Search found 4799 matches

by Jadagul
Yesterday, 20:38
Forum: General Chatter
Topic: Calling 2020 for Entropy
Replies: 673
Views: 55924

Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

One of my favorite theories about 2016 is that the election of Obama effectively communicated to low-information voters which party was the pro-black-people party. And thus it solidified the racist/white-ethnic voting bloc for the Republicans, when a lot of them hadn't really registered the racial ...
by Jadagul
Yesterday, 20:15
Forum: General Chatter
Topic: Calling 2020 for Entropy
Replies: 673
Views: 55924

Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

One of my favorite theories about 2016 is that the election of Obama effectively communicated to low-information voters which party was the pro-black-people party. And thus it solidified the racist/white-ethnic voting bloc for the Republicans, when a lot of them hadn't really registered the racial a...
by Jadagul
Yesterday, 05:06
Forum: General Chatter
Topic: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!
Replies: 1329
Views: 46641

Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Depends on a lot of things. This is relatively persuasive to the idea that you can get symptomatically sick and not get medium-term immunity. But it matters a great deal how common that is; if one person in a hundred, or in twenty, is vulnerable to reinfection, that's unfortunate but basically norma...
by Jadagul
11 Jul 2020, 15:34
Forum: General Chatter
Topic: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!
Replies: 1329
Views: 46641

Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Looking to overspend more in the $3k range, but thanks. :)
by Jadagul
11 Jul 2020, 15:08
Forum: General Chatter
Topic: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!
Replies: 1329
Views: 46641

Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Not having a lot of friends is hard! (I am a little concerned that it'll be hard to meet people for at least my first year there, but hey, I do have like a dozen or two friends out there already.) Moving at the end of July. Think the plan is to wildly overspend for the first year, live close to work...
by Jadagul
11 Jul 2020, 14:49
Forum: General Chatter
Topic: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!
Replies: 1329
Views: 46641

Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

I have kept myself to a pretty strict lockdown. I've been out shopping like four times since mid-March, taken a couple masked walks in the park with friends, and I have a couple people in my social bubble I see closely. My current plan is to keep that up until either vaccination or suppression. But ...
by Jadagul
11 Jul 2020, 14:40
Forum: General Chatter
Topic: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!
Replies: 1329
Views: 46641

Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Would you feel the same way if you lived in New Zealand? No, not remotely. Yeah, so there's at least one more win condition. Vaccine, herd immunity, or suppression. I expect the first to come well before the third here, sadly. (Honestly, there's one more off-ramp. If it becomes clear that neither a...
by Jadagul
10 Jul 2020, 19:10
Forum: General Chatter
Topic: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!
Replies: 1329
Views: 46641

Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Clearly, there's a market for masks with drinking straws attached. My mother made me a mask with a straw hole (with a flap that buttons down over the straw hole). So I had some people knee jerk about me being a stupid trumpkin based on my observations that 1) a mask mandate if actually enforced isn...
by Jadagul
08 Jul 2020, 03:54
Forum: General Chatter
Topic: The Enemy of My Enemy
Replies: 582
Views: 34976

Re: The Enemy of My Enemy

Stepping back a bit, Eric, it seems like you are _agreeing_ with me on the factual issue that comes up in this debate. (While disagreeing with me on, I guess, the tactical and strategic levels?) Like, the "cancel culture isn't a thing" side mostly seems to be arguing that the left isn't hostile to f...
by Jadagul
08 Jul 2020, 03:40
Forum: General Chatter
Topic: The Enemy of My Enemy
Replies: 582
Views: 34976

Re: The Enemy of My Enemy

Yup, I was surprised the first time I heard anyone "on the left" give a different narrative of the Skokie case from the one Shem just sketched. And that first time happened like a year ago, and it was on Tumblr, and it was a shitty callout post of the "The ACLU isn't all good guys, I just found out ...
by Jadagul
08 Jul 2020, 02:35
Forum: General Chatter
Topic: The Enemy of My Enemy
Replies: 582
Views: 34976

Re: The Enemy of My Enemy

I wouldn't want to swear to this, because memory is a fickle bitch, but I thought the Skokie case was in, like, my school textbooks as an example of how great the American commitment to free speech is. I, personally, think free speech is one of the most important values to protect. I know that I'm i...
by Jadagul
08 Jul 2020, 00:21
Forum: General Chatter
Topic: The Enemy of My Enemy
Replies: 582
Views: 34976

Re: The Enemy of My Enemy

I am not as old as the Skokie case. But I had always heard of that as a shining example of what the ACLU and the left stood for. I would like them to still stand for it. Look into the fallout of the case and how much support the ACLU lost. Without looking into it at the moment, that's horrifying th...
by Jadagul
08 Jul 2020, 00:10
Forum: General Chatter
Topic: The Enemy of My Enemy
Replies: 582
Views: 34976

Re: The Enemy of My Enemy

I am not as old as the Skokie case. But I had always heard of that as a shining example of what the ACLU and the left stood for.

