Private Money!

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Warren
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Re: Private Money!

Post by Warren » 14 Jan 2018, 02:13

JasonL wrote:
14 Jan 2018, 01:04
My intuition is that the tension between the low number of transactions for goods executed in bitcoins vs the valuation of bitcoin will resolve by way of decreased valuation not increased transactions. But that’s just intuition.
The valuation of BTC is looking very bubbly. OTOH there's been a series of sell-offs that keep finding support around 13K. Even if we see a major contraction in valuation, I would be very surprised if it broke below the mid Nov. support level of 6.3K. I'll likely push all my chips into the table before that.

The bigger question in my mind is if and when BTC loses dominance and to what. I think ETH has proven itself and is a good investment now. BCH will only succeed if it can wrest the Bitcoin brand, which it may be capable of doing and is a good hedge bet. I don't like Ripple at all. LTC is proven and will likely hold value, but I don't see it gaining market share. Past that you're into small caps and penny crypts where volatility is high. They can soar one day and give it all back in a week or less. I think privacy as a sector is a good play (DASH XMR ZEC XVG NAV).

No question there's a lot of money moving around on rumor and speculation. Looks a lot like the dotcom bubble.

ETA
Another thing I'm paying attention to is Proof of Work. The jiggawatts being consumed by crypto is unsustainable. Especially if it is to scale. The main alternative is proof of stake. But if decentralization is a goal, and it is, proof of stake is problematic. Though not necessarily more problematic than proof of work. We've seen considerable centralization WRT BTC mining. OTOH miners, developers, and consumers all have to contend with each other and a system of checks and balances has arisen organically as when segwit2x was canceled.
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Shem
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Re: Private Money!

Post by Shem » 14 Jan 2018, 02:43

Think it was my bank: they're not the most easygoing people in the world.
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Dangerman
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Re: Private Money!

Post by Dangerman » 14 Jan 2018, 09:25

Warren wrote:
13 Jan 2018, 21:37
Dangerman wrote:
13 Jan 2018, 21:05
No, Warren, you said it was "super easy to spend crypto". Now please explain how I take my existing $20 FRN and transfer its value to my buddy over here via BTC. Or, if it's easier, tell me how to aquire the equivalent value in BTC without trading US FRN, and transfer it to him. Your choice.
You're being disingenuous with your silly request. The on-ramp to crypto involves a few steps including scanning your ID and linking your bank account. OH NOES! You want it to sound like it's some horrible thing. But it's actually very straight forward and simpler than the on-ramp to the fiat banking/payment system. And once you have a wallet and and exchange account, it's more liquid and easier than dealing with fiat. Which is what I said and NOT AT ALL what you asked.
How is an asset more liquid than cash if you can't liquidate it faster than a cash transaction? I'm going to take a puff off this Sunday morning joint, and remind you that you shouldn't get high off your own supply.

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Re: Private Money!

Post by JasonL » 14 Jan 2018, 10:11

The deal is that cash movement and asset transfers require clearinghouse and or settlement, so in theory those exchanges are not as liquid as they appear to be. There’s a lot of infrastructure built up to make those liquidity constraints irrelevant to most consumers most of the time. It’s what overnight lending is for really. There isn’t anything on earth that is functionally more liquid than US dollars.

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Re: Private Money!

Post by Warren » 14 Jan 2018, 11:14

JasonL wrote:
14 Jan 2018, 10:11
The deal is that cash movement and asset transfers require clearinghouse and or settlement, so in theory those exchanges are not as liquid as they appear to be. There’s a lot of infrastructure built up to make those liquidity constraints irrelevant to most consumers most of the time. It’s what overnight lending is for really. There isn’t anything on earth that is functionally more liquid than US dollars.
Except it isn't. People have to wait for checks to clear all the time.
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Kolohe
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Re: Private Money!

Post by Kolohe » 14 Jan 2018, 11:18

Not if you're bourgie (and as long as the check is merely in the hundreds of dollars)
when you wake up as the queen of the n=1 kingdom and mount your steed non sequiturius, do you look out upon all you survey and think “damn, it feels good to be a green idea sleeping furiously?" - dhex

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Re: Private Money!

Post by Warren » 14 Jan 2018, 11:21

Kolohe wrote:
14 Jan 2018, 11:18
Not if you're bourgie (and as long as the check is merely in the hundreds of dollars)
That's another good point. Say you want to transfer $100M to you family in Botswana. How liquid are your USD now?
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Re: Private Money!

