Iranian students storming the Chinese embassy in 2029 and taking hostages.
That's what the 5k Chinese security officers are for.
I do wonder how China's anti-Muslim policies are going to sit with Iran, but I suppose ultimately they all worship power and money.
Sunni (Uyghur) vs. Shia (Persian)?
Hm, fair point. Will the Iranians say "Ha, screw those Sunnis anyway", or will they end up taking the classic me-against-my-brother, me-and-my-brother-against-our-cousin stance?
I sort of feel like a sucker about aspiring to be intellectually rigorous when I could just go on twitter and say capitalism causes space herpes and no one will challenge me on it. - Hugh Akston

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thoreau
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Re: Iran (so far away)

Post by thoreau » 11 Sep 2019, 20:56

You don't last very long as a player in the Middle East if you let yourself get dragged in every time somebody is mean to Muslims outside your borders. Iran will defend other Muslims when convenient and ignore their plight when convenient. China is way more important in geopolitics than some poor people in Xingjiang.

Maybe Iran will feel differently when they are stronger, but for now they have to worry about America messing with them from bases on all sides. Their neighbors are a mix of hostile (Gulf Arabs), US-occupied (Iraq, Afghanistan), and too messy to make any reliable long term plans (Turkey, Pakistan). If China wants to play nice with them for a decade or so then it will provide them some security until they can build the only weapon that will 100% keep America at bay.

And historically, China and Persia have had relatively few problems with each other.
"They were basically like D&D min maxers, but instead of pissing off their DM, they destroyed the global economy. Also, instead of their DM making a level 7 paladin fight a beholder as punishment, he got a +3 sword of turning."
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Re: Iran (so far away)

Post by Mo » 12 Sep 2019, 09:44

Painboy wrote:
11 Sep 2019, 18:29
Mo wrote:
11 Sep 2019, 17:48
Painboy wrote:
dbcooper wrote:
10 Sep 2019, 01:45
I wonder if this will have an effect on Iran's nuclear program. I'm not sure if China wants to deal with the instability a nuclear Iran would cause.
Because their history of not supporting unstable nations nuclear ambitions has been so stellar in the past?
They are not happy with North Korea and I guarantee you they would prefer them not to have to nukes. They tolerate them and only support them just enough not to collapse because the NK is a useful foil to the US and the ROK.

Also with Iran they are going to have substantial financial and strategic interests that they do not have with NK. I would think they would not want to lose all that in a nuclear exchange with Israel.
If China really wanted to stop DPRK from having nukes, they would have stopped them. They probably are not happy, but not pissed about it.
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

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Re: Iran (so far away)

Post by thoreau » 12 Sep 2019, 10:08

Once NK got added to the "Axis of Evil", China probably decided that the only thing worse than NK with nukes would be W installing some preemptive democracy in NK.
"They were basically like D&D min maxers, but instead of pissing off their DM, they destroyed the global economy. Also, instead of their DM making a level 7 paladin fight a beholder as punishment, he got a +3 sword of turning."
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Re: Iran (so far away)

Post by Aresen » 12 Sep 2019, 10:17

Mo wrote:
12 Sep 2019, 09:44
If China really wanted to stop DPRK from having nukes, they would have stopped them. They probably are not happy, but not pissed about it.
I doubt this. NK is one of those Frankenstein clients that nations regret setting up and finds they cannot control.
If Trump supporters wanted a tough guy, why did they elect such a whiny bitch? - Mo

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Re: Iran (so far away)

Post by Hugh Akston » 12 Sep 2019, 10:59

Aresen wrote:
12 Sep 2019, 10:17
Mo wrote:
12 Sep 2019, 09:44
If China really wanted to stop DPRK from having nukes, they would have stopped them. They probably are not happy, but not pissed about it.
I doubt this. NK is one of those Frankenstein clients that nations regret setting up and finds they cannot control.
China wouldn't need to control them. If they really wanted NK not to have nukes, they could have invaded, bombed, or wiped out the Kims without much trouble and install a friendlier regime.
"Is a Lulztopia the best we can hope for?!?" ~Taktix®
"Somali pirates are beholden to their hostages in a way that the USG is not." ~Dangerman