I would like them to still stand for it.
by Jadagul
07 Jul 2020, 21:46
Forum: General Chatter
Topic: The Enemy of My Enemy
Replies: 582
Views: 34976

Re: The Enemy of My Enemy

4) This can in fact turn in to an unfair and unproductive double standard. I almost don't bother to object to Trump being a fucker, because he's always a fucker and I don't expect him to listen to me. Trump and Trumpistas are _really bad_ on this but I don't comment on that as much because (a) I ki...
by Jadagul
07 Jul 2020, 19:37
Forum: General Chatter
Topic: The Enemy of My Enemy
Replies: 582
Views: 34976

Re: The Enemy of My Enemy

A couple thoughts on the whole cancel culture thing: 1) Cancel culture is definitely not the biggest short-term threat to American political/civil society. Trump's corrupt ethnonationalism is much worse. 2) I can to criticize more than one thing at a time. 3) I think a thing Thoreau (I think?) used ...
by Jadagul
06 Jul 2020, 20:27
Forum: General Chatter
Topic: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!
Replies: 1329
Views: 46641

Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

In this case there's debate because WHO (especially) and certain other institutions are really bad at updating out of old rigid frameworks quickly. There doesn't seem to be debate, per se; there are the people who say "this is the thing that's happening" and the people who say "You haven't shown us ...
by Jadagul
06 Jul 2020, 18:41
Forum: General Chatter
Topic: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!
Replies: 1329
Views: 46641

Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Also there's air circulation; you want to keep the amount of ambient virus in the air down. If you're outdoors and fairly distanced from people, you don't need a mask. Otherwise, you kind of do. But also, "does masking work better than distancing" is a dumb question. They're not mutually exclusive. ...
by Jadagul
06 Jul 2020, 18:14
Forum: General Chatter
Topic: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!
Replies: 1329
Views: 46641

Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

1) Hugh is correct that there are no gold standard RCTs showing that masks are effective. There are also no gold standard trials showing that parachutes are effective. (Well, there is one , I guess.) 2) In situations where we can't reasonably conduct gold standard RCTs, we have to and should use oth...
by Jadagul
03 Jul 2020, 18:32
Forum: General Chatter
Topic: Random covid-19 observations
Replies: 704
Views: 27094

Re: Random covid-19 observations

or whatever other terrible flavors they have. There are probably multiple security videos out there over the years of me angrily chucking an almost-full bottle of vanilla coke at a sidewalk garbage can. I don't know how anyone can drink that stuff but if they have to sell it they should please make...
by Jadagul
27 Jun 2020, 02:13
Forum: General Chatter
Topic: Observations of the Random sort
Replies: 8976
Views: 389439

Re: Observations of the Random sort

The term is new to me, but I think I get what you mean by "Physicists' Disease" from what is said above, but just to confirm, could you spell it out? (My guess: A tendency of an expert in one area of science to believe he/she is therefore qualified to speak authoritatively on all areas of science.)...
by Jadagul
26 Jun 2020, 22:02
Forum: General Chatter
Topic: Observations of the Random sort
Replies: 8976
Views: 389439

Re: Observations of the Random sort

Yeah, I know a lot of programmers with a bad case of Physicists' Disease.

The funny thing is that the programmers who have the worst Physicists' Disease also tend to be super intimidated by/deferential to pure mathematicians. So I get to have a lot of fun with them.
by Jadagul
26 Jun 2020, 19:53
Forum: General Chatter
Topic: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!
Replies: 1329
Views: 46641

Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Based on what we know about coronaviruses, it would be surprising if recovery didn't generally grant immunity for at least a moderate amount of time.

And it looks like that length of time is at least six months, since we still have zero clear cases of reinfection.
by Jadagul
26 Jun 2020, 04:27
Forum: General Chatter
Topic: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!
Replies: 1329
Views: 46641

Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

For better or for worse, those numbers don't really exist. They're pretty hard numbers to generate, to be fair.

But I've seen a bunch of epidemiologists etc. mourning the fact that we don't have them.
by Jadagul
24 Jun 2020, 19:28
Forum: General Chatter
Topic: Random covid-19 observations
Replies: 704
Views: 27094

Re: Random covid-19 observations

I may be wrong but part of the reason that was the guidance before is because for the majority of respiratory diseases, wearing masks when you’re asymptomatic doesn’t do much. So the perceived cost was low, with the benefit of preserving PPE is high. Now it turned out to be wrong because of the nat...
by Jadagul
24 Jun 2020, 18:52
Forum: General Chatter
Topic: Random covid-19 observations
Replies: 704
Views: 27094

Re: Random covid-19 observations

Nicole, thanks for rounding up those links. I knew that was a thing but was having trouble finding a bunch of links to the mid-March advice easily, and I need them for a project.