Post by Fin Fang Foom » 14 Jan 2018, 11:54

Warren wrote:
14 Jan 2018, 11:21
Kolohe wrote:
14 Jan 2018, 11:18
Not if you're bourgie (and as long as the check is merely in the hundreds of dollars)
That's another good point. Say you want to transfer $100M to you family in Botswana. How liquid are your USD now?
If you have $100M, you can probably get it done almost immediately, any time, day or night.
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Re: Private Money!

Post by Warren » 14 Jan 2018, 11:59

STUPID COMMENT REDACTED
Last edited by Warren on 14 Jan 2018, 13:05, edited 1 time in total.
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JasonL
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Re: Private Money!

Post by JasonL » 14 Jan 2018, 12:32

Warren wrote:
14 Jan 2018, 11:21
Kolohe wrote:
14 Jan 2018, 11:18
Not if you're bourgie (and as long as the check is merely in the hundreds of dollars)
That's another good point. Say you want to transfer $100M to you family in Botswana. How liquid are your USD now?
Say I want to buy 100M of diverse goods and services, how liquid is my btc?

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Re: Private Money!

Post by Warren » 14 Jan 2018, 12:36

JasonL wrote:
14 Jan 2018, 12:32
Warren wrote:
14 Jan 2018, 11:21
Kolohe wrote:
14 Jan 2018, 11:18
Not if you're bourgie (and as long as the check is merely in the hundreds of dollars)
That's another good point. Say you want to transfer $100M to you family in Botswana. How liquid are your USD now?
Say I want to buy 100M of diverse goods and services, how liquid is my btc?
Whatever.
Let's change the subject.
Does this chart concern you? How much?
Image
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Fin Fang Foom
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Re: Private Money!

Post by Fin Fang Foom » 14 Jan 2018, 12:46

BTC exists on a spectrum between trading in Pets.com stock at it's peak price and trading in Pets.com stock options that would vest in 2005.

It'll also be funny if all the crypto currency fortunes are destroyed due to a carbon tax.
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Re: Private Money!

Post by Warren » 14 Jan 2018, 12:49

Fin Fang Foom wrote:
14 Jan 2018, 12:46
BTC exists on a spectrum between trading in Pets.com stock at it's peak price and trading in Pets.com stock options that would vest in 2005.
You wanna make a bet?
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Re: Private Money!

Post by Fin Fang Foom » 14 Jan 2018, 12:54

Warren wrote:
14 Jan 2018, 12:49
Fin Fang Foom wrote:
14 Jan 2018, 12:46
BTC exists on a spectrum between trading in Pets.com stock at it's peak price and trading in Pets.com stock options that would vest in 2005.
You wanna make a bet?
No, because you'd try to pay me with your pets.com stock.
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Mo
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Re: Private Money!

Post by Mo » 14 Jan 2018, 12:58

Actually, there's now a real time payments network in the US today. It launched in November last year. Granted, as of today, there are only a couple banks connected. By end of 2018, all the big banks will be connected and by 2019, pretty much all the banks that matter will be connected.

Yeah, correspondent banking sucks for cross-border. OTOH, how easy is it to turn $100M of BTC in Botswana into physical cash to buy goods and services. Heck, how easy is it to turn $100M of BTC in the US into liquid cash?
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

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Re: Private Money!

Post by Warren » 14 Jan 2018, 13:00

Fin Fang Foom wrote:
14 Jan 2018, 12:54
Warren wrote:
14 Jan 2018, 12:49
Fin Fang Foom wrote:
14 Jan 2018, 12:46
BTC exists on a spectrum between trading in Pets.com stock at it's peak price and trading in Pets.com stock options that would vest in 2005.
You wanna make a bet?
No, because you'd try to pay me with your pets.com stock.
No no. We can bet whatever you like. I like sig space.
It took about 2 years for pets.com to go to zero. I'll bet you six months of sig space that two years from now BTC is trading above $1. Oh what the hell, I'll bet you that three years from now BTC is trading above $100.
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Re: Private Money!

Post by Warren » 14 Jan 2018, 13:04

Mo wrote:
14 Jan 2018, 12:58
Actually, there's now a real time payments network in the US today. It launched in November last year. Granted, as of today, there are only a couple banks connected. By end of 2018, all the big banks will be connected and by 2019, pretty much all the banks that matter will be connected.