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Re: Iran (so far away)

Post by Aresen » 12 Sep 2019, 11:21

Hugh Akston wrote:
12 Sep 2019, 10:59
Aresen wrote:
12 Sep 2019, 10:17
Mo wrote:
12 Sep 2019, 09:44
If China really wanted to stop DPRK from having nukes, they would have stopped them. They probably are not happy, but not pissed about it.
I doubt this. NK is one of those Frankenstein clients that nations regret setting up and finds they cannot control.
China wouldn't need to control them. If they really wanted NK not to have nukes, they could have invaded, bombed, or wiped out the Kims without much trouble and install a friendlier regime.
(Doubt)2
If Trump supporters wanted a tough guy, why did they elect such a whiny bitch? - Mo

Those who know history are doomed to deja vu. - the innominate one

Never bring a knife to a joke fight" - dhex

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thoreau
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Re: Iran (so far away)

Post by thoreau » 12 Sep 2019, 11:54

If there is anyone who might be able to arrange a coup in NK it would be China.
"They were basically like D&D min maxers, but instead of pissing off their DM, they destroyed the global economy. Also, instead of their DM making a level 7 paladin fight a beholder as punishment, he got a +3 sword of turning."
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Re: Iran (so far away)

Post by Painboy » 12 Sep 2019, 13:01

thoreau wrote:
12 Sep 2019, 11:54
If there is anyone who might be able to arrange a coup in NK it would be China.
The whole reason they have propped them up so long is they don't want to deal with the humanitarian crisis and fallout that would result in NK's collapse. It would both swamp them with refugees and give the ROK an opportunity to reunify. China can't push too hard on the NK regime because it's incredibly fragile. The only way they have any real control of them is through the electricity and food they sell/give them. They can turn that down some to apply pressure but too much and the whole thing falls apart.

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Re: Iran (so far away)

Post by D.A. Ridgely » 12 Sep 2019, 14:43

Arguably, China also fears a unified Korea allied with the U.S.

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Re: Iran (so far away)

Post by Aresen » 12 Sep 2019, 14:49

D.A. Ridgely wrote:
12 Sep 2019, 14:43
Arguably, China also fears a unified Korea allied with the U.S.
Is China as frightened by Korea as the US is by Cuba?
If Trump supporters wanted a tough guy, why did they elect such a whiny bitch? - Mo

Those who know history are doomed to deja vu. - the innominate one

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Re: Iran (so far away)

Post by D.A. Ridgely » 12 Sep 2019, 15:16

Aresen wrote:
12 Sep 2019, 14:49
D.A. Ridgely wrote:
12 Sep 2019, 14:43
Arguably, China also fears a unified Korea allied with the U.S.
Is China as frightened by Korea as the US is by Cuba?
The U.S. hasn't been frightened by Cuba since the 1970s if you don't count classic car collectors worried the price of their '57 Chevys might take a hit.

I don't know that China is frightened, per se, by the U.S. in a military sense, but the Middle Kingdom might get a tad touchy about U.S. military bases right on their border. After all, who wouldn't?

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Re: Iran (so far away)

Post by Kolohe » 12 Sep 2019, 16:41

D.A. Ridgely wrote:
12 Sep 2019, 14:43
Arguably, China also fears a unified Korea allied with the U.S.
Arguably, a unified Korea even under a Seoul government would show more affinity towards China, as it (Korea) would finally get back into its wheelhouse of really hating Japan.
when you wake up as the queen of the n=1 kingdom and mount your steed non sequiturius, do you look out upon all you survey and think “damn, it feels good to be a green idea sleeping furiously?" - dhex

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