Yeah, correspondent banking sucks for cross-border. OTOH, how easy is it to turn $100M of BTC in Botswana into physical cash to buy goods and services. Heck, how easy is it to turn $100M of BTC in the US into liquid cash?
Well fuck.
This is... Well it's more than embarrassing. I had the wrong definition of what "liquidity" meant. I thought it was about how easy it is to transfer ownership.
So it was me that didn't know what he was talking about.

Mea Culpa.
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Re: Private Money!

Post by Fin Fang Foom » 14 Jan 2018, 13:12

Warren wrote:
14 Jan 2018, 13:04
Mo wrote:
14 Jan 2018, 12:58
Actually, there's now a real time payments network in the US today. It launched in November last year. Granted, as of today, there are only a couple banks connected. By end of 2018, all the big banks will be connected and by 2019, pretty much all the banks that matter will be connected.

Yeah, correspondent banking sucks for cross-border. OTOH, how easy is it to turn $100M of BTC in Botswana into physical cash to buy goods and services. Heck, how easy is it to turn $100M of BTC in the US into liquid cash?
Well fuck.
This is... Well it's more than embarrassing. I had the wrong definition of what "liquidity" meant. I thought it was about how easy it is to transfer ownership.
So it was me that didn't know what he was talking about.

Mea Culpa.
I hereby transfer 100% of my pets.com stock to you.
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Mo
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Re: Private Money!

Post by Mo » 14 Jan 2018, 13:17

Liquidity basically means how easy it is to convert it into something usable. It's generally used for investments, for example, T-Bills are more liquid than public company stock which are more liquid than real estate which is more liquid than private company stock because it becomes progressively more difficult to convert each into spendable money in volume without moving the price. I could sell a billion dollars of T-bills in an hour and the price would not move one whit because the daily volume is $490B. OTOH, if I want to sell a billion dollars of real estate in an hour, well it's impossible, and even if it was possible, I'd have to take a big price hit to find a buyer. If I want to spend a billion dollars cash, the biggest difficulty is finding enough things that I want to buy.
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

no one ever yells worldstar when a pet gets fucked up - dhex

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Warren
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Re: Private Money!

Post by Warren » 14 Jan 2018, 13:23

Fin Fang Foom wrote:
14 Jan 2018, 13:12
I hereby transfer 100% of my pets.com stock to you.
Too bad you don't have any BTCs
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Re: Private Money!

Post by thoreau » 14 Jan 2018, 13:47

Guys, cut Warren some slack for not understanding what liquidity is. Economics is only barely a STEM field. It's much closer to librul artz.
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Re: Private Money!

Post by D.A. Ridgely » 14 Jan 2018, 13:56

Mo wrote:
14 Jan 2018, 13:17
If I want to spend a billion dollars cash, the biggest difficulty is finding enough things that I want to buy.
I wouldn't have that much trouble spending a billion dollars. Real estate, art, a jet or two, etc. Okay, so I might have buyer's remorse over upward of a third of my purchases, but when you're in the zone to buy your own private island, a billion ain't that much.

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Re: Private Money!

Post by Warren » 14 Jan 2018, 14:15

D.A. Ridgely wrote:
14 Jan 2018, 13:56
Mo wrote:
14 Jan 2018, 13:17
If I want to spend a billion dollars cash, the biggest difficulty is finding enough things that I want to buy.
I wouldn't have that much trouble spending a billion dollars. Real estate, art, a jet or two, etc. Okay, so I might have buyer's remorse over upward of a third of my purchases, but when you're in the zone to buy your own private island, a billion ain't that much.
Hookers and blow. What could possibly go wrong?
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Re: Private Money!

Post by Kolohe » 14 Jan 2018, 14:35

If I had a billion dollars, I'd have one thousand bare naked ladies.
when you wake up as the queen of the n=1 kingdom and mount your steed non sequiturius, do you look out upon all you survey and think “damn, it feels good to be a green idea sleeping furiously?" - dhex

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Re: Private Money!

Post by thoreau » 14 Jan 2018, 15:15

Kolohe wrote:
14 Jan 2018, 14:35
If I had a billion dollars, I'd have one thousand bare naked ladies.
You did that just for me, didn't you?
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